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- Ty Simpson NFL Draft Scouting Report
2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Alabama QB Ty Simpson Ty Simpson’s rise from unproven depth piece to one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country has been one of the defining storylines of the 2025 college football season. In his first year as Alabama’s starter, Simpson has quickly elevated himself into first-round range. At 6’2”, 208 pounds, Simpson lacks prototype size but compensates with elite poise, quick processing, and advanced playmaking instincts. He’s a rhythm passer with an elastic arm, twitchy athleticism, and the ability to create second-reaction plays without sacrificing structure. A coach’s son with strong football DNA, Simpson blends discipline and improvisation as seamlessly as any passer in the 2026 NFL Draft class. Film Summary Simpson’s film reveals a confident, adaptable quarterback who thrives in chaos. He demonstrates high-level pocket awareness, keeps his eyes downfield while maneuvering away from pressure, and displays consistent accuracy on the move. His release is quick and compact, generating effortless velocity and pinpoint short-to-intermediate placement. What separates Simpson is his composure and situational precision. He’s been at his best on “got to have it” downs (3rd & 4+). When the moment demands it, Simpson maintains his base, resets his platform, and fires strikes into tight windows. While his arm strength is more “very good” than elite, his mechanical consistency and sequencing allow him to generate high-end velocity from a variety of angles. Ideal Scheme Fit West Coast / Spread Hybrid Offense — systems that emphasize timing. Simpson fits modern pro schemes, such as those used by the Lions, Rams, or Chargers, which rely on quick triggers, layered route concepts, and controlled movement within the pocket. Key Strengths (Film-Based Traits) Poise and composure: Remains calm under duress, manipulates space in collapsing pockets, and delivers with balance and precision. Processing and anticipation: Reads coverage rotations quickly and triggers throws on time, particularly in the short and intermediate levels. Accuracy and mechanics: Smooth, compact release with excellent hip torque; places the ball where only his receivers can make a play. Extension ability: Mobile enough to escape pressure and reset his base; creates off-script without panic or chaos. Clutch execution: Statistically dominant in late-game and high-pressure scenarios; displays high football character and leadership. Developmental Areas (Growth Opportunities) Experience: Just a one-year starter; still developing reps and defensive recognition consistency. Arm strength ceiling: More functional than elite; must prove he can consistently drive the football into tight NFL windows outside the hashes. Pocket patience: Occasionally holds the ball too long (3.0+ seconds average time-to-throw); must speed up internal clock against faster pro rushers. Ball security: Three recorded fumbles in 2025; needs to improve grip awareness and pocket ball protection. Grade and Projection Football Scout 365 Grade: Under Review Ceiling Grade: Under Review NFL Draft Projection: Under Review Pro Comparison: Brock Purdy with more twitch — an efficient rhythm passer with elite pocket instincts, mobility, and late-down poise. Final Analysis Ty Simpson has turned limited experience into elite production through poise, processing, and precision. He’s a natural leader who thrives under pressure, balancing timing-based efficiency with improvisational creativity. His size and arm talent won’t blow evaluators away, but his mechanical polish, field vision, and competitive edge evoke starting-caliber stability from Day 1. Simpson projects as a scheme-versatile, long-term NFL starter in offenses that value quick processing, accuracy, and controlled mobility. If he continues to mature in full-field reads and maintains ball security, he could challenge for QB1 status in the 2026 class and cement himself as one of the most dependable quarterbacks in the draft.
