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Biggest Surprise: Green Bay Trading up to Grab Jordan Love
Evaluating the first round of the NFL Draft can tell a story as to what a team might be looking to do moving forward in the later rounds. Some exciting picks were made yesterday with the biggest shock of the draft coming at the bottom third of the draft order when Green Bay traded up with Miami from pick 30 to 26 so that they could snag Utah State QB, Jordan Love. The Packers might be looking to repeat history in the same way they did when they Drafted Rogers to replace Favre at the backend of his time in Green Bay.
Jordan Love the Prospect
Love is the 4th ranked QB on our big board and the 34th ranked prospect. Jordan Love, a three-star recruit from Bakersfield Ca, had one FBS offer out of high school (Utah State). At 6-4, 224 lbs, Love has prototypical NFL size to go with a big arm. NFL scouts believe he has the tools to be an NFL starter. But, his inconsistent play in 2019 (141.9 QB rating, 49th nationally) created some skepticism following a stellar 2018 season where Love ranked 10th nationally with a 158.2 QB rating.
Biggest Surprise Honorable Mention: Dallas Drafts CeeDee Lamb
The Dallas Cowboys Drafting Oklahoma WR CeeDee Lamb at 17th overall. Lamb is our 3rd ranked WR and 8th overall on our Top 100 Big Board. Lamb was not expected to make this deep into round one and the Cowboys got a steal.
The Best Value: Tua Tagovailoa to Miami
We ranked Tua as the top prospect based on his potential upside and not as a way to slight Joe Burrow. Burrow and Tua are 1A and 1B, and most draft "experts" penalized Tua because of the hip injury in 2019. Then they try to back that up by saying that Tua is injury prone because of two prior ankle injuries both surgically repaired. Erase the hip injury, and a higher rate of analysts would have had Tua as the number one rated QB.
Tua Tagovailoa the Prospect
Tua is a versatile athlete who, prior to the hip injury, used his legs to keep plays alive. He has elite level accuracy at all three levels and is willing to stand in the pocket to make a big throw. Tua's game at the next level will hinge on his ability to use his legs to keep plays alive. He is not a burner at 6-0 217lbs, but before the hip injury, he was able to put pressure on defenses with his legs in the zone-read game. Tua excels in the RPO game, and whoever drafts Tua will need to be sure to implement an RPO heavy attack.
Regardless of the opponent, Tua rarely struggled to post a high-level QB rating. Since 2018, Tua has posted a QBR of 200 or better in 16 of 24 games (67%). Tua has averaged a 213.98 QBR since 2018. When facing a top 25 opponent since 2018, Tua has posted a 17/6 TD/INT ratio.
The Best Value Honorable Mention: The Saints drafting IOL Cesar Ruiz at 24th overall.
Ruiz is our top-rated IOL (28th Overall). Ruiz is a versatile interior lineman who can play both center and guard. The Saints needed to find a replacement for Larry Warford whose contract is set to expire in 2021.
The Head Scratching Move of Round One: Las Vegas Picking Ohio State CB Damon Arnette
The Raiders had the 12th, and 19th picks in round one. The Raiders grabbed our 2nd rated WR Henry Ruggs III at 12th overall and followed up by grabbing Ohio State CB Damon Arnette. Arnette is ranked 50th overall and as the 8th best CB, according to our Top 100 Big Board. Arnette does not fit the mold of a 1st round pick; his forty at the combine was average (4.56). A three-year starter at Ohio State, Arnette had his best season in 2019 but was often victimized by opponents in 2017-18, giving up a near 800 yards receiving in both years combined.
The Raiders have to see something to take Arnette in this spot when Kristian Fulton and Jeff Gladney, who is ranked higher on our board. His experience as a three-year starter and leadership traits while at Ohio State might have been the two top factors.
Head Scratching Honorable Mention: The Falcons Drafting A.J. Terrell at 16th.
Terrell was at least ranked among our top five CB's on our Big Board, but the Falcons left LSU CB Kristian Fulton (3rd), and Jeff Gladney (4th) on the board. Maybe the headscratcher is more about how we ranked the top five corners more than it is why the Falcons didn't go with the other two ahead of Terrell.
Terrell as a Prospect
Terrell is a lengthy CB (6-1, 195), who had a solid career at Clemson, who was not challenged often in 2019 breaking up four passes on six defended with 2 INT's. He picked off six total INT's in three seasons at Clemson, including the memorable pick six vs. Tua Tagovailoa on Alabama's opening drive of the 2019 National Title game. Terrell posted a 4.42 at the NFL Combine, and that with his upside based on performance at Clemson is what likely solidified him on Atlanta's big board as the number three CB.
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