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Living Mock Draft
As free agency and trades happen leading up to the NFL draft, we realize that team needs will change dependent on the situation. Check back daily for updates as trades, or free agency pickups are happening.
Projecting the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft using our Team Needs Analysis and identifying the best available player based on draft position. The NFL Draft is all about drafting the best value to fill a position of need.
The Process
We use a combination of our internal player rankings, composite player rankings to match the best available fit based on the needs of each team.
No Trades
We are not using a trade thought process, but in some cases, we pick the best fit, assuming that a trade might be needed to get a particular player that would fit a team need.
Instant Impact Value
Instant impact value includes the players in the draft who can make an impact immediately, whether its a position of need or not. A great example is Saquan Barkley, who when drafted, made an immediate impact. Barkley is a high-level example and a generational talent and not every instant impact player is a generational type. A non-generational example might be the impact that Devin Bush had at MLB for the Steelers a season ago. Instant Impact can also be attributed to the team a player joins. For example; If CeeDee Lamb joins the Chiefs we can assume right away he would be an instant impact player. This process is mostly a subjective way of categorizing each player.
Long Term Value
We are weighing the long term value when making our picks. For example, in a WR heavy draft, it might be wiser to pick an IOL or T in round one to fill a need for the long term, especially for teams who have a franchise QB already in place. Long Term Value players are those who we believe can produce at a consistent level for 8-10 years in the NFL.
Potential Upside
Coaches and GM's love to draft players with high upside that they believe can develop. These players are higher risk values. These players might have been high level in college but may lack the consistency needed to become a long term value in the NFL.
1. Cincinnati QB JOE BURROW, LSU Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: QB, IOL, EDGE
The most obvious pick in this draft is Joe Burrow. The Bengals are moving on from Andy Dalton, but they have a lot of needs. Whoever is at QB needs protection so the Bengals will have to improve their offensive line. The Defensive line also needs depth.
2. Washington EDGE CHASE YOUNG, OSU Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: T, WR, EDGE The player most draft pundits think is the best in this draft cycle is Chase Young and it is hard to argue. But the Redskins have floated the possibility of moving on from Haskins and Pursuing Tua Tagovailoa. They have needs on the OL, and at WR.
3. Detroit CB JEFF OKUDAH, OSU Instant Impact Value
3/17/20 *(Original projection before signing LB Jamie Collins) Detroit LB/S ISAIAH SIMMONS, CLEMSON Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: EDGE, LB, CB
The Lions need to improve all three levels of their defense. The defensive back opposite of Slay needs to be upgraded. The LB position has underperformed the last two years. They are in great spot and rumors have been spun that they have interest in Tua, others believe they go with the best CB in this draft cycle (Jeff Okudah), but after Isaiah Simmons combine performance it might be too difficult to pass on his versatile ability.
4. NY Giants T TRISTAN WIRFS, IOWA Long Term Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: T, EDGE, LB The Giants need to draft a tackle, or two. They also need to fix their secondary on a defense that ranked 30th in 20+ yard plays allowed and in the bottom third of our 2019 defensive HIP Rate.
5. Miami QB TUA TAGOVAILOA, ALABAMA Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: QB, T, CB
Miami will draft Tua if available in this spot, or will they? Tua is not guaranteed to play in year one so the Dolphins might need to ride with Ryan Fitzpatrick for a year to assure Tua is 100%. Regardless of who is at QB, the Dolphins need help up front.
6. LA Chargers QB JUSTIN HERBERT, OREGON Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: QB, T, IOL Philip Rivers is on the way out, so te obvious pick at this spot is QB assuming Herbert or Tua is available you can expect the Chargers to go this route. They will need to also draft IOL, and T to protect their investment.
7. Carolina DT DERRICK BROWN, AUBURN Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: IOL, CB, DL
The Panthers need a lot of help. The offensive line will be a priority in this draft. Whoever they have at QB needs to be protected. The defense needs depth and talent upfront so it wouldn't be a surprise if they go after a DT in round one.
8. Arizona T JEDRICK WILLS, ALABAMA Long Term Value
3/16/20 *(Original Pick before Hopkins Trade) WR JERRY JEUDY, ALABAMA Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: T, IOL, DL
The Cardinals need to protect their long term investment at QB. They should draft an Offensive lineman in this spot, but it might prove too challenging to pass on one of the top WR's in this draft. The Cardinals need help at every position.
3/16/20 Update: Arizona is working on finalizing a trade deal for Houston Texan WR Deandre Hopkins per Adam Schefter. We expect that the Cardinals will pick up one of the more coveted Tackles in this draft.
9. Jacksonville T ANDREW THOMAS, GEORGIA Long Term Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: S, T, IOL Jacksonville needs help up front. The question mark is if they believe that Cam Robinson will develop into the player they thought he could become. They can use a lot of help on defense at all three levels.
10. Cleveland LB/S ISAIAH SIMMONS, CLEMSON Instant Impact Value
3/17/20 *(Original projection before signing LB Jamie Collins and Cleveland Signing T Jack Conklin)
OT MEKHI BECTON, LOUISVILLE Long Term Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: T, IOL, LB
Cleveland needs to fix the offensive line from the inside out. They also have needs on defense. The Browns need to upgrade at LB and depth is needed on the defensive line.
11. NY JETS WR JERRY JEUDY, ALABAMA Instant Impact Value
Update 3/19/20 (Signed George Fant) OT MEKHI BECTON, LOUISVILLE Long Term Value
3/17/20 *(Jeudy, was the Jet's second option after not being in a position to land one of the top 3 tackles until the Jamie Collins to Detroit signing allowing the Lions to go get Okudah filling two of their needs. Cleveland signed Jack Conklin and now Mekhi Becton lands in the Jets lap. NY Jets WR JERRY JEUDY, ALABAMA Instant Impact Value
3/16/20*(Original Pick before Hou-AZ Hopkins Trade) T JEDRICK WILLS, ALABAMA Long Term Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: T, IOL, WR
Protect your top asset by adding long term value. The Jets need to keep Darnold upright if they want to contend in the AFC East. The next priority is at WR and the interior of their offensive line.
12. Las Vegas WR CEEDEE LAMB, OKLAHOMA Instant Impact Value
(Update 3/19/20) Raiders Have to go Back to CeeDee because of changes ahead of them in the draft. Jets signed a tackle in free agency and are projected to take a WR. Las Vegas WR JERRY JEUDY, ALABAMA Instant Impact Value
3/17/20 The Raiders appeared poised to snag Lamb until the reverberations of free agency and trades changed how we are projecting the picks ahead of the Raiders.
(Original Pick before until the Cleveland signed Jack Conklin leading them to not draft a tackle and Becton landing in the Jets lap). WR CEEDEE LAMB, OKLAHOMA Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, CB, LB
The Raiders are desperate for an elite WR after leaning on a TE (Darren Waller) a season ago. The Raiders are also in urgent need of an upgrade at LB. The consensus has been that the Raiders will take any of the elite WR's on the board (Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor. If any of the three are on the board, expect them to snag one. Don't be surprised if the Raiders try to trade up to secure Lamb or Jeudy.
13. San Francisco Via IND DT JAVON KINLAW SOUTH CAROLINA Instant Impact Value
Update 3/19/20 (Changes ahead of them in the draft lead the 49ers to change their pick from Lamb). WR CEEDEE LAMB, OKLAHOMA Instant Impact Value
3/17/20 (Colts Trade 13th pick to SF for Deforest Buckner)
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: CB, WR, CB
The 49ers have to upgrade at CB in 2020. Richard Sherman is aging but still playing at a high level, but they need more stability opposite Sherman. The 49ers could use an upgrade on the interior of their offensive line (G), but at the end of the day, we believe they will draft a young corner.
14. Tampa Bay RB JONATHON TAYLOR WISCONSIN Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: S, CB, RB
The Bucs need help all over and will likely target the best available player at either of the three primary positions of need. In this case, the Bucs address a need at RB that has plagued them the last two seasons.
