Projecting the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft using our Team Needs Analysis and identifying the best available player based on draft position. The NFL Draft is all about drafting the best value to fill a position of need.
We use a combination of our internal player rankings, composite player rankings to match the best available fit based on the needs of each team.
We are not using a trade thought process, but in some cases, we pick the best fit, assuming that a trade might be needed to get a particular player that would fit a team need.
Instant Impact Value
Instant impact value includes the players in the draft who can make an impact immediately, whether its a position of need or not. A great example is Saquan Barkley, who when drafted, made an immediate impact. Barkley is a high-level example and a generational talent and not every instant impact player is a generational type. A non-generational example might be the impact that Devin Bush had at MLB for the Steelers a season ago. Instant Impact can also be attributed to the team a player joins. For example; If CeeDee Lamb joins the Chiefs we can assume right away he would be an instant impact player. This process is mostly a subjective way of categorizing each player.
Long Term Value
We are weighing the long term value when making our picks. For example, in a WR heavy draft, it might be wiser to pick an IOL or T in round one to fill a need for the long term, especially for teams who have a franchise QB already in place. Long Term Value players are those who we believe can produce at a consistent level for 8-10 years in the NFL.
Coaches and GM's love to draft players with high upside that they believe can develop. These players are higher risk values. These players might have been high level in college but may lack the consistency needed to become a long term value in the NFL.
32. Kansas City DT JAVON KINLAW SOUTH CAROLINA Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: LB, DT, CB
The Super Bowl Champions are far from exempt as it pertains to team needs. The Chiefs have holes in their defense at all three levels, and because the NFL is a pass-first league, we believe the Chiefs will try to upgrade at corner. Depending on who is available at this point in the draft, the Chiefs could go with a DT to plug in right next to Chris Jones.
31. San Francisco CB A.J. TERRELL, CLEMSON Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: CB, S, IOL
The 49ers have to upgrade at CB in 2020. Richard Sherman is aging but still playing at a high level, but they need more stability opposite Sherman. The 49ers could use an upgrade on the interior of their offensive line (G), but at the end of the day, we believe they will draft a young corner.
30. Green Bay WR LAVISKA SHENAULT, Colorado Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, T, TE
The 2020 NFL Draft offers the Packers the chance to grab a high-level WR in the first round, but the depth at WR does offer the Packers a shot to address a need in their front seven. Green Bay couldn't stop Raheem Mostert in the NFC Title game, and during the regular season, the Packers ranked in the middle of the league (16th) in missed tackle rate (10.42%). Depending on the free agency market, the Packers might not be able to pass on drafting a high-level defender and waiting until the 2nd or 3rd to draft a WR. Based on need, we think they go defense, but we are going with WR in this spot to fill a need opposite of Davante Adams.
29. Tennessee EDGE A.J. EPENESA, IOWA Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: EDGE, DL, IOL
The Titans had a hard time getting pressure on Mahomes in the AFC Championship game. During the regular season, the Titans ranked 14th in sacks and 15th in overall HIP Rate (High Impact Play Rate) on defense. For the Titans to get back to the AFC title in 2020, they will need to improve their pass rush. The Titans will most likely draft an edge rusher in round one.
28. Baltimore WR CHASE CLAYPOOL, NOTRE DAME Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, EDGE, LB
The Ravens need a physical outside WR to line up opposite of Hollywood Brown. This is a no brain'er and should be one of the more obvious choices in this draft. The Ravens have additional needs on the interior of their offensive line after the Yanda retirement. They will be looking to add a pass rusher to a defense that ranked 10th overall in Defensive HIP Rate (14%) but only accumulated 37 sacks while ranking atop the NFL in blitz rate.
27. Seattle OT JOSHUA JONES, HOUSTON Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: IOL, T, WR
The Seahawks need to upgrade their offensive line to protect their most significant asset in Russell Wilson. We expect the Seahawks to snag the best available guard or tackle. The Seahawks could pick as many as three offensive linemen in the 2020 draft.
26. Miami f/HOU IOL CESAR RUIZ MICHIGAN Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: QB, IOL, EDGE
Miami improved quite a bit late in the year in a lot of areas. They also have three first-round picks. The Dolphins have a lot of leverage in this draft, and if they are wise, they should draft Tua at pick five and go with two additional offensive linemen (Guard and Tackle). The thought process is that Tua will sit year one giving the Dolphins a season to develop their newly drafted offensive line. So we think they go with OL, but if Swift is available this late the Dolphins will add him to the mix with Tua, assuming Tua is available at number 5.
25. Minnesota CB JAYLON JOHNSON, UTAH Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: IOL, CB, T
Minnesota needs to upgrade its secondary and offensive line. Depending on who is available in this spot, they could go either way. We are going to go with the offensive line in this spot. Minnesota could not block the 49ers in the playoffs and need to upgrade both interior offensive line spots.
24. New Orleans LB KENNETH MURRAY, OKLAHOMA Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: CB, LB, IOL
The Saints need to improve their secondary and dependent on who is available at this point in round number one; we assume this will be the area they want to upgrade. The Saints struggled against slot WR's in 2019 and can use a corner who can play the nickel. They should also consider an upgrade at Linebacker.
23. New England S GRANT DELPIT, LSU Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: T, WR, TE
The Patriots need a WR, and this is the perfect draft to get the right one. Regardless of what they decide to do at QB, the Patriots need to fill their void at outside WR opposite of N'keal Harry, and TE. The Patriots might be prepared to move up in the draft to get a QB to replace Brady if he decides to move on. The Patriots have a lot of variables that make this pick challenging to project. They have a need at safety, and this might be too early to go safety but it might be too early unless Grant Delpit falls into their lap.
22. Buffalo WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON, LSU Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, DL, EDGE
The Bills need a WR, but they might be able to wait until later in the draft due to the depth at the position. They will likely add an interior OL as they continue to build their OL. Based on the pick, if the right WR falls to them, they might go the WR route, but if they want to continue to build an AFC contender, they will need to keep building their already improving OL. The other need is on the defensive front.
21. Philadelphia WR HENRY RUGGS, ALABAMA Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, CB, LB
The Eagles need receivers. That is all. I don't foresee any other route in the draft for the Eagles in round one. But they need corners. They have work to do in the draft and free agency. We believe they will go with a WR in this spot. The draft is about value, so if the right DB falls into their lap at this spot, they might go the DB route. Remember, this NFL draft has a lot of WR depth, and the Eagles might be able to wait until round two.