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2024 NFL Draft: Ranking The Quarterbacks By Player Comparisons Ceiling vs. Floor Potential

Next Level QB Analysis: Every Detail Matters

The quarterback grading process is our most rigorous and detailed analysis. The industry standard for evaluating a player typically involves watching four full games to understand how a player operates in different situations. However, we delve deeper into the QB position due to its importance in football and its complexity compared to other sports. For QBs, we analyze an entire season of film, which is time-consuming. Additionally, we examine advanced data metrics for every conceivable situation and scenario, with an emphasis on high-leverage situations like 3rd down and obvious passing situations, 4th quarter drives when trailing, and throws versus pressure and blitz.


2024 NFL Draft QB Player Comparison, Caleb Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert

The data collection is extensive, and we sometimes consult others with different viewpoints to gain additional insights. Once we have all of this, we analyze NFL Combine data for further details and gather intelligence through the player interview process and reported medical evaluations. Every detail matters when evaluating the QB position.


Player Comparisons, Painting a Picture of The Ceiling vs. The Floor.

The 2024 NFL Draft is teeming with talent at the QB position. Each top prospect comes with their strengths and weaknesses. Our analysis highlights each QB's player comparison, which considers height, weight values, and comparable play styles. This analysis aims to identify a ceiling-level player comparison, a mid-level comparison, and a floor-level player comparison.


Quarterback Prospect Rankings Based On Player Comparison Ceilings


1. Caleb Williams, USC (6′ 1″, 216lbs)

Play Style/Scheme Fit: Williams is a dynamic, dual-threat quarterback ideal for a modern spread offense. His mobility and arm strength allow him to extend plays and fit into systems similar to those used by Patrick Mahomes.


Final Analysis: Projected as an elite NFL prospect, Williams combines exceptional arm talent with off-script ability, making him a potential franchise quarterback. However, he needs to improve his trust in structured plays.


Player Comparisons:

  • Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes - shares off-script brilliance and arm strength.

  • Mid-Level: Aaron Rodgers - combines mobility with accuracy.

  • Floor: Kyler Murray - mobile but must overcome bailing early from the pocket.


2. Drake Maye, North Carolina (6′ 4″, 223lbs)

Play Style/Scheme Fit: Excelling in a spread offense, Maye is also capable in a pro-style system, showcasing a strong arm and pocket awareness.


Final Analysis: With high-end starter potential, Maye's accuracy and mobility position him as a future NFL leader, though he needs to improve his deep accuracy.


Player Comparisons:

  • Ceiling: Josh Allen - similar off-script ability and mobility.

  • Mid-Level: Justin Herbert - strong arm with the ability to make plays in and out of the pocket.

  • Floor: Daniel Jones - capable but needs to maintain structure and avoid mistakes.

3. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (6′ 2″, 219lbs)

Play Style/Scheme Fit: McCarthy fits best in a Shanahan/Payton-style offense, highlighting his mobility and short to intermediate passing strengths.


Final Analysis: Shows potential as a high-level NFL starter with notable year-over-year improvements in footwork and mechanics at Michigan, particularly while under pressure.


Player Comparisons:

  • Ceiling: Joe Burrow - showcases clutch ability and accuracy.

  • Mid-Level: Alex Smith - represents high-velocity throws and game management.

  • Floor: Chad Pennington - intelligent but needs to improve deep throws.


4. Jayden Daniels, LSU (6′ 4″, 200lbs)

Play Style/Scheme Fit: Ideal for RPO offenses, Daniels combines mobility with solid passing, suited for dynamic playmaking.


Final Analysis: Despite concerns about his frame, Daniels' electrifying play and arm strength suggest a high NFL draft pick with top-20 potential.


Player Comparisons:

  • Ceiling: Lamar Jackson - high-level athleticism and improvisation.

  • Mid-Level: Kyler Murray - shares mobility and playmaking.

  • Floor: Justin Fields - dynamic but needs to enhance consistency under pressure.

5. Michael Penix Jr., Washington (6′ 3″, 214lbs)

Play Style/Scheme Fit: A traditional pocket passer with strong arm strength, best fitting a pro-style or West Coast offense.


Final Analysis: High-end starter potential if he overcomes injury history and enhances consistency, needing the right system for success.


Player Comparisons:

  • Ceiling: Tua Tagovailoa - strong, precise throws and good pocket presence.

  • Mid-Level: Mac Jones - demonstrates good game management and accuracy.

  • Floor: Case Keenum - solid but requires system support for success.


6. Bo Nix, Oregon (6′ 2″, 216lbs)

Play Style/Scheme Fit: Nix is versatile, thriving in RPOs and schemes valuing mobility and off-script creativity.


Final Analysis: Potential to be a solid NFL starter with improvements in footwork and consistency; his mobility and arm strength are assets.


Player Comparisons:

  • Ceiling: Jalen Hurts - similar mobility and playmaking ability.

  • Mid-Level: Tim Tebow - showcases improvisational skills but needs accuracy refinement.

  • Floor: Taysom Hill - versatile but limited as a traditional quarterback.

7. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (6′ 1″, 216lbs)

Play Style/Scheme Fit: Fits creative schemes utilizing his mobility and arm strength.


Final Analysis: A developmental prospect, Rattler's journey reflects growth and potential; he needs to focus on decision-making and consistency.


Player Comparisons:

  • Ceiling: Jameis Winston - strong arm and playmaking ability.

  • Mid-Level: Jay Cutler - arm talent but must address decision-making.

  • Floor: Matt Corral - potential yet unproven at the NFL level, requiring development.


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