- Dante Moore NFL Draft Scouting Report
2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Oregon QB Dante Moore Dante Moore is a natural thrower with top-tier rhythm, touch, and anticipation — built for modern NFL systems that marry pro-style structure with spread spacing. A former 5-star recruit and current leader of Oregon’s high-powered offense, Moore has taken a decisive leap forward in 2025, showing the mechanical polish and pocket maturity evaluators expected from one of the top quarterback prospects in the nation. At 6’3”, 206 pounds, Moore plays with a calm command rarely seen in underclassmen. His compact release and quick mental trigger make him an ideal fit for timing-based, rhythm passing offenses that emphasize full-field reads and controlled tempo. In 2025, he posted an FBS-best 3.2% pressure-to-sack rate, showcasing poise and spatial awareness in collapsing pockets. While not an overwhelming athlete or power thrower, Moore’s accuracy, touch, and field IQ make him one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football — a polished passer with franchise-level potential. Film Summary Moore’s film reveals a poised, technically refined quarterback who plays with rhythm and balance. He processes coverages quickly and consistently layers throws with precision, especially on crossers and intermediate routes. His mechanics are crisp and repeatable, with a natural throwing motion that delivers an exceptionally catchable football. When extending plays, Moore maintains his base and vision, making sound decisions on the move. He’s a confident pocket operator who manipulates defenders with his eyes and shoulders, consistently finding open windows through timing and anticipation. Ideal Scheme Fit Pro-Style with Spread Elements — excels in quick-rhythm, timing-based systems that incorporate vertical play-action and intermediate drive concepts. Fits best in schemes similar to those run by the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, or Los Angeles Rams, where precision, layered concepts, and timing define the passing game. Key Strengths (Film-Based Traits) Rhythm and accuracy: Delivers with perfect tempo and consistent placement in short and intermediate areas. Pocket poise: Calm and spatially aware, rarely flustered under pressure; maintains platform integrity. Processing and anticipation: Reads coverages quickly, manipulates defenders, and times throws before breaks. Mechanical polish: Compact, repeatable release; consistently balanced footwork in rhythm. Throw on the move: Maintains touch and accuracy when forced off-platform or rolling to either side. Developmental Areas (Growth Opportunities) Deep-ball velocity: Lacks elite drive on vertical throws; must maximize trajectory control at deeper depths. Footwork under duress: Can rush setup when interior pressure collapses; must reset base more consistently. Explosiveness outside structure: Athletic but not dynamic — more efficient than elusive when scrambling. Grade and Projection Football Scout 365 Grade: High-End Starter Potential (73.8) A quarterback prospect with advanced mechanics, field command, and top-tier accuracy who projects as a quality NFL starter early in his career. With continued growth, he has the skill set to develop into a long-term franchise cornerstone. Ceiling Grade: Elite Tier Starter (77.0) NFL Draft Projection: Mid-to-Late 1st Round Pro Comparison: C.J. Stroud / Jayden Daniels hybrid — anticipatory rhythm passer with layered touch and precision in timing-based offenses. Final Analysis Dante Moore projects as a modern, in-structure quarterback with high-level starter upside in the NFL. His combination of processing speed, accuracy, and pocket awareness allows him to thrive in systems that prioritize rhythm and decisiveness. While he lacks elite size or dual-threat explosiveness, his technical polish and situational poise give him the floor of a Day 1 starter, with the potential to develop into an elite-tier franchise quarterback as his vertical game continues to mature.
- Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft Scouting Report
2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Fernando Mendoza has emerged as one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft class after transferring to Indiana and immediately elevating the Hoosiers’ offense. At 6’5”, 225 pounds, Mendoza brings an ideal NFL frame paired with natural passing instincts, decisive processing, and consistent ball placement on short-to-intermediate throws. Originally a 3-star recruit in the 2022 class (per 247Sports), Mendoza flashed NFL-level arm talent at California before transferring in 2025 to play under Kurt Cignetti. His command of Indiana’s pro-style/RPO hybrid offense and ability to diagnose coverage post-snap have drawn comparisons to modern system passers like Jared Goff. Film Summary Mendoza’s film showcases a composed pocket passer who wins with anticipation, accuracy, and mental processing. He manipulates defenders with his eyes, layers throws over linebackers, and delivers on-time passes into tight windows. His base and mechanics are consistent from clean pockets, and his arm strength allows him to drive the football to all three levels. Though not a dynamic runner, Mendoza has enough mobility to escape pressure and deliver off-platform throws with poise. Ideal Scheme Fit Pro-Style / RPO Blend Offense — best suited for timing-based passing attacks emphasizing rhythm, layered route concepts, and pocket efficiency. Fits offenses similar to the Rams, Lions, or Vikings, where timing and anticipation define the quarterback play. Key Strengths (Film-Based Traits) Outstanding size and frame: Ideal 6’5” build with high release and easy velocity generation. Advanced processing and anticipation: Quick post-snap reader who identifies coverage rotations and triggers throws rapidly. Touch and layering ability: Adjusts trajectory and pace to fit passes over defenders and drop into tight windows. Composure under pressure: Keeps eyes downfield and delivers accurately despite pocket collapse. Functional mobility: Not a runner, but capable of extending plays and maintaining throwing posture outside structure. Developmental Areas (Growth Opportunities) Deep-ball consistency: Occasionally underthrows or over-strides, leading to placement variance on vertical concepts. Pocket mechanics under duress: Feet can drift when pressured; must continue refining reset discipline. Decision-making confidence: At times trusts arm too much, forcing throws into congested windows. Eye manipulation: Can further develop ability to move safeties and linebackers post-snap to expand throwing lanes. Grade and Projection Ceiling Grade: Near Elite. With continued refinement in pocket mechanics and vertical accuracy, Mendoza could ascend into the early first-round “Near Elite” range. NFL Draft Projection: Mid to late 1st round Pro Comparison: Jared Goff — similar size, rhythm-based accuracy, and anticipatory timing within structure. Final Analysis Fernando Mendoza profiles as a polished pocket passer whose game is predicated on timing, anticipation, and mental acuity. He combines a pro-ready frame with efficient mechanics and high-level touch, projecting as one of the safest quarterback prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft. While he lacks elite off-script athleticism, his field command and operational maturity stand out. In the right fit—particularly a system that values timing and progression-based reads—Mendoza has the tools to become a long-term NFL starter with fringe Pro Bowl upside.
- Peter Woods NFL Draft Scouting Report
2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Clemson DL Peter Woods Peter Woods enters the 2026 NFL Draft as one of the premier defensive linemen in college football and a projected top-five overall pick. At 6’3”, 310 pounds, the Clemson standout combines rare explosiveness, heavy hands, and technical polish, making him one of the most dominant interior defenders. A former five-star recruit, Woods has lived up to expectations since arriving in Death Valley, earning Freshman All-American honors and developing into the top defensive tackle in the country by his junior season. Despite facing constant double teams, Woods consistently anchored Clemson’s front, displaying elite power, short-area burst, and a relentless motor that make him a disruptive force against both the run and the pass. Film Summary Woods’ tape showcases an interior defender who blends violent leverage play with twitchy athleticism. He’s explosive off the snap, uses his hands with technical precision, and resets the line of scrimmage with brute power. As a run defender, Woods’ ability to two-gap, shed, and stack blockers makes him one of the most complete interior players in the class. He plays low and compact, generating torque that overwhelms even the strongest offensive linemen. As a pass-rusher, Woods thrives on speed-to-power conversion and has refined his hand usage with rip and arm-over counters. While he’s not yet a high-volume sack producer, his disruption rate and ability to collapse the pocket consistently impact opposing quarterbacks. His football IQ and quick processing allow him to read blocking concepts instantly, making him equally valuable as a penetrator or a control-based gap defender. Ideal Scheme Fit Woods projects as a scheme-proof interior defender who can dominate from multiple alignments. He’s best suited as a 3-technique in an attacking 4-3 front or as a 2i/4i hybrid in odd fronts that prioritize gap versatility and penetration. Teams like Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Detroit that value explosive, multipurpose defensive linemen would maximize his impact. Key Strengths Elite first-step explosiveness: Quick off the snap with rare burst for his size. Power and leverage dominance: Creates immediate displacement with violent hand strikes. Technical refinement: Advanced stack-and-shed technique with a developed counter arsenal. Football intelligence: Reads and reacts to blocking schemes instantly. High motor: Relentless competitor who plays through the whistle. Developmental Areas Pad-level consistency: Can rise out of stance, diminishing leverage against doubles. Length limitations: Shorter arms occasionally restrict reach disengagement. Pass-rush sequencing: Still developing a deeper variety of secondary counters. Grade and Projection Summary Football Scout 365 Grade: Near Elite - A high-caliber, scheme-diverse interior defender with rare power, explosiveness, and technical polish. Woods consistently wins with leverage, hand strength, and first-step quickness, projecting as an immediate impact starter and tone-setter on the defensive line. Ceiling Grade: Elite: Franchise-caliber upside — possesses the explosive athleticism, power profile, and block-destruction traits to develop into one of the NFL’s premier interior disruptors. NFL Draft Projection: Top 15 Picks (1st Round) Pro Comparison: Mason Graham / Jalen Carter hybrid — mirrors Graham’s compact frame, leverage mastery, and short-area torque, while flashing the high-end explosiveness and raw disruption potential reminiscent of Carter at his peak. Final Analysis Peter Woods is the prototype of a modern NFL interior disruptor — explosive, technically refined, and relentless. His combination of low center of gravity, violent hands, and rare athletic twitch allows him to consistently win leverage battles and dictate tempo in the trenches. Woods has already proven capable of commanding double teams and anchoring against both the run and pass, and his football IQ makes him plug-and-play ready for any scheme. He projects as a day-one starter with the potential to become a perennial All-Pro and defensive cornerstone at the next level. Simply put, Woods embodies the traits of a blue-chip prospect — one of the safest, most complete players in the 2026 NFL Draft class.
