Week 10 Over Analyzing What Happened, and If We Can Identify Tom Brady's Regression.

Last week was a major bomb for me as both my weekly and daily fantasy teams were significant duds. The question I was asking myself last Monday night when I held a narrow 10 point lead as I faced an opponent who had George Kittle in his lineup was, am I overthinking? Let's reflect on the lineup I had a week ago.

Last week Tom Brady and James White sat out most of the 4th Qtr of a blowout on the road at Tennessee. This was the most unlikely scenario and completely unexpected. I have an excellent argument that my fantasy team lost because of the Tom Brady sitting out during garbage time, but if I am honest with myself, this was a bad matchup against a consistent Tennessee defense that leads the league in scoring defense. So what were my options? Nobody sits Tom Brady under any circumstance. But let's take a look at a few of the Games Tom Brady has had significant success this year and the games he has struggled and saw if Tom Brady has become a streaming option instead of a must start.


The True Efficiency Rate tells us how many empty yards a team, or player averages. Offensive players who boast lower average yds per point are higher rated while those who have a higher number of yds per pt are lower rated. For defenses, this is the opposite with the higher number being, the more top rated and the lower yds pet pt being, the lower rated.



Using our Efficiency measure (True Yds Per Pt. Rating) we can see that Brady had a three week stretch against Ind, KC, and at CHI where he averaged 28.3 fantasy pts, 319 yds, 3 TD's with a True Efficiency Rate of 17.7 or 1 true point every 17.7 yds. The three weeks following Brady has averaged a pedestrian 14.2 fantasy pts, 290 yds, .33 TD's per contest with a True Efficiency Rating of 48.33 or 1 true point every 48.33 yds. So what is the correlation?


If you look back at Ind, KC and CHI all three teams have an average pass defense rank of 21 with KC dead last in passing yds allowed, Ind ranked 17th and CHI at 12th. The combined True Efficiency Rate (Pts per yds) 27.55 meaning that the three teams combined allow 1 true pt every 27.55 yds with CHI being the worst defense of the three allowing 1 true point every 22.57 yds and KC being the best giving up 1 true pt every 32.36 yds.


The True Efficiency Rate tells us how many empty yards a team, or player averages. Offensive players who boast a lower average yds per point are higher rated while those who have a higher number of yds per pt are lower rated. For defenses this is the opposite with the higher number being the higher rated and the lower yds pet pt being the lower rated.


Let's take a look at the last three games and try to see if there is any correlation about Brady's regression. The last three weeks Brady faced Buf, GB, Ten. All three defenses have a combined pass defense ranking of 8th in the NFL with the best pass defense ranking being Buffalo (3rd), followed by Ten (4th), and GB (17th). Just based on the rankings there is the correlation, but what do the True Efficiency numbers tell us?


Tom Brady has faced opponents with a True Efficiency Rate of 27.5 or 1 true point every 27.5 yds. So we can conclude that there is not a correlation about efficiency rate because the last three games Brady has faced competition that have identical Efficiency numbers as the prior three opponents.



We cannot not conclude that Brady has regressed based on True Efficiency measures, but there is no doubt he has declined over the last three weeks.

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