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2024 NFL Draft: Measuring Quarterback Clutch Ability Using Points Earned Per Play on 3rd and 4th Down: J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye Which of the top 2024 NFL Draft prospects is the most clutch in key moments? Among the many data points we measure to evaluate the quarterback position is their ability to operate in high-leverage situations. The top quarterbacks at any level of football, but most importantly in college football and the NFL, are those who can minimize mistakes, manage the game as needed, and activate their game-changing ability in key moments. The definition of a key moment can vary, and we can get extremely granular in the analysis if needed. However, for this circumstance, I chose 3rd down and obvious passing situations as one of the better ways to measure a quarterback's clutch ability. The rankings below use a measure referred to as the expected points model or the points earned model. What is the Points Earned Model? The Points Earned model is an analytical framework used to quantify a player's contribution to their team's scoring output, taking into account the context and impact of each play. It's derived from the Expected Points Added (EPA) concept, which measures how each play affects the team's scoring chances. The Points Earned model goes beyond traditional statistics by considering the value of each play within its game context, offering a nuanced view of a player's performance and impact. It's particularly insightful for quarterbacks, as it captures their contribution to the team's scoring potential, factoring in the plays that lead directly to points and those that significantly improve the team's scoring chances. How Does This Apply To The Analysis Below? Today, we compare the top 2024 NFL Draft Quarterback prospects from this past 2023 college football season on third down and obvious passing situations of 5 yards or more. These throws by the QBs must be thrown past the sticks, eliminating some of the after-the-catch ability of their wide receivers from the equation. The Key metrics we are going to use in this analysis include the following *(Combined 3rd/4th down throws past the sticks of 5 yards or more to go) Points Added Per Play Ranking (PAA Per Play Rank) *SIS Definition: Points Above Average per pass play. This metric measures a quarterback's effectiveness by comparing the points earned on each pass play to the league average. A higher value indicates a quarterback contributes more points than the average per play, highlighting their efficiency and effectiveness in critical situations. Positive Play% EPA Boom% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in an exceptionally successful play, defined by an EPA of at least +1. This indicates the quarterback's capability to create big, game-changing plays. A higher percentage represents a higher capability for making impactful plays. EPA Bust% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in a significant negative Expected Points Added (EPA), specifically less than -1. This metric identifies plays significantly decreasing a team's scoring opportunity or overall field position. A lower ranking (indicating fewer bust plays) is desirable, showing the quarterback's ability to avoid costly mistakes. The top QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft Ranked BY 2023 PAA Per Play *(Combined 3rd/4th down throws past the sticks of 5 yards or more to go) 1.) J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) PAA Per Play Rank: 1st nationally (1.06 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: McCarthy's efficiency is unparalleled with a 1.06 Points Above Average (PAA) per play, complemented by a leading Boom% rank (71.4%, 1st) and a remarkably low Bust% rank (20.0%, 4th), highlighting his precision and capacity for high-impact plays. This balance between high success in Boom% and minimizing failures in Bust% underscores his precision under pressure. Player Comparison Correlation: The comparison to Joe Burrow spotlights McCarthy’s ability to elevate his game under pressure, suggesting potential growth areas in play processing and decision-making to reach Burrow's level of NFL success. 2). Bo Nix (Oregon) PAA Per Play Rank: 3rd nationally (0.96 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Nix's play is characterized by a solid 0.96 Points Above Average (PAA) per play, a high Boom% rank (71.40%, 2nd), and a lower Bust% rank (19.0%, 3rd), demonstrating his capability to generate significant plays while efficiently avoiding negative outcomes. This proficiency in maximizing positive plays and mitigating risks highlights his suitability for dynamic offenses that leverage quarterback mobility and improvisational skills. Player Comparison Correlation: The parallel with Jalen Hurts accentuates Nix's potential. His precision and decision-making could elevate his performance, fostering a trajectory of development akin to Hurts. 3). Caleb Williams (USC) PAA Per Play Rank: 5th nationally (0.87 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Williams showcases a notable 0.87 Points Above Average (PAA) per play, with a Boom% rank (59.0%, 13th) that contrasts with a higher Bust% rank (25.6%, 10th). This highlights his dynamic dual-threat abilities and indicates room for improvement in areas such as trusting his pocket and taking what the defense gives him rather than always chasing explosive plays. Player Comparison Correlation: Williams' comparison to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers suggests his fit in schemes that prize mobility and playmaking, emphasizing that refining structured play could unlock his elite potential. 