2026 NFL Draft Scouting Notebook: Week 3 QB and WR Stock Movement and One to Watch, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

Three weeks in, the 2026 NFL Draft picture is shifting fast. At quarterback, Garrett Nussmeier holds firm at QB1 while Dante Moore and Carson Beck climb into Round 1 talk. Meanwhile, Arch Manning and Cade Klubnik are trending down. At wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson and Carnell Tate headline the early WR1 race as new challengers emerge.

Scouting Notebook: Week 3 NFL Draft Players on the Rise

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

The former five-star is making good on his promise in Eugene. After sitting behind Dillon Gabriel in 2024, Moore has settled into Will Stein’s system with confidence, posting 657 yards, 7 TDs, and just 1 INT through Oregon’s 3-0 start. His poise and mechanics have impressed NFL evaluators — Mel Kiper Jr. has already floated the idea of Moore rising into the Round 1 conversation if he maintains consistency. The real litmus test looms in late September at Penn State, but Moore is firmly on the Heisman radar (+1000 odds) and has put himself in the early mix of 2026 QB1 chatter.

Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee

At 6’5”, 200, Brazzell combines rare length with fluidity as a route runner. After transferring from Tulane and posting modest numbers in 2024, he’s exploded in 2025. His Week 3 performance — 6 catches, 177 yards, and 3 TDs against Georgia — was his breakout moment, showcasing high-point ability, body control, and vertical speed. Todd McShay has already suggested Brazzell could be in the WR1 mix for the 2026 NFL Draft. If he continues to dominate SEC corners, his stock could mirror that of recent risers like Brian Thomas Jr.

Carson Beck, QB, Miami

The Georgia transfer is reviving his stock after a turbulent 2024. Through three games, Beck has thrown for 812 yards and 7 TDs while completing nearly 80% of his passes. In Miami’s win over USF, he flashed newfound mobility (28 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD) to complement his timing-based passing game. Scouts remain split — some see him as a high-floor Day 2 passer with NFL starter traits, while others remain skeptical of his ceiling. Either way, Beck’s rebound is one of the early storylines of the 2026 QB class.

Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama

Bernard has quietly emerged as Alabama’s most reliable weapon. With 15 receptions, 275 yards, and 3 scores in three games, he’s drawn first-round buzz. Matt Miller noted Bernard’s polish as a route runner and physicality at 6’1”, 204, comparing his game to Emeka Egbuka. With the WR1 race wide open, Bernard has positioned himself alongside Jordyn Tyson and Brazzell in the early tier of 2026 wideouts.

Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

At 6’4”, 243, Reese is already one of the most versatile linebackers in college football. Against Texas, he lined up everywhere — off-ball, edge, even in the B-gap — and racked up 9 tackles, a sack, and 4 QB hurries. His blend of power and athleticism overwhelmed the Longhorns’ offensive line. NFL scouts are beginning to talk about Reese as a potential Round 1 prospect if he sustains this level of play through Big Ten competition.

2026 NFL Draft Stock Watch: Quarterbacks on the Rise, Others Sliding After Week 3

The first three weeks of the 2025 college football season have already reshaped the 2026 NFL Draft landscape. The much-hyped quarterback class is beginning to separate into tiers — Garrett Nussmeier has solidified his place at the top, while Carson Beck and Dante Moore are pushing into Round 1 contention. At the same time, former headliners like Arch Manning and Cade Klubnik are trending in the wrong direction. With conference play about to begin, the next month will be crucial in determining who emerges as true QB2 behind Nussmeier.

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU – QB1 until proven otherwise

Through three weeks, Nussmeier has been steady if not spectacular, completing 65.1% of his passes for 689 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. He led LSU to wins over Clemson, Louisiana Tech, and Florida, showing poise and toughness against quality competition. While his efficiency (6.5 YPA) still leaves room for growth, scouts love his command of the Tigers’ offense and ability to make timely throws under pressure. Until another QB proves otherwise, Nussmeier remains the safest projection at QB1 in the 2026 class.

• Carson Beck, Miami – Rebuilding his stock after Georgia, Beck has looked sharp through three games, completing 79.3% of his passes for 812 yards, 7 TDs, and 2 INTs. His efficiency and command of Miami’s offense have scouts reconsidering him as a back-half Round 1 prospect. If he carries the Hurricanes to an ACC title and into the Playoff, he could elevate even higher.

• Drew Allar, Penn State – The verdict is still out on Allar, who chose to return to Happy Valley instead of declaring last spring. Through three games, he’s thrown for 626 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT on 64.8% completions. The size and arm talent are there, but scouts want to see him become more consistent in his decision-making and progression work. If he shows that growth in Big Ten play, Allar has Day 1 pick upside.

