The Early Process
Week 13 Fantasy Projections. Last week I was able to capitalize on a somewhat obscure week (Thanksgiving) in DFS by employing the same strategy as I have used throughout the season. The procedure involves identifying top players by volume and coordinating that with the player's match-up and average Projected Efficiency. Next, I try to find the top RB match-ups (Best Available with high PPR), and 2nd and 3rd tier WR’s.
Dollars to Points Ratio (DTP)
Once I have the list sorted out, I compare to our Draft Kings DTP (Dollars to Points) Ratio Report where I can Identify the top DTP players to add to my lineup. The DTP report takes each players value in Draft Kings dollars and Compares it to their avg fantasy points scored. The DTP creates a simple measurement of total dollars per fantasy point scored. For example player A has a salary of $5k and averages ten fantasy points per game, player A's DTP would be $500 per point scored.
Player Contribution % by Match-up
The next measure we use is an average player points scored compared to the total of all players in within a single match up. For Example, player A averages ten fantasy points per game; we can add up all other players in the games average points per game and then identify player A's potential individual contribution. Player a averages 10 points per game and all players on both teams have a cumulative total of 200 points. Player (A) has a perceived contribution of 5%.
I like to target players who are playing in games with the top O/U's every week, but I don't always stick with the obvious so that I can attempt to remain as contrarian as possible. When competing in DFS cash games, or tournaments you have to find contrarian plays to differentiate yourself.
This is the base strategy that netted me my second best DFS week of 2018 and left me 5 points short of winning $2k and 10 points shy of $7k. I won $535 with a total investment of $25 for week 12 netting a 534% return on investment.
Wk 13 Quick Look
This weeks highest scoring game in terms of fantasy points based on averages is the Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars with a total of 242.05 fantasy points with an O/U of 47.
Top O/U match-up
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions O/U 55. The total fantasy points based on player averages is 199.50.