CFB 365 Fall Preview: Big Game Analysis Head Coach Dollars Per Victory and Analysis.
Coaching Staff Changes, News, Analysis and Head Coach Dollars Per Victory: What we measured: FS365 evaluated all Power Five Head Coaches 2018 estimated salaries and divided that number by their average win totals at their current school. When I began working on this report I wanted to find an easy way to identify what power five confrence head football coaches were earning their paycheck and which of the coaches are not earning their paycheck based on the number of wins they average at their current school. For example: Nick Saban's estimated 2018 compensation is a deservedly absurd $12 Million; we divided estimated compensation by his average win total per year while at Alabama (11 years). Saban's value per victory estimate is $1 million. He is worth every one of those dollars. Coaches That We are Evaluating Deeper In 2018 Throughout Our Big Game Analysis Series Top Salary 2018 Among BGA Coaches Dabo Swinney (Clemson): Swinney is the leader in overall annual salary for 2018 and is second overall to Nick Saban. There is no argument about Dabo Swinney's value to Clemson that is currently on the rise. We have dollars per win expectation of 842k in 2018. Top Value 2018 Among BGA Coaches (Dollars Per Victory Expectation) Paul Chryst (Wisconsin): Chryst's dollars per win expectation for 2018 is $291k. The argument out of the gate is that Wisconsin competes in the Big Ten West and competition is easier. My argument is that there is no argument. Wisconsin is similar to other Big Ten West Schools because Madison, WI is not exactly a high-end destination that top recruits identify as an area of the country they wish to take a visit, let alone commit. The only difference between Wisconsin and other Big Ten West division schools is stability. Wisconsin finds a way to get the guys that fit their scheme, and then they work to develop them. This is the same strategy that was used by Barry Alvarez, and since he is the current Wisconsin athletic director, he only hires coaches who buy into his ideology. Alvarez believed the only issue was finding a capable coach who understood the blueprint that had led to the most successful two decades in the history of the program: The cohesive nature of the Wisconsin program has become iconic in the Big Ten Conference. The reason for this is that they have remained stubborn and sincere to their roots of success. Paul Chryst boasts an 83% winning percentage at Wisconsin, he averages 11.33 wins per season and has appeared in three straight Big Ten title games. The issue for Chryst is that he has yet to win the Big Ten Title game. Wisconsin will likely get to the title game again in 2018, but with the hiring of Scott Frost at Nebraska, the West will become stronger in the coming years. If Chryst can capitalize in 2018, get to the Big Ten Title game and finally get over the hump to the College Football Playoff, it will be time to pay him to top 10 money in the range of David Shaw (Stanford). BGA Newcomer of the year candidate: Chip Kelly (UCLA): He is back in college football. His current value to UCLA is that he will fill the seats of the Rose Bowl in year one. The expectations at UCLA are generally low when compared to USC, but when Kelly was hired the expectations rose to new heights. Kelly won 87% of his games at Oregon in five seasons going 46-7 and 33-3 in the Pac 12 conference. UCLA Under Jim Mora from 2012-2017 went 46-30. Mora was good for 7.6 wins per season. It will take time for Kelly to reinvent the UCLA culture, but with sunshine and a beach and playing in the Rose Bowl, every home game recruiting should come easier than at Oregon. I set a total win expectation of 8 wins in year one for Chip Kelly. I expect to see this go up by one win per year until he is at his 11.5 wins per year avg that he recorded in four years at Oregon. BGA Highway Robbery Coach of the year candidate (Spoiler alert, it's not Jim Harbaugh): Ed Orgeron (LSU): Yes, Jim Harbaugh has finished no better than third place in the Big Ten East and averages 9.33 wins per year at Michigan with an expected dollars per victory $804K. Harbaugh is on pace to make more money than Urban Meyer per victory based on averages in 2018. So why are we talking about Harbaugh when Oregoron is the Highway robber? The difference is that Harbaugh is not on the hot seat. Orgeron is on shaky ground at LSU, and this could be his last shot to stick around for another year. LSU is an SEC powerhouse that has underachieved under Orgeron who averages 7.5 games per