Our NFL Draft Player Rankings are compiled using the same Situational Analysis process used at a commercial level. We start by evaluating their performance against top competition and then work our way through big game situations such as 3rd down production, or big-time throws in big-time moments late in a game. The process can be tedious, but the system allows us to utilize a consistent process when evaluating an entire team or an individual player.
Tua's Late Rise
We had Tua as low as 5th earlier in the process. The top Alabama Prospect for a long time was Jerry Jeudy, who we had ranked 4th. So how does Tua all of a sudden overtake Joe Burrow, this late in the game? We took a second look at Tua's film, and throughout his film, we recognized franchise QB traits similar to how we perceive Joe Burrow, but the one question mark that arises when you discuss Tua vs. Joe Burrow, or even Justin Herbert (not in the same league by the way), is Tua's health. Before the 2019 college football season, we believed that Tua was the top-rated QB and that he was going to be the top pick in the 2020 NFL draft. But, Joe Burrow goes out and has an insane 2019 season breaking records, winning the Heisman Trophy and leading his LSU Tigers to a National Title while Tua played in 9 games before dislocating his hip.
The What if Factor With Tua
What if Tua is able to finish the 2019 season without injury? Before Tua's injury, he was playing at an elite level on par with Joe Burrow in most categories. In fact, through 9 games, Tua was on a 15 game pace to throw for 4734 yds, 55 TD's and 5 INT's. Compared to Burrow who played 15 games and compiled 5671 yds, 60 TD's and 6 INT's. Tua finished the year with a QB rating of 206.93 compared to burrows 15 game 201.96. Tua's yards per attempt through 9 games in 2019, 11.3, ties him for first with Jalen Hurts (11.3), followed by Burrow in 2nd nationally (10.8).
The film on Tua is very strong and we put together a video scouting report highlighting Tua's abilities and why we believe he has the same opportunity as Joe Burrow to become a franchise NFL player.