- 2026 NFL Draft Early Declarations: How the Process Works and Why It Matters
As the college football postseason begins, the 2026 NFL Draft evaluation cycle officially shifts into its early-declaration phase. For NFL scouts, front offices, and draft analysts, this is the point in the calendar where the class begins to crystallize — as underclassmen make the definitive decision to forgo remaining eligibility and enter the draft. Rather than serving as a live declaration tracker, this article is designed to explain the early declaration process, outline key eligibility rules and deadlines, and provide context on how early entrants shape the overall draft landscape. For readers looking to track real-time declaration updates, the NFL maintains an official underclassmen tracker, which can be found here: 2026 NFL Draft Underclassmen Tracker 2026 NFL Draft: Eligibility and Early Declaration Rules When Is the 2026 NFL Draft? The 91st NFL Draft will be held April 23–25, 2026, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Who Is Eligible to Enter the 2026 NFL Draft? A prospect becomes eligible for the NFL Draft once three years have passed since their high school graduating class. That includes: Players who have exhausted their collegiate eligibility Underclassmen (redshirt sophomores or juniors) who declare for special eligibility, forfeiting remaining NCAA eligibility From a scouting perspective, early entrants typically fall into one of three evaluation profiles: Clear Day 1–Day 2 projections Premium-position players (QB, EDGE, CB, OT, WR) with strong trait baselines Scheme-specific or role-defined prospects whose draft value has likely peaked Early Declaration Deadlines for Underclassmen The NFL now uses multiple declaration deadlines to accommodate postseason participation: January 5, 2026 - Early deadline allowing underclassmen to declare in time for college all-star game eligibility. January 14, 2026 - Traditional declaration deadline for most underclassmen. January 23, 2026 - Extended deadline for underclassmen competing in the College Football Playoff National Championship. *Once a player officially declares, that decision is irrevocable. How Early Declarations Shape the 2026 Draft Class Early declarations are one of the most influential structural forces in the draft cycle. They directly affect: Positional depth across the class All-star game invitations and practice exposure NFL Combine invite thresholds Day 2 vs. Day 3 clustering Return-to-school decisions for fringe prospects From a front-office lens, many early entrants already carry preliminary grades based on fall film. Declaring early often signals confidence that additional college reps are unlikely to materially improve draft positioning. What to Watch as the Process Continues Over the coming weeks, the 2026 NFL Draft landscape will continue to take shape with: Additional underclassmen declarations Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl acceptances CFP-related deadline decisions Early medical and background evaluations Clearer separation at premium positions
- 2026 NFL Draft Big Board Rankings: Updated Top 50 and Position Rankings
As we head into December, the 2026 NFL Draft Big Board is starting to come into focus. A defensive back, a hybrid edge, and a pure pass rusher are all making legitimate cases to be the top player in the class. This is before factoring in a quarterback race that could completely reshape the top 10 of round one. The Quarterback Race Right now, we have three signal-callers — Fernando Mendoza (Indiana), Dante Moore (Oregon), and Ty Simpson (Alabama) — who each could go No. 1 overall depending on draft order. However, all three still hold college eligibility, which adds another layer of chaos to an already unpredictable class. Defensive Talent at the Top At the top, the defensive talent remains elite. Caleb Downs (Ohio State), Arvell Reese (Ohio State), and Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) headline the board. Truthfully, any of the three could make a case for the top overall spot. Downs’ versatility and polish give him the edge for now, but Reese’s hybrid impact and Bain’s traditional edge dominance make the top tier as close as any in recent memory. This class is defined by its defensive depth at linebacker, edge rusher, and interior defensive lineman (IDL). The trenches are loaded with elite talent and solid depth pieces. The linebacker group is versatile, and the wide receiver class is showing early signs of star power. This is led by Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), Carnell Tate (Ohio State), and Makai Lemon (USC). With the final weeks of the college football season ahead, including rivalry week, conference championships, and the College Football Playoff, the 2026 NFL Draft landscape is beginning to take shape. Click here to jump to the individual player rankings 2026 NFL Draft Big Board: Top 50 Overall Prospect Rankings 1. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State (6’0”, 205) Downs is the prototype modern safety. He is a high-IQ, interchangeable defender who can align deep, in the slot, or in the box. His instincts, tackling consistency, and field command make him a defensive coordinator’s extension on the field. He is an ideal fit for split-safety or match-zone systems (49ers, Eagles, Ravens) that rely on communication and disguise. He can also thrive as a cover-2 or big nickel safety in 4-2-5 structures. 2. Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State (6’4”, 243) Reese is a modern front-seven weapon. He is best deployed as a hybrid MIKE/SAM/EDGE in multiple fronts. His true three-down impact comes from his ability to stack blocks in base, rush with power on passing downs, and plug gaps in blitz-heavy looks. His style mirrors a “Micah Parsons-lite” profile — dominant power, inside-out utility, and rare scheme versatility. 3. Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami (6’3”, 275) Bain is a disruptive, technically refined pass rusher. He wins with leverage, hand power, and elite motor. He fits best in attacking 4-3 fronts as a hand-in-the-dirt edge or reduced 5-tech, but he can also slide inside on passing downs. With polish, he projects as an early NFL contributor with Pro Bowl-level potential. 4. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (6’0”, 210) Love is an explosive, two-phase offensive weapon. He thrives in space and is built for wide-zone and outside-zone systems. His one-cut burst and natural receiving skills create mismatch potential in motion and slot alignments. He projects as a modern feature back with RB1 upside in tempo-driven offenses. 5. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State (6’1”, 195) Tyson is a dynamic vertical threat. He possesses route precision and field-stretching speed. His alignment flexibility — boundary, slot, or motion — makes him ideal for timing-based or vertical-spread offenses. He profiles as a WR1-caliber prospect with pro-ready separation and playmaking traits. 6. Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn (6’6”, 290) Faulk is a power-based, multi-alignment defender. He has inside-out utility and is best suited for 3-4 fronts as a 5-tech DE or base end in a 4-3. He wins with strength, leverage, and heavy hands. His versatility and edge-setting ability make him a valuable piece for hybrid defenses. 7. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State (6’3”, 191) Tate is a polished route runner with advanced spatial awareness. He thrives in West Coast and rhythm offenses. His smooth movement and reliable hands make him a high-volume target who consistently finds soft spots in coverage. 8. Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee (6’0”, 195) McCoy is a fluid, explosive cover corner built for man-match systems. His mirror technique, anticipation, and ball skills give him CB1 upside in press and match-quarters schemes. If healthy post-ACL recovery, he projects as an immediate impact starter. 9. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah (6’5”, 304) Fano offers plug-and-play reliability. He has elite run-blocking leverage and technical consistency. He’s scheme-diverse, capable of excelling in both zone and power concepts, and projects as a long-term starter with All-Pro ceiling. 10. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (6’5”, 225) Mendoza brings prototypical size and poise. He excels in RPO and play-action concepts. He’s efficient from the pocket, shows timing and touch at all levels, and has the tools to develop into a high-end starter in pro-style or spread hybrid systems. 11. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (6’6”, 315) Mauigoa is one of the most naturally gifted linemen in the class. His blend of size, movement skills, and competitive toughness sets him apart. He’s a Day 1 right tackle with the athleticism and power to thrive in either wide-zone or gap/power systems. With refined hand usage and continued growth, he has legitimate All-Pro potential. 12. Makai Lemon, WR, USC (5’11”, 195) Lemon is a twitchy, high-IQ slot receiver. He thrives in quick-strike offenses built on timing and leverage. His short-area quickness and route pacing allow him to separate at will. His toughness over the middle makes him a natural fit in West Coast or RPO-heavy schemes. 13. Peter Woods, IDL, Clemson (6’3”, 315) Woods is a rare interior defender. He combines elite power, quickness, and leverage. Capable of thriving at 3-tech or 5-tech, he fits best in one-gap systems that emphasize disruption. His explosiveness and hand strength give him game-wrecking potential reminiscent of Quinnen Williams or Chris Jones. 14. Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama (6’7”, 369) Proctor brings prototype size and raw strength to the blindside. He is a mauler in the run game with improving pass protection. He fits best in power/gap schemes but flashes enough agility to hold his own in zone concepts. With better leverage and conditioning, he projects as a franchise-caliber left tackle. 15. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech (6’3”, 250) A former Stanford standout, Bailey is an explosive edge defender. He has bend, burst, and a relentless motor. His athleticism and fluidity in space make him an ideal 3-4 OLB or hybrid rusher in multiple fronts. If his strength profile continues to improve, he’ll push for Round 1 consideration. 16. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU (6’0”, 190) Delane is a physical, man-cover corner. He has NFL-ready technique and confidence. He’s sticky in press, aggressive at the catch point, and shows the football IQ to thrive in both man-match and Cover 3 systems. His transition to LSU has elevated his stock into early-round territory. 17. Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (6’2”, 208) Simpson is a rhythm-based passer. He excels in timing systems that reward anticipation and accuracy. His compact release, processing speed, and poise under pressure give him early starter potential. Continued deep-ball refinement could elevate him into the top-15 mix. 18. Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson (5’11”, 180) Terrell is a twitchy, physical corner. He has sharp instincts and top-tier tackling for his size. His man-match and press technique are clean. His aggressiveness at the catch point gives him CB1 upside. Best fit: zone-match or press-quarters schemes emphasizing physicality. 19. Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (6’3”, 206) Moore brings natural touch, anticipation, and field vision to a modern pro-style offense. His 2025 breakout year highlighted improved mechanics and composure under pressure. While he must add consistency on deep throws, his rhythm and processing are already first-round quality. 20. Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon (6’3”, 250) Sadiq is a versatile tight end. He has elite explosiveness, functional strength, and YAC ability. He can line up in-line, in the slot, or as a boundary mismatch. His athletic profile fits perfectly in play-action-heavy or motion-based offenses built around hybrid tight ends. 21. Denzel Boston, WR, Washington (6’4”, 210) Boston is a prototypical boundary receiver. He has size, body control, and red-zone production. His strong hands and ability to adjust to off-target throws make him a reliable vertical and intermediate target. While not overly sudden, his high-point timing and physical play style give him WR2 upside in vertical or play-action offenses. 22. Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee (6’0”, 195) Hood is a confident, aggressive corner. He has fluid hips and top-tier awareness in both man and zone coverage. He plays bigger than his frame, using excellent route anticipation and physicality to disrupt receivers early. His recovery speed and timing at the catch point give him CB2 potential with CB1 traits if consistency improves. 23. Chris Bell, WR, Louisville (6’2”, 220) Bell is a power-built wideout. He blends vertical acceleration with physical toughness after the catch. His play style mirrors Deebo Samuel’s — a mix of strength, balance, and explosive YAC ability. He fits perfectly in play-action and West Coast systems built on crossers and schemed touches. 24. Cashius Howell, EDGE, Texas A&M (6’2”, 250) Howell is an explosive, undersized pass rusher. He has dynamic bend and burst off the edge. His speed-to-power conversion and relentless motor give him rotational value early. With added strength, he can develop into a disruptive 3-4 OLB or nickel pass-rush specialist. 25. Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah (6’5”, 295) Lomu is a technically refined tackle prospect. He has outstanding recovery balance and natural foot quickness. He thrives in zone-based run schemes where his mobility and leverage can be maximized. While his anchor strength needs improvement, his agility and feel in pass protection project long-term starting potential. 26. Christen Miller, IDL, Georgia (6’3”, 305) Miller is a powerful, ascending interior defender. He has the blend of length, motor, and quickness NFL teams covet. His ability to stack, shed, and reset the line of scrimmage makes him a scheme-versatile fit in 3- or 4-man fronts. He’s a breakout candidate with steady Day 2 value. 27. Matayo Uiagalelei, EDGE, Oregon (6’5”, 272) Uiagalelei is a fluid, long-limbed edge defender. He has excellent play recognition and closing speed. He wins with leverage, hand placement, and a controlled pass-rush plan. His hybrid build fits best as a 5-tech or 4i in multiple-front defenses that prioritize gap integrity and pressure flexibility. 28. Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech (6’1”, 230) Rodriguez is a high-IQ, instinctive linebacker. He plays with urgency and physicality. He thrives in zone-match systems that let him read and trigger downhill. His tackling consistency and blitz timing make him an immediate depth and special teams contributor with starter potential in 4-2-5 defenses. 