According to Investopedia; Perceived value is the customer's evaluation of the quality or desirability of a product compared to its peers.
Perception is not always reality when it comes to the NFL draft. Team war rooms throughout the NFL Draft use various tactics behind the scenes that have an impact on how they make their draft selections. Some of the tactics include the use of multiple analyst/scout opinions, player interviews, film review, analytics, and private investigators who are paid to dig up whatever they can find regarding your background from interviewing your high school coaches, to friends, or non-friends from your hometown. Teams who are going to invest millions of dollars on a single player will leave no stone unturned before making a definitive decision.
So are you telling me that Mel Kiper and Todd McShay are know nothing talking heads?
Yes and no, but the odds everything discussed on your favorite sports network show, or podcast is uninformed speculation is better than good. The best analysis before and directly after the draft will come from the few in the media who have contacts within NFL organizations (maybe Kiper, Maybe McShay), or have held a position in an NFL front office at some point in their career. The most accurate analysis after the NFL Draft will happen 1 to 3 years post draft.
Today, I am going to provide a perceived value analysis by NFL Division comparing our Composite Positional Average which takes every player's composite rank and combines it into an average rank by position, to the each of the drafted players composite ranking.
Explain to me what a composite average ranking is? Where do you get the data?
Great question, I compiled individual player rankings to create one average ranking comprised from five different reputable sources such as; CBS Sports, Daniel Jeremiah, Draft Network, Pro Football Focus, and Hall of Fame Scout Gil Brandt.
In the diagram below you will see each team’s pre-draft needs analysis. Below the Team needs analysis you will find each teams draft picks in order based on their perceived value. To the far right, you will see a highlighted column (Value Comp Rk v Avg Pos Rk) diagramming the difference between the average positional rank and the individual player rank. For example; a player drafted 100 spots lower than his positional composite average indicates that this player is perceived to be a higher value pick.