4). Jayden Daniels (LSU) PAA Per Play Rank: 23rd nationally (0.60 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Daniels' balance is evident with a 0.59 Points Above Average (PAA) per play. His moderate Boom% rank (52.9%, 27th) and Bust% rank (35.3%, 43rd) in key 3rd down and obvious passing situations are areas for improvement. This suggests that refining his decision-making could lead to more consistent high-impact plays. Player Comparison Correlation: Comparing Daniels to Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray underscores his potential in an offense that allows for his creative playmaking ability to flourish. He will need to improve as a passer in key 3rd down and obvious passing moments; he is a dynamic runner who can beat you in two ways, but leveraging his running ability to create more opportunities as a passer will elevate his game at the NFL level. 5). Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) PAA Per Play Rank: 24th nationally (0.59 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Rattler’s capability is marked by a 0.59 PAA per play, alongside a Boom% rank (46.3%, 66th) that is notably higher than his Bust% rank (41.5%, 85th), indicating a strong arm and creativity but also a need for better decision-making and consistency. This balance between creating impactful plays and the relatively higher occurrence of negative plays points to areas for growth in playmaking consistency. Player Comparison Correlation: Rattler's parallels with Jameis Winston and Jay Cutler suggest a trajectory towards becoming a resilient quarterback, focusing on improving decision-making to mitigate bust plays and enhance overall performance. 6). Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) PAA Per Play Rank: 68th nationally (0.345 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Penix demonstrates a classic pocket passer's profile with a blend of arm strength and accuracy, reflected in his Points Above Average (PAA) per play (0.345). Despite a moderate Boom% (48.0%, ranked 56th) and Bust% (34.0%, ranked 35th), Penix's tape shows a quarterback who can execute precise throws from the short to deep areas of the field. Ideal for a pro-style or West Coast offense, Penix's skill set aligns with a quarterback capable of managing the game effectively and making strong, accurate passes. Player Comparison Correlation: Penix's comparisons to Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones resonate with the idea that he could thrive in the right system by leveraging his quick decision-making and accuracy. These comparisons suggest Penix possesses the foundational skills to develop into a reliable starting quarterback, emphasizing the importance of a supportive team structure and an offensive scheme that aligns with his strengths. 7). Drake Maye (North Carolina) PAA Per Play Rank: 69th nationally (0.34 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Despite a lower Points Above Average (PAA) per play (0.34), Drake Maye's role in the Tar Heel offense was evident from his tape. However, in key 3rd down and obvious pass situations, his high Boom% (34.9%, ranked 124th) and high Bust% (41.9%, ranked 90th) indicate raw talent in improvisation but also highlight a necessity for improvement as a passer in high-leverage situations. His capability for making plays outside the structure is notable, but he needs to develop a greater trust in his pocket. His skill set is desirable in today's NFL, but he will need time to develop. Player Comparison Correlation: Maye's potential comparisons to Justin Herbert and Josh Allen highlight his ability to thrive in a system that values quarterbacks who can extend plays and make decisive throws. His comparisons make sense, as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert needed to improve consistency and decision-making when they entered the NFL. Advanced-Data Glossary PAA Per Play Definition: Points Above Average per pass play. This metric measures a quarterback's effectiveness by comparing the points earned on each pass play to the league average. A higher value indicates a quarterback contributes more points than the average per play, highlighting their efficiency and effectiveness in critical situations. Positive Play% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in a positive Expected Points Added (EPA). It reflects the quarterback's ability to consistently make plays that advance the team's position or score, with a higher percentage indicating more successful plays than total attempts. EPA Bust% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in a significant negative Expected Points Added (EPA), specifically less than -1. This metric identifies plays significantly decreasing a team's scoring opportunity or overall field position. A lower ranking (indicating fewer bust plays) is desirable, showing the quarterback's ability to avoid costly mistakes. Boom% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in an exceptionally successful play, defined by an EPA of at least +1. This indicates the quarterback's capability to create big, game-changing plays. A higher percentage represents a higher capability for making impactful plays. Total Points Earned in 2023 Definition: The total points a quarterback is responsible for through passing in high-leverage situations during the season. It aggregates the value of all positive plays made by the quarterback. A higher total indicates a greater contribution to the team's scoring efforts in critical situations. Total Pass Attempts in this situation Definition: The number of pass attempts made by the quarterback in high-leverage situations (3rd down and 5+ yards). This provides context for the sample size of the data, with more attempts offering a broader basis for evaluating the quarterback's performance.

