Measuring The Impact Of High Impact Play Rate Differential In The NFL


WHAT IS HIGH IMPACT PLAY RATE (HIP RATE)?

High Impact Play Rate accounts for big in-game moments such as sacks, turnovers, TFL's, and explosive plays. Our High Impact Play Rate analysis works as a diagnostic tool created to help identify the critical areas of focus when performing an every play film review.


MEASURING THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH IMPACT PLAY (HIP RATE)

Within every football game, there are critical moments that factor into whether a team wins' or loses the game. Coaches and analysts point to these factors during their post-game analysis. High Impact Plays provide momentum, so we created a way to measure the rate of High Impact Play (HIP Rate) Rate occurrence.


APPLYING HIGH IMPACT PLAY RATE (HIP RATE)

Our High Impact Play Rate analysis works as a diagnostic tool created to help identify the critical areas of focus when performing an every play film review. HIP Rate is the starting point of every analysis that we perform. 


THE VALUE OF HIGH IMPACT PLAYS

We are actively studying the value of High Impact plays and their effect on team winning percentages. The study will be in its third year of research, where it seeks to identify the correlation between each variable. Our study has concluded that even when one or two variables may appear related within the door remains open for the potential of a second or third variable. Every play analysis allows us to surgically identify the potential second or third factor within a momentum-changing scenario.


HIGH IMPACT PLAY RATE DIFFERENTIAL STUDY

Our current High Impact Play Rate study uses the differential of each metric against itself; for example, sacks for vs. sacks allowed. We then take the differential between the two variables and connect it to the average team win percentage. For example, Team A has 22 total sacks for vs. 19 sacks allowed on the year (+3). We then examine the winning percentage of team A (62%). We can conclude that team A's (+3) sack differential could be directly impacting their 62% win rate.


THE CORE FIVE MEASURABLES

Third Down Stop Differential

Explosive Play Differential

Sack Differential

Interception Differential

Fumble Differential


We examined the NFL High Impact Play Rate differential averages for the top third, middle third, and bottom third of the league as a whole in each of the core five categories. The objective is to identify the correlation between each differential and its connection between team win percentages among teams in the top third, middle third, and bottom third of the NFL. As discussed earlier, the High Impact Play Rate differential does show a correlation between winning and losing football games. We have concluded that High Impact Play Rate works well as a diagnostic analysis that often requires a more in-depth evaluation of the facts.


USING EVERY PLAY ANALYSIS TO IDENTIFY 2ND AND 3RD VARIABLES HIDDEN WITHIN THE FILM

High Impact Play Rate is the first part of a three-prong analysis system that Football Scout 365 can perform when evaluating team performance. The High Impact Play Rate, when paired with our more in-depth every play situational analysis, allows us to match the High Impact Play Rate variables with additional variables found deep within our every play situational analysis.


WHAT IS EVERY PLAY SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS?

We created a customizable (to fit your needs) every play evaluation process made for coaches that analyzes every situation, from down & distance, field position, offensive and defensive personnel groupings, play type, and play area. The custom analysis process can use 70 different metrics, more or less, based on your needs.


THE CORE FIVE VARIABLES IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE BASES ON RATE OF OCCURRENCE

Third-Down Stop Differential

Highest Rate Of Occurrence (12.24%)

Third down stops rank at the top of the five core High Impact Play Rate categories. Offenses want to sustain drives just as much as defenses wish to get off of the field. The data concluded that 3rd down stops carry the highest weight of the top five evaluated High Impact Play measures. Teams in the top third of 3rd down differential, meaning that their offense sustained drives at a high rate, and their defense got off of the field at a high rate averaged 9.93 wins per season since 2018 (62%).


Explosive Play Differential

Rate Of Occurrence (6.26%)

The second-highest rate of occurrence among the five measures is explosive play differential. Teams in the top third of explosive play differential win an average of 9.35 games (58.46%).




Sack Differential

Rate Of Occurrence (3.96%

The third-highest rate of occurrence among the five measures is sack differential. Teams in the top third of sack differential win an average of 10.15 games (63.46%).





INT Differential

Rate Of Occurrence (1.28%)

The fourth-highest rate of occurrence among the five measures is INT differential. Teams in the top third of INT differential win an average of 10.55 games (65.96%).





Fumble Differential

Rate Of Occurrence (0.74%)

The fifth-highest rate of occurrences among the five measures is fumble differential. Teams in the top third of fumble differential win an average of 10.55 games (65.96%).





High Impact Play Rate

After we combine all five of the above variables, we can calculate the total High Impact Play Rate. Teams in the top third of the High Impact Play Rate analysis win 10.45 games per year (65.33%). All four teams who participated in the last two Super Bowls ranked in the top third of the High Impact Play Rate. 70% of teams in the top third since 2018 made the playoffs, 60% won their division, 20% made it to the Super Bowl, and 10% have won the Super Bowl.

33.3% of NFL teams made the playoffs if ranked in the middle third of the High Impact Play Rate measure, while 16.7% have won their division. Teams who rank in the bottom third do not make the playoffs or win their division since 2018.




The Ongoing Study

The 2020 NFL season will provide another year of data for us to evaluate. During the 2020 season, we will use the High Impact Play Rate analysis to examine in-season NFL team performance. Each week we will provide a report on the High Impact Play Rate team of the week. We plan to continuously study High Impact Play Rate, making changes when needed, and adding additional data points if we conclude the need for more data. As of August 2020, our study has found that the High Impact Play Rate differential directly correlates with team winning percentage and scoring differential.


Applying High Impact Play Rate At Different Levels Of Football

High Impact Play Rate provides coaches and team analysts with one level of analysis. It is not the defining factor we use to determine performance. Analytics play a small role but can serve as a guide when trying to quickly pinpoint areas of success, or concern before performing an every play film review with your football team.


Football Scout 365 aspires to become a provider of customizable scouting and analytics tools and processes built to fit all levels of football.


Our Three-Prong Approach

Every analysis begins with the High Impact Play Rate analysis that serves as a diagnostic overview. Once Football Scout 365 Analysts pinpoint the critical area of focus using HIP Rate analysis, we dive deeper to perform every play situational analysis using 70+ different metrics to examine every player and every play. Once the situational every play analysis is complete, we bring the data to life by creating a visual presentation for coaches to use during film review with their team.

For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube.

Football Scout 365 on Instagram

Football Scout 365 on Twitter

Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn

Football Scout 365 on YouTube



FOOTBALL SCOUT 365 ON SOCIAL 
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn Social Icon

© 2020 footballscout365.com All rights reserved.

Westerville, Ohio, United States

  • Instagram
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn