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As fantasy football becomes more complex and competitive, leveraging every possible advantage during your draft is crucial to securing a winning team. One of the more sophisticated strategies for PPR (Points Per Reception) formats revolves around understanding and utilizing target shares for the WR (Wide Receiver) and TE (Tight End) positions (Spoiler, Only one TE makes today's list).
You can probably guess the one TE.
What Target Share Data Can Tell Us
A player's target share or the percentage of team targets a player receives, can be a very revealing statistic. It provides:
Insight into the player's role in the offense.
Their rapport with the quarterback.
Their potential for high-volume production.
This information can paint a comprehensive picture of their expected role and output when paired with a player's projected fantasy points for the upcoming season.
About the Tier-Based Fantasy Football Analysis
This analysis focuses on the top-tier receivers based on their previous season's target share and projected target share for the 2023 season. We are breaking down the receivers using tiers as follows:
Tier 1 WR-TE: Measuring the best value among the top projected pass catchers, 230+ PPR, 24%+ target share
Tier 2 WR-TE: Measuring the best value among the top projected pass catchers, 200-229 PPR, 24%+ target share
Tier 3 WR-TE: Measuring the best value among the top projected pass catchers, 170-199 PPR, 24%+ target share
Tier 4 WR-TE: Measuring the best value among the top projected pass catchers, 150-169 PPR, 24%+ target share
By comparing their 2022 target share to their projected 2023 target share, we can identify potential shifts in offensive strategy, predict changes in player usage, and highlight those players poised for a breakout season.
In the highly competitive world of fantasy football, these nuances and data-driven strategies can give you the edge over your opponents and help you dominate your draft. So let's dive into the data and identify the top-tier receivers for your 2023 PPR fantasy drafts.
Tier 1 WR: Measuring the best value among the top projected pass catchers, 230+ PPR, 24%+ target share
Tyreek Hill, MIA WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 241.56
2022 Player Target Share %: 31%
2023 Projected Target Share: 32%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 6.3
Tyreek Hill has averaged playing in 15 games per season over his six-year professional career. Hill is projected to earn 102 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.38 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 243. However, if Hill plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 269.34, indicating a difference of 26.41 points. His 2022 target share was 31%, projected to increase to 32% in 2023.
Justin Jefferson, MIN WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 254.96
2022 Player Target Share %: 27%
2023 Projected Target Share: 28%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 1
Justin Jefferson has averaged playing 17 games per season over his three-year professional career. Jefferson is projected to have 112 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.40 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 268. Even with a full 17-game season, this projection could only slightly increase to 273.53, indicating a minimal difference of 5.36 points. His 2022 target share was 27%, and it's projected to increase to 28% in 2023 slightly.
Ja'Marr Chase, CIN WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 251.26
2022 Player Target Share %: 23%
2023 Projected Target Share: 25%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 2.7
Ja'Marr Chase has averaged playing in 15 games per season over his two-year professional career. Chase is projected to have 90 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.61 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 235. However, if Chase plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 274.93, indicating a difference of 40.43 points. His 2022 target share was 23%, projected to increase to 25% in 2023.
Cooper Kupp, LA WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 242.36
2022 Player Target Share %: 20%
2023 Projected Target Share: 24%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 5.7
Cooper Kupp has averaged playing in 13 games per season over his six-year professional career. Kupp is projected to have 89 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.23 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 197. However, if Kupp plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 251.2, indicating a significant difference of 54.18 points. His 2022 target share was 20%, projected to increase to 24% in 2023.
Tier 1 WR Summary Analysis
Tyreek Hill, MIA WR (Good Value, Low Risk) Tyreek Hill's six-year professional career average of playing in 15 games per season and earning 2.38 points per opportunity presents a solid foundation. His projected increase in target share in 2023 and high projected fantasy points suggest a strong performance. Hill offers good value with an ADP of 6.3 and is typically picked in the first round. He is a low-risk option due to his consistent performance over the years.
Justin Jefferson, MIN WR (Best Value, Low Risk) Justin Jefferson is a top performer, having played a full 17 games per season over his three-year professional career and earning 2.40 points per opportunity. Jefferson is expected to perform well with a slight projected increase in target share in 2023 and high projected fantasy points. An ADP of 1 means he is often the first pick, making him the best value among these players, and his consistent performance over the years suggests low risk.
Ja'Marr Chase, CIN WR (Good Value, Medium Risk) Ja'Marr Chase has a two-year professional career average of playing in 15 games per season and earning 2.61 points per opportunity. His projected increase in target share in 2023 and high projected fantasy points suggest a strong performance. With an ADP of 2.7, Chase is often picked in the early rounds, offering good value. However, his shorter career and substantial difference in potential points between a full season and his average games played suggest a medium level of risk.