year at LSU. LSU Coaching changes: Ed Orgeron made coaching changes in the offseason that included parting ways with the up and coming offensive coordinator Matt Canada. They replaced Canada with Steve Ensminger who has been on the LSU staff since Les Miles was the Head Coach. There is not a lot of information on Ensminger that gives us an idea of his philosophy or style, but he was previously the LSU tight ends coach. The other changes Ed Orgeron Made to his staff included a new defensive line coach to replace the retired Pete Jenkins. Orgeron promoted Dennis Johnson who was previously coaching the outside linebackers. The top offseason coaching hires for Ed Orgeron's LSU Tigers was offensive line coach James Cregg who last coached with the San Diego Chargers as an assistant offensive line coach has a pretty solid resume. One notable stat I identified when evaluating NFL teams for our Pro Football 365 preseason analysis that may reflect Cregg's success is Philip Rivers had 596 dropbacks in 2017 and sacked only 18 times (1 sack surrended every 33 pass att.). LSU in 2017 gave up 1 sack per every ten passes attempted while boasting the 84th ranked pass offense in college football. So back to the Jim Harbaugh argument. Harbaugh went out and hired Jim Mcelwain to coach wide receivers. Jim Mcelwain was the head coach at Florida last year(he is a former head coach relegated to coaching receivers). Harbaugh went out and hired Ed Warriner to coach the offensive line replacing long time Harbaugh assistant Tim Drevno. Ed Warriner was the offensive line coach at Ohio State when they ran for 300 yds on Michigan in the Big House in 2015. The year prior they dominated using the run game in an incredible stretch of games from the Big Ten Title game to the National Title game against Oregon. Yes, the Buckeyes had Zeke Elliot, but the coach of the offensive line was Ed Warriner. Last but not least is the new Strength coach Ben Herbert. He was the strength coach at Wisconsin and Arkansas under Brett Bielema. More on Herbert from Mgoblue.com During his career as a strength coach, Herbert has worked with 71 NFL Draft picks, including eight first-round selections. He coached two Heisman Trophy finalists, two Outland Trophy winners, two Doak Walker Award winners, 49 first-team All-Big Ten selections, four first-team All-SEC honorees and 30 All-Americans. He also won five Big Ten Conference titles and participated in five Rose Bowl games as both a player and coach. LSU's current strength coach is Tommy Moffit who has been at LSU for 19 years in football years that is 190,000 years (Dinosaur). According to an LSU Sports article It was Moffitt’s offseason program that helped pave the way to national titles in 2003 and 2007 for the Tigers and LSU’s undefeated regular-season in 2011. Following the historic 2011 season, Moffitt was awarded the College Coach’s Choice Award by Strength Performance. Moffit is not the culprit of the poor performance on the field for LSU under Ed Orgeron. LSU was successfully winning games under Les Miles who was on the decline, but when you compare the changes, Jim Harbaugh has made to those made by Ed Orgeron in critical areas of concern you can see who is showing urgency and not allowing their ego to get in the way. Orgeron had Matt Canada coaching his offense, and the rumor in Baton Rouge is that Oregon and Canada were not on the same page and butted heads quite often creating distractions and animosity. More on why we did not choose Harbaugh as the 2018 Highway Robber of The Year. Jim Harbaugh Fired Tim Drevno, a lifelong friend, co-worker and best man at his wedding and replaced him with a top end offensive line coach (Ed Warriner). Harbaugh recognized that Michigan was not finishing games strong over the last three years and decided to move on from another lifelong crony strength coach (Kevin Tolbert) who rode in with him from San Francisco, and coached with Harbaugh at Stanford and replaced him with a younger, and proven Ben Herbert. When he needed to hire another offensive mind, he goes out and hires Jim McElwain who is an established head coach and appoints him to coach the wide receivers. Time will tell how both Ed Orgeron and Jim Harbaugh's 2018 season will define their futures. Summary of Analysis Top Salary 2018 Among BGA Coaches: Dabo Swinney (Clemson) Top Value 2018 Among BGA Coaches (Dollars Per Victory Expectation): Paul Chryst (Wisconsin) BGA Newcomer of the year candidate: Chip Kelly (UCLA) BGA Highway Robbery Coach of the year candidate (Spoiler alert, it's not Jim Harbaugh): Ed Orgeron (LSU)