29. Olaivavega Ioane, IOL, Penn State (6’4”, 330) Ioane is a physically dominant interior lineman. He has powerful hands and a thick lower base. He excels in downhill run schemes, consistently generating movement at the point of attack. With improved pad level and foot consistency, he can develop into a long-term starting guard or center. 30. T.J. Parker, EDGE, Clemson (6’3”, 265) Parker enters 2025 as one of the most productive returning edge defenders in college football. His heavy hands, leverage control, and finishing power make him a reliable three-down defensive end. He projects best in even fronts as a 4-3 end but offers enough versatility to kick inside on passing downs. 31. Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee (6’5”, 200) Brazzell is a long, smooth wideout. He has vertical burst and elite catch radius. His stride length and natural tracking ability make him a downfield weapon. His body control allows him to win in contested catch situations. Still developing as a route-runner, he projects as a high-upside X receiver with WR2 potential in vertical or RPO-based passing games. 32. C.J. Allen, LB, Georgia (6’1”, 235) Allen is an explosive, high-IQ linebacker. He has sideline-to-sideline range and strong diagnostic skills. A physical tackler with 4.5 speed, he thrives in zone-heavy systems that let him key, trigger, and attack downhill. His instincts and leadership give him three-down starter potential in modern 4-2-5 or 3-3-5 defenses. 33. Kayden McDonald, IDL, Ohio State (6’3”, 326) McDonald is a stout, two-gap nose tackle. He plays with heavy hands and excellent leverage. He excels at resetting the line of scrimmage and occupying space in the run game. He shows flashes of power-based pass rush from 0- to 3-tech alignments. He is an ideal fit in odd-front systems built around gap control and pocket disruption. 34. LT Overton, EDGE, Alabama (6’5”, 283) Overton is a rare size-speed edge defender. He can line up anywhere from 4i to 9-tech. His 2024 breakout at Alabama highlighted elite power and functional athleticism. He fits perfectly in multiple-front schemes that value hybrid alignment and inside-out versatility. 35. Jaishawn Barham, LB/EDGE, Michigan (6’4”, 248) Barham is a physically dominant hybrid defender. He can play off-ball or rush the edge. His explosiveness, striking power, and pursuit range give him three-down flexibility. If his full-time move to EDGE at Michigan sticks, he could emerge as one of the top pass rushers in the class. 36. Kevin Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M (5’11”, 187) Concepcion is a precise route-runner. He has sharp short-area quickness and elite feel for space. A technician who thrives in timing offenses, he projects best as a Z/slot hybrid in modern spread or West Coast schemes. His YAC ability and football intelligence make him a high-floor contributor with WR2 potential. 37. Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas (6’7”, 312) Goosby is a developmental tackle prospect. He has excellent length and strong lower-body control. His foot quickness and pass-set balance stand out, though his hand placement and anchor need refinement. He is a scheme-versatile lineman with starting upside once his technique stabilizes. 38. Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State (6’4”, 243) Styles is a prototype hybrid defender. He has rare athletic traits and versatility. The former safety brings coverage fluidity to the linebacker position. This allows him to match tight ends and track running backs in space. He is a perfect fit for multiple-front defenses that rely on disguise and flexibility. 39. A’Mauri Washington, IDL, Oregon (6’3”, 330) Washington is a powerful, space-eating interior defender. He can anchor a defensive front. His combination of strength, length, and short-area explosiveness makes him ideal for early-down work in gap-control systems. With improved pad level and pass-rush variety, he could become a dependable NFL starter. 40. Austin Barber, OT, Florida (6’8”, 320) Barber is an experienced, long-armed tackle. He has excellent foot quickness and poise in pass protection. His movement skills make him a natural fit in zone schemes. His improved anchor strength has elevated his all-around game. He projects as a plug-and-play swing tackle with starter-level ceiling. 41. Zion Young, EDGE, Missouri (6’5”, 262) Young is a long, explosive edge defender. He has excellent hand timing and linear burst. He wins with length, leverage, and discipline in the run game. He flashes closing speed and power on stunts and twists. He projects as a high-upside rotational rusher who fits best in 4-3 fronts with attacking principles. 42. R. Mason Thomas, EDGE, Oklahoma (6’2”, 250) Thomas is a twitchy, compact edge rusher. He has elite first-step quickness and natural bend. His ability to dip, flatten, and finish through contact gives him early pass-rush value. While undersized, his explosiveness and motor make him a strong fit as a 3-4 OLB or situational speed rusher in hybrid defenses. 