Cooper Kupp, LA WR (Great Value, High Risk) Cooper Kupp, averages 13 games per season since 2017, earning 2.23 points per opportunity. His projected increase in target share in 2023 and potential high points, if he can play an entire season, suggest a strong season could be ahead. With an ADP of 5.7, Kupp offers excellent value and is typically picked in the first round. His significant difference in potential points between an entire season and his average games played indicates a high level of risk.
Tier 2 WR: Measuring the best value among the top projected pass catchers, 200-230 PPR, 24%+ target share
Davante Adams, LV WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 219.88
2022 Player Target Share %: 32%
2023 Projected Target Share: 26%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 13
Davante Adams has averaged playing in 15 games per season since 2017. Adams is projected to have 102 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.46 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 250. However, if Adams plays an entire 17-game season, this projection could increase to 289.77, indicating a difference of 39.77 points. His 2022 target share was 32%, but it's projected to decrease to 26% in 2023.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 221.15
2022 Player Target Share %: 28%
2023 Projected Target Share: 28%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 12
CeeDee Lamb has averaged playing in 16 games per season over his three-year professional career. Lamb is projected to have 96 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.13 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 205. However, if Lamb plays an entire 17-game season, this projection could increase to 213.75, indicating a slight difference of 8.38 points. His target share is projected to remain consistent at 28%.
Stefon Diggs, BUF WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 215.52
2022 Player Target Share %: 27%
2023 Projected Target Share: 26%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 10.7
Stefon Diggs has averaged playing in 16 games per season. Diggs is projected to have 99 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.24 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 221. However, if Diggs plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 242.75, indicating a difference of 21.42 points. His target share is projected to slightly decrease from 27% in 2022 to 26% in 2023.
Travis Kelce, KC TE
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 228.89
2022 Player Target Share %: 26%
2023 Projected Target Share: 24%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 5.7
Travis Kelce has averaged playing in 16 games per season over since 2017. Kelce is projected to have 100 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.32 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 231. However, if Kelce plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 248.22, indicating a difference of 17.03 points. His target share is projected to slightly decrease from 26% in 2022 to 24% in 2023.
Tier 2 WR Summary Analysis
Davante Adams, LV WR (Good Value, Low Risk) Davante Adams is a reliable choice averaging 15 games played per season and earning 2.46 points per opportunity. His projected decrease in target share in 2023 is something to be aware of, but his high projected fantasy points and ADP of 13 suggest he is a good value pick with low risk.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL WR (Good Value, Low Risk) CeeDee Lamb, with his three-year professional career average of playing in 16 games per season and 2.13 points per opportunity, is a consistent performer. His projected fantasy points for 2023 and steady target share suggest he is a low-risk option. With an ADP of 12, Lamb is usually picked in the earlier rounds but still provides good value.
Stefon Diggs, BUF WR (Good Value, Low Risk) Stefon Diggs averages 16 games played per season and earns 2.24 points per opportunity. His projected fantasy points for 2023 and slight decrease in target share suggest a solid, low-risk performance. His ADP of 10.7 implies he is often picked in the earlier rounds, but still provides good value.
Travis Kelce, KC TE (Best Value, Low Risk) Travis Kelce, since 2017, averages 16 games played per season and 2.32 points per opportunity. His slight projected decrease in target share in 2023 is not significantly concerning, and his high projected fantasy points suggest strong performance. With an ADP of 5.7, Kelce is often picked in the first round, offering the best value among these players.
Tier 3 WR: Measuring the best value among the top projected pass catchers, 170-199 PPR, 24%+ target share
Chris Olave, NO WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 185.70
2022 Player Target Share %: 23%
2023 Projected Target Share: 28%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 28.3
In his short one-year professional career, Chris Olave played in 15 games in 2022. Olave is projected to have 72 opportunities this season, averaging 2.28 points per opportunity. His projected fantasy points, based on these stats, would be 164. If Olave plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 186.32, a difference of 21.92 points. His target share is projected to increase from 23% in 2022 to 28% in 2023.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 183.17
2022 Player Target Share %: 25%
2023 Projected Target Share: 24%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 19.3
Garrett Wilson has played a full 17 games in his one-year NFL career. Wilson is projected to have 87 opportunities this season, with an average of 2.03 points per opportunity. His projected fantasy points, based on these stats, would be 176. If Wilson plays a full 17-game season, this projection remains consistent at 176.20, indicating no difference. His target share is projected to slightly decrease from 25% in 2022 to 24% in 2023.
