Estimated Dollars Per Victory 2018: Power Five Head Coaches Will Earn 650k Per Victory.
What we measured: FS365 evaluated all Power Five Head Coaches 2018 estimated salaries and divided that number by their average win totals at their current school. For example: Nick Saban's estimated 2018 compensation is an absurd $12 Million; we divided estimated compensation by his average win total per year while at Alabama (11 years). Saban's value per victory estimate is $1 million. Measuring Value: Nick Saban is the highest paid coach in college football and among the top three highest-paid coach in American sports. Saban has won six National Titles in Career and has won 87% of his games. Nick Saban's value to Alabama goes beyond athletics. In a 2016 USA today report titled "is Nick Saban underpaid"? The USA Today reporters asked top ranking Alabama school officals their thoughts on Nick Saban's salary. The answer; AS THE COACH'S COMPENSATION CONTINUES TO RISE, SO TOO DOES THE UNIVERSITY'S ENROLLMENT AND STANDING. After evaluating Nick Saban is Urban Meyer undervalued? Urban Meyer has been compensated $1 million less annually at Ohio State than Jim Harbaugh's ($8 Million) per year at Michigan, yet Meyer wins nearly three games more than Harbaugh per year on average. Urban Meyer has won a National Title at Ohio State and two while at Florida. Urban Meyer is the best value of the top five highest-paid coaches (dollars per Victory) analysis at $575,342 per win. Urban Meyer will soon jump into the Saban stratosphere in the next few years. (Update: Urban Meyer did receive a pay increase that now matches, or suprasses Jim Harbaugh's annual earnings. Depending on the specifics of the life insurance policy Jim Harbaugh used to increase his compensation in 2016-17 that made him the highest paid coach in college football, his pay should remain at or just below Urban Meyer in 2018. Is Jimbo Fisher overvalued? Jimbo Fisher is estimated to make more than Urban Meyer at Texas A&M in 2018 following a 6-6 record last season at Florida State. Fisher is walking into an expectations buzz saw at Texas A&M. Fisher has a career 9.22 wins per season record, winning 78% of his games. If Texas A&M expects instant success, they may need to be slightly patient in 2018. Fisher is a great recruiter and will need a few years to rebuild A&M to fit his style. Texas A&M is not devoid of talent in 2018, but even at nine wins (Fisher's Career average), A&M will pay $813,253 per victory. If A&M goes 6-6 in 2018 like Florida State in 2017 under Fisher, A&M will have invested $1,225,000 per win in 2018. Average Measures Across Power Five (All Coaches Combined). Note: Ironically, Urban Meyer also ranks below the average dollar per victory total of Power Five Head coaches. SEC 2018 estimated compensation ($69,100,000) for head coaches leads all Power Five Confrences. The SEC averages 7.14 wins per coach paying $764,984 per victory. The SEC has also replaced five head coaches which accounts for 42% of all Power Five new hire Head Coaches. The SEC ranks third in avg wins per coach behind the Big Ten (7.43) and the ACC (7.23). The SEC avg wins per coach will likely increase in 2018 once we get data from the New Head Coaches. We currently estimate all new coaches based on their career per season win avg. The SEC and Pac 12 account 10 of the 12 new head coaching hires. We expect to see the SEC, and Pac 12 wins avg to rise in 2018. Big 12 lacking big value: Even though the SEC is paying out 69 million in compensation to its head coaches in 2018, we estimate the Big 12 to pay near $200k more per win in 2018. The Estimated $953,712 per victory places the Big 12 highest on the Dollars Per Victory list. The teams that are driving the number up are Baylor, who finished 1-11 a year ago under Matt Rhule, and Kansas's David Beatty also 1-11 in 2018. If Kansas wins three games, this season and Baylor can get to a respectable six wins the Dynamic will change. Other notable teams that need to see improvements are the middling Texas Longhorns who both went 7-6 in 2018. Non-conference wins for the Big 12 as a whole will drive sown their Dollar per Victory value in 2018. If the Big 12 improves adding +10 wins to their bottom line in 2018, it lowers their Dollars per Victory $521,000. Power Five New Hire Head Coaches 2018. The top new Hire on the list based on estimated Dollars per Victory in 2018 is Joe Moorehead who replaces Dan Mullen at Mississippi State. Moorehead will have middling expectations in the SEC, but Moorehead also walks into a program with a similar offensive system to that of Dan Mullen. Moorehead should have a healthy Nick Fitzgerald back at QB in 2018 and they return 90% of their starters from 2017. The coach to watch in 2018 is Dan Mullen at Florida in year one. Mullen is in familiar territory as he was once the offensive coordinator at Florida under Urban Meyer and was a key part of two National Titles as the Florida OC in 2006 and 2008. Dan Mulllen did a great job of at Mississippi State averaging 6.9 wins per year. The expectations at Florida is that he needs to win right away and 6 or 7 wins per year is not the expectation. Florida Fired Jim McElwain who led Florida to two SEC title games losing both to Alabama in 2015 and 2016. McElwain failed to get his offense going in three seasons and this is why the change had to be made. Dan Mullen brings back the offense Florida fans enjoyed under Urban Meyer, the question in year one is how fast can Mullen install his system while showing flashes of the Tebow era spread attack that won National Titles at Florida the last time Mullen was at the offensive controls. The expectation in year one should be around 9 wins. The top new overall new Head Coach on the list is Chip Kelly retruning to College Football. UCLA replaces Jim Mora for Chip Kelly who returns from what many says was an unsuccessful attempt to install his spread attack at the NFL level. Chip Kelly was a top 5 College Football Coach before he left for the NFL and his offensive attack while at Oregon was program builder for that school. Kelly is worth every penny he is being paid and in the next few years should be worth even more if he can get UCLA to the same level he had Oregon rolling at before leaving for the NFL. Kelly will need a little time to get his guys in place and UCLA is the perfect school for a coach wh needs a few years to build. THe QB position in 2018 will be the question mark. Josh Rosen is out and UCLA does have former Michigan QB Wilton Speight as a Grad transfer on the team. Speight is not the spread QB that Chip Kelly used to great success when at Oregon, but he could be serviceable enough in year one. The Other option is Devin Modster who has experience and is a former 4 star recruit. He is also a prostyle QB with decent athleticism that could translate to the system Chip Kelly liked to run at Oregon. Time will tell, but the expectations in year one are low. We estimate Kelly to win 9.2 games in year one based on his previous college coaching wins per season average, but the real expectation should be around 6 wins in 2018 and bowl eligibility. Click here to be directed to the Custom Analytics page where you can access the full report.