RJ Harvey Dynasty Rookie Profile – Fantasy Football 2025 RJ Harvey Dynasty Rookie Profile RB – Denver Broncos | Drafted: Round 2, Pick 60 | College: UCF RJ Harvey lands in Denver as a dual-threat running back tailor-made for Sean Payton’s pass-heavy system. With elite elusiveness, burst, and a wide-open opportunity share, Harvey projects as one of the biggest rookie winners in fantasy football. His third-down upside and home-run ability could unlock RB2 value as early as Year 1. College Career Recap RJ Harvey’s journey began at Virginia before transferring to UCF, where he blossomed into one of the most productive backs in the country. After recovering from a 2021 injury, he exploded for over 1,400 rushing yards in both 2023 and 2024. He capped off his career with 1,577 yards and 22 rushing TDs as a senior while adding value as a receiver (20 receptions, 267 yards, 3 TDs). His tape shows consistent growth in vision, footwork, and contact balance. Despite being just 5'8", Harvey was a workhorse back with the ability to wear down defenses and create chunk plays, especially in gap or inside-zone schemes. Over the past two seasons, he finished top-20 in breakaway percentage and elusive rating, per PFF. NFL Scouting Report Height: 5’8” | Weight: 205 lbs | 40-Yard Dash: 4.40 | Vertical Jump: 38” | Broad Jump: 10’7” | 20-Yd Shuttle: 4.34 RJ Harvey is a compact, twitchy back who thrives in space and can win at the second level with burst and lateral agility. His ability to make defenders miss and finish runs through contact is impressive given his size. He’s a natural receiver with soft hands, though ball security and pass protection remain concerns. Scheme Fit & Projected Role with Broncos Sean Payton's history of maximizing receiving backs (Alvin Kamara, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush) bodes well for Harvey. Denver’s running back room—led by Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin—lacks a defined lead back, and with Javonte Williams gone, Harvey could carve out immediate third-down and change-of-pace duties. He’s the most versatile back in the room and may eventually seize early-down reps if Estime underwhelms. In an offense that targeted RBs more than any team the last two seasons, Harvey’s path to RB2 fantasy value is clear. Rookie Outlook (2025) Floor : RB3 with FLEX value in PPR formats Ceiling : RB2 with weekly spike weeks if he secures receiving and early-down work Early Projection : 140–160 carries, 40+ receptions, 1,100 total yards, 6–8 TDs Expected PPG (0.5 PPR) : 7.5-15 Long-Term Dynasty Value RJ Harvey offers one of the highest ceilings among Day 2 RBs in the 2025 class. In dynasty formats, he’s a strong second-round target in rookie drafts and a potential Year 1 breakout if Denver commits to him. His profile fits modern NFL backfields: explosive, efficient, and dynamic in the passing game. If he holds up physically, Harvey could be a top-20 fantasy RB by the end of his rookie contract.