Terry McLaurin, WAS WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 173.81
2022 Player Target Share %: 23%
2023 Projected Target Share: 25%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 48.7
Terry McLaurin has averaged playing in 16 games per season over his four-year professional career. McLaurin is projected to have 77 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.30 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 178. However, if McLaurin plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 191.78, indicating a difference of 14.10 points. His target share is projected to slightly increase from 23% in 2022 to 25% in 2023.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 190.83
2022 Player Target Share %: 21%
2023 Projected Target Share: 25%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 22
Jaylen Waddle has played in 17 games per season over his two-year professional career. Waddle is projected to have 92 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.28 points per opportunity. His projected fantasy points, based on these averages, would be 210. If Waddle plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 216.11, indicating a small difference of 6.36 points. His target share is projected to increase from 21% in 2022 to 25% in 2023.
Tier 3 WR Summary Analysis
Chris Olave, NO WR (Good Value, High Reward) Chris Olave's short one-year career has seen him play in 15 games per season on average, earning 2.28 points per opportunity. His projected fantasy points for 2023 and the expected increase in target share suggest a potential for high rewards. With an ADP of 28.3, Olave is often selected in the middle rounds of the draft, offering good value.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ WR (Good Value, Low Risk) Garrett Wilson's one-year career has seen him play a full 17 games, earning 2.03 points per opportunity. His projected fantasy points for 2023 and the slight decrease in target share suggest a solid, low-risk performance. His ADP of 19.3 implies he is often picked in the earlier rounds, but still provides good value.
Terry McLaurin, WAS WR (Great Value, Moderate Risk) Terry McLaurin, with a four-year career average of playing in 16 games per season and 2.30 points per opportunity, presents a moderate risk due to slight inconsistency. However, his 2023 projected fantasy points and the slight increase in target share suggest a potentially stronger performance. With an ADP of 48.7, McLaurin offers great value as he's often selected in the later rounds of the draft.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA WR (Good Value, Low Risk) Jaylen Waddle's two-year career has seen him play a full 17 games per season, earning 2.28 points per opportunity. His projected fantasy points for 2023 and the expected increase in target share suggest a consistent, low-risk performance. His ADP of 22 implies he is often picked in the earlier rounds but still provides good value.
Tier 4 WR: Measuring the best value among the top projected pass catchers, 150-169 PPR, 24%+ target share
Drake London, ATL WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 163.24
2022 Player Target Share %: 29%
2023 Projected Target Share: 37%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 55.3
In his one-year professional career, Drake London has played a full 17 games. London is projected to have 72 opportunities this season, with an average of 2.04 points per opportunity. His projected fantasy points, based on these stats, would be 147. If London plays a full 17-game season, this projection remains consistent at 146.60, indicating virtually no difference. His target share is projected to increase significantly from 29% in 2022 to 37% in 2023.
D.J. Moore, CHI WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 168.00
2022 Player Target Share %: 32%
2023 Projected Target Share: 27%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 51.3
D.J. Moore has averaged playing in 16 games per season over his five-year professional career. Moore is projected to have 80 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 2.14 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 172. However, if Moore plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 182.84, indicating a difference of 10.76 points. His target share is projected to decrease from 32% in 2022 to 27% in 2023.
Diontae Johnson, PIT WR
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 152.33
2022 Player Target Share %: 29%
2023 Projected Target Share: 25%
Current Average Draft Position (ADP): 70
Diontae Johnson has averaged playing in 16 games per season over his four-year professional career. Johnson is projected to have 90 opportunities this season, yielding an average of 1.86 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 167. If Johnson plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 177.44, indicating a difference of 10.44 points. His target share is projected to decrease from 29% in 2022 to 25% in 2023.
Tier 4 WR Summary Analysis
Drake London, ATL WR (Good Value, Low Risk) Drake London, with only one year in his professional career, has already shown promising performance by playing a full 17 games and averaging 2.04 points per opportunity. His projected significant increase in target share in 2023 from 29% to 37% indicates a potentially strong performance. London offers good value with an ADP of 55.3 and is typically picked in the mid-rounds. He is a low-risk option due to his consistent performance in his first year.
D.J. Moore, CHI WR (Best Value, Medium Risk) D.J. Moore has a five-year professional career average of playing in 16 games per season and earning 2.14 points per opportunity. His projected decrease in target share in 2023 from 32% to 27% may impact his performance. However, Moore offers great value with an ADP of 51.3 and is typically picked in the mid-rounds. The difference in potential points between a full season and his average games played suggests a medium level of risk.
Diontae Johnson, PIT WR (Great Value, High Risk) Diontae Johnson, with his four-year career average of playing in 16 games per season and earning 1.86 points per opportunity, offers the best value with an ADP of 70. However, his projected decrease in target share in 2023 from 29% to 25% and the difference in potential points between a full season and his average games played indicate a high level of risk. His lower projected fantasy points compared to the others also suggest a potential downside.