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Analysis: Impact of Quarterback Run Game on Fantasy Football Value (2017-2022)
The growing influence of the QB run game in fantasy football has become a focal point in recent years. By analyzing the data from 2017 through 2022, this article will explore whether QBs who frequently engage in the run game contribute to higher overall fantasy points, potentially indicating a greater fantasy value.
Data Overview
The table below compares the average fantasy points generated by QBs from the run game and their overall fantasy points from 2017 to 2022 season.
The data shows a moderate increase in the contribution of the run game to total fantasy points over the years. From 2017 to 2022, the percentage of fantasy points generated from the run game increased from 13% to 19%.
Comparing Top Performances
To further investigate this trend, we evaluated the top ten fantasy performances from 2018 to 2022:
This data suggests a trend where QBs achieve higher fantasy points with a higher percentage of points from the run game. Interestingly, this pattern seems more prominent in the top performances, with an average of 20% of the points stemming from the run game, compared to 14% when considering all QB performances.
To identify the QBs driving this trend, we can consider individual players such as Lamar Jackson (2019), Justin Fields (2022), Jalen Hurts (2021 and 2022), and Josh Allen (2020, 2021, and 2022), who all showed high fantasy points from the run game, thereby contributing significantly to their overall fantasy points.
Run Game Centric QBs
Next, we focused on QBs who produced 100 or more of their total fantasy points through the run game. Here is a summary of the top 10 performances:
The data reveals that their overall fantasy points increase considerably when QBs contribute significantly to the run game. The percentage of fantasy points derived from running reaches an impressive average of 39%.
Conclusion
The data from 2017 to 2022 indicates an evolving landscape for fantasy football QBs, where the ability to contribute to the run game is becoming increasingly crucial for higher fantasy value. While other factors, such as a team's offensive strategy, the strength of their offensive line, and individual QB skills, are essential, the running ability of a QB cannot be overlooked when drafting a successful fantasy team.
Today's Analysis And What We are Looking To Identify
Quantifying Quarterbacks Based on the Percentage of Fantasy Points Earned as a Runner: In 2022, Justin Fields stood out, scoring 162 of his 296 total fantasy points in the run game. This equates to 21% more fantasy points earned as a runner than a passer. Following Fields, Jalen Hurts scored 154 fantasy points as a runner, Josh Allen scored 118, and Daniel Jones added 112.
Forecasting 2023 What Player Could Rival Lamar Jackson's 2019 MVP Performance?
Early projections for 2023 suggest that the same names will continue to dominate as runners. One player who could reach MVP-level numbers in 2023 is Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields. The Bears' upgraded wide receiver core, particularly with the addition of D.J. Moore from the Carolina Panthers, positions Fields to advance as a passer in the NFL. Lamar Jackson could repeat his 2019 magic if he remains healthy while playing in a new offense with intentions of opening up the passing game. Jalen Hurts could also go to another level and elevate his game a step further. In my opinion, there is a better-than-good opportunity for someone to win the NFL MVP in 2023 because of their ability to run and pass at a high level. I am hedging on that player potentially being Justin Fields.
2023 Quarterback Projections Influenced by Rushing Capabilities
Preliminary projections strongly indicate that quarterbacks who offer an additional running dimension will thrive. To succeed in fantasy football, it's crucial to identify when and where to draft these top-tier players and how to pinpoint the best value. In the following sections, I'll present my quarterback rankings in tiers alongside their current ADP to illustrate when and where these players might be available in a one-quarterback fantasy redraft.
Tier 1 Dual Threat QB's Based On Career Production:
QB's who have produced 30% or higher of their career fantasy points as a runner
Jalen Hurts, PHI QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 371.95
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 42.2%
ADP: 23
Jalen Hurts has averaged 15 games per season over his three-year career. Hurts is expected to have 470.3 opportunities for the upcoming season, providing an average of 0.66 points per opportunity. Based on his career averages, Hurts's projected fantasy points would total 311. However, if Hurts plays a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 352.62, indicating a difference of 41.48 points. Considering his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Hurts's final fantasy projection for 2023 reaches 371.95.
Josh Allen, BUF QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 370.70
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 30.4%
ADP: 20.7
In his five-year career, Josh Allen has averaged 15 games per season. Allen is anticipated to have 622.6 opportunities this season, with an average of 0.60 points per opportunity. Utilizing his career averages, Allen's fantasy points are projected to be 372. If Allen plays all 17 games of the season, the projection could rise to 410.86, marking a difference of 38.67 points. Allen's final fantasy projection for 2023, which incorporates his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, stands at 370.70.