15. Denver WR JALEN REAGOR, TCU Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, G, CB
The Broncos need to add another WR to the mix opposite of Courtland Sutton. The other issue is at Guard where they need a lot of help in order to keep Drew Lock upright.
The Broncos could also use a corner opposite Chris Harris.
16. Atlanta CB KRISTIAN FULTON, LSU Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: T, EDGE, CB
It feels like an eternity since the Falcons Super Bowl collapse vs the Patriots. In NFL years it has been an eternity and the clock is running out on Matt Ryan. The Falcons aren't in the market for a new QB yet but will be in the coming years. For now, they need to upgrade their secondary and find an EDGE rusher.
17. Dallas S XAVIER MCKINNEY, ALABAMA Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: DL, CB, S
The Cowboys need to upgrade or replace members in their secondary. The Cowboys are only a few pieces and few contracts away from becoming Super Bowl contenders. Once they sure up their secondary, they will need to find a DT.
18. Miami f/PIT T ISAIAH WILSON, GEORGIA Instant Impact Value
3/17/20 *(Original projection prior to Dolphins acquiring EDGE/LB Kyle Van Noy). EDGE K'LAVON CHAISSON, LSU Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: QB, T, WR
Miami will draft Tua if available in this spot, or will they? Tua is not guaranteed to play in year one so the Dolphins might need to ride with Ryan Fitzpatrick for a year to assure Tua is 100%. Regardless of who is at QB, the Dolphins need help up front.
19. Las Vegas f/CHI LB PATRICK QUEEN, LSU Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, CB, LB
The Raiders are desperate for an elite WR after leaning on a TE (Darren Waller) a season ago. The Raiders are also in urgent need of an upgrade at LB. The consensus has been that the Raiders will take any of the elite WR's on the board (Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor. If any of the three are on the board, expect them to snag one. Don't be surprised if the Raiders try to trade up to secure Lamb or Jeudy.
20. Jacksonville f/LAR CB CJ HENDERSON, FLORIDA Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: DL, LB, CB
Jacksonville needs help upfront. The question mark is if they believe that Cam Robinson will develop into the player they thought he could become. They can use a lot of help on defense at all three levels.
21. Philadelphia WR HENRY RUGGS, ALABAMA Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, CB, LB
The Eagles need receivers. That is all. I don't foresee any other route in the draft for the Eagles in round one. But they need corners. They have work to do in the draft and free agency. We believe they will go with a WR in this spot. The draft is about value, so if the right DB falls into their lap at this spot, they might go the DB route. Remember, this NFL draft has a lot of WR depth, and the Eagles might be able to wait until round two.
22. Minnesota via BUF WR DENZEL MIMS BAYLOR Instant Impact Value
*(Updated post-DIggs Trade) T EZRA CLEVELAND, BOISE STATE Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: IOL, CB, WR
Minnesota needs to upgrade its secondary and offensive line. Depending on who is available in this spot, they could go either way. We are going to go with the offensive line in this spot. Minnesota could not block the 49ers in the playoffs and need to upgrade both interior offensive line spots.
23. New England S GRANT DELPIT, LSU Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: T, WR, TE
The Patriots need a WR, and this is the perfect draft to get the right one. Regardless of what they decide to do at QB, the Patriots need to fill their void at outside WR opposite of N'keal Harry, and TE. The Patriots might be prepared to move up in the draft to get a QB to replace Brady if he decides to move on. The Patriots have a lot of variables that make this pick challenging to project. They have a need at safety, and this might be too early to go safety but it might be too early unless Grant Delpit falls into their lap.
24. New Orleans LB KENNETH MURRAY, OKLAHOMA Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: CB, LB, IOL
The Saints need to improve their secondary and dependent on who is available at this point in round number one; we assume this will be the area they want to upgrade. The Saints struggled against slot WR's in 2019 and can use a corner who can play the nickel. They should also consider an upgrade at Linebacker.