NFL Week Three: High Impact Game of The Week Ravens vs Chiefs Reviewed Featured Analysis High Impact Play Rate And Every Play Analysis Our High Impact Game of The Week will highlight a different team each week during the NFL season by taking a more in-depth look at the matchup using our High Impact Play Rate analysis combined with our every play analysis. What is High Impact Play Rate? High Impact Play Rate accounts for big in-game moments such as sacks, turnovers, TFL's, and explosive plays. Our High Impact Play Rate analysis works as a diagnostic tool created to help identify the critical areas of focus when performing an every play film review. What is an Every Play Analysis? We created a customizable (to fit your needs) every play evaluation process made for coaches that analyzes every situation, from down & distance, field position, offensive and defensive personnel groupings, play type, and play area. The custom analysis process can use 70 different metrics, more or less, based on your needs. Ravens vs. Chiefs Game Report and Final Review. Our High Impact Play game of the week featured the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. Damned if you do, damned if you don't The story of the night, the Ravens blitzed, and Mahomes made them pay. Mahomes completed 17-21 passes for 219 yards and three TD's when the Ravens brought five or more pass rushers. The most impressive throw against the blitz came on a 49 yard TD pass off his back foot with a man in his face to Mecole Hardman on a third down and 14. The Chief's offense looks unstoppable The Chiefs offense is a juggernaut with the right blend of players and coaches. The creativity was on full display early in the game when Patrick Mahomes threw an awkward-looking shovel pass to his FB Anthony Sherman, who would score from five yards out on 3rd down. The creativity would continue in critical moments throughout the night, allowing the Chiefs to convert on third downs multiple times. When the Ravens defense appeared poised to get off of the field, the Chiefs offense would convert. On third down, the Chiefs converted 10 for 13 vs. the Ravens 3 for 9. Third down in a big game like this once again proves to be the key to winning or losing. Chiefs dominate in the red zone In the red zone, the Chiefs were a perfect 3 of 3, vs. The Ravens 1 of 4. The Raven's inability to convert on third down and in the red zone would be their ultimate undoing. Mahomes can take over a game (is he the Michael Jordan of Football)? Mahomes finished the night with 385 yards and five total TD's (4 Passing, one rushing). Lamar Jackson Struggled Lamar Jackson struggled to throw the football. The game started well for Lamar when he ripped off an early zone-read run for 30 yards on the opening drive. The Ravens would get into the red zone, and the offense would sputter, leading to a field goal attempt. Jackson's struggles were aided throughout the night by his WR's and TE's, who dropped five passes. Two of the drops by my count would have been TD's, including the most obvious to Mark Andrews when the Ravens were fighting their way back into the game midway through the third QTR. Lamar Could not get into a rhythm Lamar Jackson could not get into a good rhythm throwing the football. He did manage to rush for 83 yards, but he did not surpass 100 yards passing. The Chiefs, as described by Jackson last night, did a lot of the same stuff on defense that the Titans were doing to him in last year's playoffs (something to dig into more later). The Ravens with Lamar Jackson as the starting QB are winless in games where they trailed by 10+ points at halftime One stat that was brought up, and I cannot remember who said it this morning, so forgive me, is that Lamar is 0-9 in games when the Ravens trail by ten or more points at halftime. This stat's significance is alarming, yet it makes sense considering the style of offense that the Ravens like to play. The Ravens offense is predicated on the run game and controlling the clock. I brought this up yesterday in the game preview when I discussed how important it would be for the Ravens to not fall behind by two or more scores as they did a year ago against the Chiefs. The Ravens committing uncharacteristic penalties One other major factor that did not helo the Ravens, penalties. The Ravens came into his game with zero penalties against them. They would finish the game committing 6 for 45 yards. The penalties were often at inopportune moments that would result in a 2nd or 3rd and long situation for the Ravens. You cannot aid that struggle by committing multiple undisciplined errors in a game where you are struggling to throw the football for 100 yards. The winner of this game is in the driver seat for a first-round bye The winner of this game is in the driver seat to obtain the first-round bye. The Chiefs look unbeatable after watching them destroy the Ravens. Spread, Game Total Chiefs covered, game total 54 (under) Player Matchup of The Week Patrick Mahomes: 31-42, 385 yds passing, 4TD's, 0 sacks, Rating: 133.5, 4 rush attempts for 26 yds, and 1 TD. Lamar Jackson: 15-28, 97 yds passing, 1 TD, 4 Sacks, Rating: 73.1, 9 rush attempts for 83 yds, and 0 TD's. High Impact Play Rate Differential Drive Of the Game Decision Of The Game High Impact Player Of The Game Miscellaneous Stats For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. 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