Lamar Jackson, BLT QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 339.64
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 40.7%
ADP: 39
Throughout his five-year career, Lamar Jackson has averaged 14 games per season. This season, he is projected to have 476.4 opportunities with an average of 0.73 points per opportunity. Jackson's projected fantasy points using his career averages would amount to 348. If Jackson plays an entire 17-game season, this projection will increase to 422.58, illustrating a difference of 74.57 points. Considering his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Jackson's final fantasy projection for 2023 is 339.64.
Justin Fields, CHI QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 319.43
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 47.5%
ADP: 46.3
In his two-year professional career, Justin Fields has averaged 14 games per season. Fields is expected to have 409.5 opportunities this season, providing an average of 0.57 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, his projected fantasy points would be 234. However, if Fields plays an entire 17-game season, this projection could increase to 294.91, indicating a difference of 60.72 points. When considering his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Fields's final fantasy projection for 2023 is 319.43.
Tier 1 QB Summary Analysis
Jalen Hurts, PHI QB (Bad Value, Safe Bet) Jalen Hurts, with a three-year career average of playing in 15 games per season and earning 0.66 points per opportunity, doesn't offer great value with an ADP of 23. However, his high percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards (42.2%) and the potential increase in points if he plays a full season suggest he's a safe bet, despite the higher draft cost.
Josh Allen, BUF QB (Bad Value, Safe Bet) Josh Allen has a five-year career average of playing in 15 games per season and earning 0.60 points per opportunity. With an ADP of 20.7, Allen is another player who doesn't offer great value due to the high draft cost. Nevertheless, his decent percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards (30.4%) and the potential increase in points, if he plays a full season, make him another safe bet.
Lamar Jackson, BLT QB (Great Value, High Reward) Lamar Jackson, with a five-year career average of playing in 14 games per season and earning 0.73 points per opportunity, offers great value with an ADP of 39. His high percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards (40.7%) and the significant potential increase in points if he plays a full season suggest he's a high reward player.
Justin Fields, CHI QB (Great Value, High Risk, High Reward) Justin Fields, in his two-year professional career, has averaged playing in 14 games per season and earning 0.57 points per opportunity. With an ADP of 46.3, Fields offers great value. His high percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards (47.5%) and the considerable potential increase in points if he plays a full season suggest he's a high reward player. However, the difference in potential points between a full season and his average games played indicates a high level of risk.
Tier 2 Dual Threat QB's Based On Career Production:
QB's who have produced 20-29% of their career fantasy points as a runner.
Deshaun Watson, CLV QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 306.48
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 22.2%
ADP: 77.7
Deshaun Watson, in five years, averages 12 games per season. Watson is expected to have 452.4 opportunities this season, averaging 0.57 points per opportunity. If we base his projected fantasy points on these career averages, it will total 258. However, if Watson plays an entire 17-game season, the projection could increase to 365.15, making a difference of 107.40 points. After mixing his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Watson's final fantasy projection for 2023 is 306.48.
Daniel Jones, NYG QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 294.67
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 26.6%
ADP: 94.3
Daniel Jones, over his four-year professional career, averages 14 games per season. Jones is predicted to have 507.8 opportunities this season, averaging 0.45 points per opportunity. Jones's projected fantasy points would be 229 based on these career averages. If he plays an entire 17-game season, the projection could rise to 288.88, showing a difference of 59.48 points. Accounting for his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Jones's final fantasy projection for 2023 is 294.67.
Kyler Murray, ARZ QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 214.36
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 29.7%
ADP: 146
With a four-years under his belt, Kyler Murray averages 14 games per season. He might miss the early stage of the 2023 season from last year's ACL injury, but if healthy, Murray is expected to have 588.3 opportunities this season, averaging 0.54 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, Murray's projected fantasy points would be 316. If Murray plays a full 17-game season, the projection could rise to 377.10, showing a difference of 61.00 points. Considering his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Murray's current fantasy projection for 2023 is 214.36.
Tier 2 QB Summary Analysis
Deshaun Watson, CLV QB (Great Value, High Reward) Despite having a lower average of games played per season, Watson's high percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards and a significant potential increase in points with an entire season make him a great value pick. His projected 2023 fantasy points is 306.48, and given his ADP of 77.7, he offers a high reward for those willing to bet on him playing more games.
Daniel Jones, NYG QB (Good Value, Safe Bet) With a higher average of games played per season and a substantial potential increase in points with a full season, Jones is a good value pick. His projected 2023 fantasy points is 294.67, and his ADP of 94.3 reflects a safe bet for consistent performance, mainly due to his high percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards.
