The dust has begun to settle from the NFL Draft and free agency leading us into fantasy ADP season. Fantasy drafts are right around the corner, and Football Scout 365 plans to tackle the season with an aggressive amount of analytical data to help you navigate the vastness of the fantasy football landscape.
Using fantasy ADP compiled from the Fantasy Football Calculator site I created a quick overview of analyzing the average player rankings by position and then identifying the round by round pick variances for each. By doing this, we can identify any changes over the next few months in how the population plans to draft. Why is this important? Because it can help you strategize based on draft position, and league type.
I chose to analyze using a 14 team PPR filter. Here are the summarized views that include the overall ADP landscape and then we take a look at the first 42 which covers the first three rounds using a 14 team PPR filter.
The purpose of the below summary below is to use ADP to gain draft position insight. For example; RB’s and WR’s are the hottest commodities, followed by TE’s and then QB’s based on the mean analysis. The median analysis follows the same pattern as the mean analysis. Based on what the round by round variance analysis tells us RB’s are being drafted at an average rate of round 6 (or 5.98) to round 9 (9.52) WR’s round 6 (6.66) to round 10 (10.21). TE’s are averaging a higher drafted rate of 6.47 than both WR’s and RB’s, and this is due to the low number of available TE’s. TE’s have a higher round variance of off 11.47 or 11th round meaning TE’s are being drafted anywhere from 6th round to 11th round on average.
The data is meant to give you an idea of positional availability and importance. For example, the data tells us that we shouldn’t draft a QB until round 7 (7.47) to 11 (11.69).
RB’s and WR’s account for the highest percentage of our First 42 analysis. The one QB in the First 42 is Pat Mahomes with a 2nd round ADP.
What stands out is obvious: RB’s and WR’s are the hottest commodities with 10 RB’s averaging 1st round ADP Compared to 4 WR’s.