25. Minnesota CB JAYLON JOHNSON, UTAH Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: IOL, CB, WR
Minnesota needs to upgrade its secondary and offensive line. Depending on who is available in this spot, they could go either way. We are going to go with the offensive line in this spot. Minnesota could not block the 49ers in the playoffs and need to upgrade both interior offensive line spots.
26. Miami f/HOU WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON LSU Instant Impact Value
*(Second projection prior to team needs review) T AUSTIN JACKSON USC Potential Upside
*(Original projection CESAR RUIZ MICHIGAN Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: QB, T, WR
Miami improved quite a bit late in the year in a lot of areas. They also have three first-round picks. The Dolphins have a lot of leverage in this draft, and if they are wise, they should draft Tua at pick five and go with two additional offensive linemen (Guard and Tackle). The thought process is that Tua will sit year one giving the Dolphins a season to develop their newly drafted offensive line. So we think they go with OL, but if Swift is available this late the Dolphins will add him to the mix with Tua, assuming Tua is available at number 5.
27. Seattle OT JOSHUA JONES, HOUSTON Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: IOL, T, WR
The Seahawks need to upgrade their offensive line to protect their most significant asset in Russell Wilson. We expect the Seahawks to snag the best available guard or tackle. The Seahawks could pick as many as three offensive linemen in the 2020 draft.
28. Baltimore WR CHASE CLAYPOOL, NOTRE DAME Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, EDGE, LB
The Ravens need a physical outside WR to line up opposite of Hollywood Brown. This is a no brainer and should be one of the more obvious choices in this draft. The Ravens have additional needs on the interior of their offensive line after the Yanda retirement. They will be looking to add a pass rusher to a defense that ranked 10th overall in Defensive HIP Rate (14%) but only accumulated 37 sacks while ranking atop the NFL in blitz rate.
29. Tennessee EDGE A.J. EPENESA, IOWA Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: EDGE, DL, IOL
The Titans had a hard time getting pressure on Mahomes in the AFC Championship game. During the regular season, the Titans ranked 14th in sacks and 15th in overall HIP Rate (High Impact Play Rate) on defense. For the Titans to get back to the AFC title in 2020, they will need to improve their pass rush. The Titans will most likely draft an edge rusher in round one.
30. Green Bay DT JUSTIN MADUBUIKE, TEXAS A&M Instant Impact
*3/17/20 (Original Projection of a WR has begun to make less sense with the depth at the position and team needs. After reevaluating top available players, the decision to move to a DT made more sense). WR LAVISKA SHENAULT, Colorado Instant Impact Value
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: WR, T, TE
The 2020 NFL Draft offers the Packers the chance to grab a high-level WR in the first round, but the depth at WR does offer the Packers a shot to address a need in their front seven. Green Bay couldn't stop Raheem Mostert in the NFC Title game, and during the regular season, the Packers ranked in the middle of the league (16th) in missed tackle rate (10.42%). Depending on the free agency market, the Packers might not be able to pass on drafting a high-level defender and waiting until the 2nd or 3rd to draft a WR. Based on need, we think they go defense, but we are going with WR in this spot to fill a need opposite of Davante Adams.
31. San Francisco CB A.J. TERRELL, CLEMSON Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: CB, S, IOL
The 49ers have to upgrade at CB in 2020. Richard Sherman is aging but still playing at a high level, but they need more stability opposite Sherman. The 49ers could use an upgrade on the interior of their offensive line (G), but at the end of the day, we believe they will draft a young corner.
32. Kansas City DT ROSS BLACKLOCK, TCU Potential Upside
3/17/20 *(Original projection Prior to Stefan Diggs to trade to Buffalo) DT JAVON KINLAW SOUTH CAROLINA Potential Upside
Team Needs Assessment Primary Needs: LB, DT, CB
The Super Bowl Champions are far from exempt as it pertains to team needs. The Chiefs have holes in their defense at all three levels, and because the NFL is a pass-first league, we believe the Chiefs will try to upgrade at corner. Depending on who is available at this point in the draft, the Chiefs could go with a DT to plug in right next to Chris Jones.
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