• Dante Moore, Oregon – Already generating Heisman buzz, Moore has started hot, completing 78.1% of his passes for 657 yards, 7 TDs, and 1 INT. His efficiency has been outstanding, but evaluators still want to see him perform against elite defenses. The looming Penn State whiteout will be his biggest test yet.

• Fernando Mendoza, Indiana – The tools are undeniable, and the numbers are backing it up. Mendoza has opened 2025 completing 72.4% of his passes for 708 yards, 9 TDs, and 0 INTs through three games. He’s yet to be tested against Big Ten defenses, but the early returns hint at a player who could force his way into the QB2 conversation.

• Arch Manning, Texas – Manning continues to ride a rollercoaster. Through three games, he’s at 55.3% completions, 579 yards, 6 TDs, and 3 INTs. His mechanics remain inconsistent, and his accuracy on routine throws has slipped. Scouts are beginning to project him more toward the 2027 class than 2026, unless major strides are made.

• Cade Klubnik, Clemson – Once thought of as a possible first-rounder, Klubnik’s stock has plummeted. He’s completed 59.1% of his passes for 633 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 INTs. Average tools, coupled with inconsistency, have most evaluators now slotting him firmly in Day 3 territory.

• LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina – Sellers remains raw, but the talent is evident. In three games, he’s completed 64.4% of his throws for 431 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. His dual-threat ability pops, but he needs more time to refine his passing game. The best projection is for Sellers to return and enter as part of the 2027 class.

Wide Receivers: WR1 Race Taking Shape

Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State – WR1 frontrunner

Tyson has been the most consistent performer through three weeks, catching 24 passes for 314 yards and 4 TDs (13.1 YPC). He’s polished as a route runner, a vertical separator, and reliable after the catch. Right now, he looks like a top-15 pick and the WR1 favorite heading into Pac-12 play.

Carnell Tate, Ohio State – Rising toward Round 1 lock

Tate has the size (6’3”, 195) and ball skills to profile as the next great Buckeye receiver. Through three games, he’s posted 12 receptions for 219 yards and 3 TDs (18.3 YPC). Tate looks like a safe top-20 projection with upside to push Tyson if he sustains production against Big Ten defenses.

Makai Lemon, USC – Flashing Round 1 ability

With 16 catches for 311 yards and 2 TDs (19.4 YPC), Lemon has shown both vertical juice (74-yard score vs Georgia Southern) and versatility as USC’s WR1. At 5’11”, 195, he isn’t as big as Tyson or Tate, but his explosiveness and playmaking keep him firmly in the Day 1 conversation.

Denzel Boston, Washington – Still in the mix

At 6’4”, 209, Boston brings size and body control. He’s started slower statistically (10 catches, 142 yards, 1 TD) but flashed against Colorado State with 92 yards and a score. If his production ramps up in Big Ten play, his tools and frame give him every chance to stay in the Round 1 mix.

Chris Brazzell II, Tennessee – New name on the rise

Brazzell’s breakout came in Week 3 with a 6-catch, 177-yard, 3-TD game vs Georgia, giving him 20 receptions, 364 yards, and 5 TDs through three games. At 6’5”, 200, with fluid movement and vertical speed, he’s quickly gone from SEC sleeper to legitimate WR1 challenger.

Eric Singleton Jr., Auburn – Climbing candidate

Singleton hasn’t exploded statistically yet, but his burst and ability to separate make him a player scouts believe could climb quickly once SEC play heats up. He’s an upside name to track as the season progresses.

Antonio Williams, Clemson – Evaluators waiting

Williams entered the season as a potential WR1 candidate but suffered a hamstring injury in Week 1 vs LSU. He’s missed time and remains sidelined, which has stalled his momentum. If healthy, his route polish and YAC ability can still push him into the first-round mix, but durability is becoming a key question.

One to Watch: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, Cal (2028 eligible)

Cal’s true freshman starter has been one of the quiet breakout stories of the early season. Sagapolutele became the first true freshman to start a season opener for the Bears since Jared Goff in 2013 — and unlike Goff, he opened his career with wins in his first two games.

Through his first three starts, the Hawaii native has flashed polish well beyond his years. He’s completed 66–70% of his passes with multiple 200+ yard outings, 4 total TDs, and just 1 INT, while also adding mobility as a runner. His calm presence and ability to layer the football have stood out to evaluators.

At 6’3”, with one of the strongest arms in the 2025 recruiting cycle, Sagapolutele was a top-70 overall recruit and a top-10 QB in the 247 Composite. His performance so far is validating that pedigree.

Scouting notes highlight his ability to:

• Deliver with touch and velocity

• Throw a high-level deep ball

• Work timing concepts with a clean release

• Stay composed in structure for a true freshman

  
  

There’s plenty of room for growth — particularly in extending plays, improving pocket mobility, and developing as a true dual-threat. But given his tools and early production, he looks like a quarterback who could develop into a future first-round prospect by 2028 if his trajectory continues.