Kyler Murray, ARZ QB (Riskier Value, High Reward) Murray's value is a bit riskier due to his recent ACL injury and uncertainty with the Cardinals. However, his high percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards and potential increase in points with a full season could offer a high reward. His projected 2023 fantasy points is 214.36, and his ADP of 146 reflects the risk associated with his current situation. His value could significantly increase if he recovers well and secures his position.
Tier 3 Dual Threat QB's Based On Career Production:
QB's who have produced 11-19% of their career fantasy points as a runner.
Patrick Mahomes, KC QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 376.12
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 11.8%
ADP: 20.7
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 15 games per season over his six-year professional career. This season, he is projected to have 548.3 opportunities, with an average of 0.58 points per opportunity. Based on these career averages, Mahomes' projected fantasy points would total 317. However, should he complete a full 17-game season, this projection could increase to 404.07, creating a difference of 87.15 points. Considering his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Mahomes' final fantasy projection for 2023 is 376.12.
Joe Burrow, CIN QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 346.67
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 12.7%
ADP: 37.3
Over his three-year professional career, Joe Burrow has averaged 14 games per season. This season, Burrow is expected to have 560.7 opportunities, yielding an average of 0.51 points per opportunity. Burrow's projected fantasy points would be 287 based on these career averages. If he plays a full 17-game season, this projection could rise to 347.96, making a difference of 61.40 points. Considering his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Burrow's final fantasy projection for 2023 is 346.67.
Justin Herbert, LAC QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 310.48
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 11.4%
ADP: 50.7
In his three-year professional career, Justin Herbert averages 16 games per season. He's projected to have 712.7 opportunities this season, averaging 0.47 points per opportunity. If we base his projected fantasy points on these career averages, it would total 337. However, if Herbert plays a full 17-game season, the projection could increase to 351.10, showing a difference of 13.77 points. Upon considering his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Herbert's final fantasy projection for 2023 is 310.48.
Trevor Lawrence, JAX QB
Projected 2023 Fantasy Points: 296.64
% of Fantasy Points from Rush Yds: 19.4%
ADP: 59.3
With two years of NFL experience, Trevor Lawrence has proven durable. Lawrence is expected to have 660.0 opportunities this season, averaging 0.41 points per opportunity. These career averages show Lawrence's projected fantasy points would be 272. If he plays a full 17-game season, this projection will remain the same at 271.89, showing no difference. Considering his points per opportunity and projected 2023 stats, Lawrence's final projected fantasy points in 2023 are 296.64.
Tier 3 QB Summary Analysis
Patrick Mahomes, KC QB (Bad Value, Safe Bet) Despite having a lower percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards compared to other dual-threat QBs, Mahomes' consistent performance and potential points increase with a full season make him a safe bet. However, his high ADP of 20.7 compared to his projected 2023 fantasy points of 376.12 might not offer the best value.
Joe Burrow, CIN QB (Great Value, Safe Bet) With a decent percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards and a potentially significant increase in points with an entire season, Burrow offers excellent value. His projected 2023 fantasy points is 346.67, and his ADP of 37.3 reflects a safe bet for consistent performance.
Justin Herbert, LAC QB (Good Value, Safe Bet) Herbert's lower percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards and smaller potential increase in points with a full season compared to other QBs make him a good value pick. His projected 2023 fantasy points is 310.48, and his ADP of 50.7 reflects a safe bet for consistent performance.
Trevor Lawrence, JAX QB (Good Value, High Risk) Lawrence's high percentage of fantasy points from rushing yards offers good value, but his projection shows no increase in points with a full season, which is rare among dual-threat QBs. His projected 2023 fantasy points are 296.64, and his ADP of 59.3 reflects a high risk due to the uncertainty surrounding the Jaguars' offensive scheme and Lawrence's development.
Summary Analysis 2023 Fantasy Football Dual Threat QB Tier Rankings
In conclusion, the 2023 fantasy football quarterback tier analysis highlights the importance of considering a player's dual-threat ability, projected fantasy points, and Average Draft Position (ADP) when making draft decisions. Among the top-tier quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen lead in projected fantasy points, while Justin Fields demonstrates a remarkable rushing ability and an improved WR core; his ceiling is pretty high in 2023. Lamar Jackson offers the best balance between projected points and ADP, presenting excellent value.
In the second tier, quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones are players with high rushing upside, Watson is the more elite thrower between him and Daniel Jones, but Watson has yet to prove he will return to form since his time in Houston. Despite his injury concerns, Kyler Murray's high potential makes him a risky but potentially rewarding choice.
Finally, Patrick Mahomes shines with the highest projected fantasy points in the third tier of quarterbacks who have produced 11-19% of their career fantasy points as runners. However, considering ADP, Joe Burrow emerges as a prime pick, offering a compelling mix of value and performance.