43. Gennings Dunker, OT, Iowa (6’5”, 316) Dunker is a powerful, tone-setting lineman. He has a nasty finish and strong run-blocking fundamentals. His lack of lateral quickness limits his NFL projection to guard. However, his leverage, anchor strength, and competitive edge make him a plug-and-play interior starter. 44. Caleb Banks, IDL, Florida (6’6”, 325) Banks is one of the most physically unique interior defenders in the class. He boasts elite length, agility, and disruptive upside. His ability to rush from multiple alignments and generate pressure with power and quickness makes him a natural 3-tech fit in 4-3 fronts. With refinement in pad level and counters, he carries top-20 upside. 45. Quincy Rhodes Jr., EDGE, Arkansas (6’6”, 276) Rhodes is a raw but toolsy defender. He has ideal NFL measurables and power traits. He flashes dominance when converting speed to power and setting hard edges versus the run. With improved hand placement and leverage consistency, he could develop into a starting-caliber 4-3 end or hybrid 5-tech. 46. A.J. Harris, CB, Penn State (6’1”, 191) Harris is a long, confident corner. He has scheme versatility and elite recovery traits. He thrives in man-match and Cover 3 systems. He shows physicality at the line and excellent awareness in zone. With improved ball production, he projects as a plug-and-play boundary starter at the next level. 47. Caleb Tiernan, OT, Northwestern (6’7”, 325) Tiernan is a towering, smooth-footed tackle. He has impressive reach and balance for his size. He is patient in pass protection and effective on the move in zone run schemes. His pad level and displacement strength remain developmental areas, but he has the frame and agility of a long-term starter. 48. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo (6’2”, 202) McNeil-Warren is a rangy, instinctive safety. He has excellent closing speed and tackling discipline. He thrives as a single-high or deep-half defender. He reads the quarterback and triggers downhill with precision. His length and range make him a fit for zone-match or split-field schemes. 49. LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (6’3”, 240) Sellers offers rare dual-threat ability. He has a big arm and physical rushing style. His off-platform throws and improvisational creativity make him a dangerous playmaker in vertical or play-action offenses. Refinement in decision-making and timing will determine whether he reaches his top-tier ceiling. 50. Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State (6’0”, 185) Johnson is a fluid, competitive corner. He has smooth hips and natural mirror ability. He excels in off-man and quarters coverage. He shows consistent ball tracking and click-and-close quickness. His athletic profile and football instincts make him an intriguing developmental starter at the next level. 2026 NFL Draft Positional Rankings Top 5 Quarterbacks — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (6’5”, 225) Prototypical pocket passer with size, anticipation, and poise in pro-spread systems. 2) Ty Simpson, Alabama (6’2”, 208) Accurate rhythm thrower who thrives in timing and progression-based offenses. 3) Dante Moore, Oregon (6’3”, 206) Quick processor with natural touch and franchise-level upside in hybrid pro schemes. 4) LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (6’3”, 240) Big-armed dual-threat who can create off-script and attack vertically. 5) Jayden Maiava, USC (6’4”, 230) Toolsy, strong-arm passer built for vertical attacks with developmental starter traits. Top 5 Running Backs — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (6’0”, 210) Explosive two-phase weapon built for wide-zone and tempo offenses with home-run speed. 2) Justice Haynes, Michigan (5’11”, 210) Powerful one-cut runner with balance, burst, and three-down starter potential. 3) Jadarian Price, Notre Dame (5’11”, 210) Smooth, efficient runner with plus vision and underrated receiving value. 4) Jonah Coleman, Washington (5’9”, 229) Compact, physical tone-setter who thrives in gap and power run concepts. 5) Kaytron Allen, Penn State (5’11”, 220) Steady, downhill runner with strong contact balance and workhorse traits. Top 5 Wide Receivers — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State (6’1”, 195) Explosive field-stretcher with refined route running and top-tier WR1 traits in vertical and play-action systems. 2) Carnell Tate, Ohio State (6’3”, 191) Polished route technician with elite spatial awareness and reliable hands in timing-based offenses. 3) Makai Lemon, USC (5’11”, 195) Dynamic slot weapon with elite short-area quickness and route tempo; thrives in West Coast and RPO systems. 4) Denzel Boston, Washington (6’4”, 210) Prototypical X receiver with strong hands, body control, and red-zone dominance. 5) Chris Bell, Louisville (6’2”, 220) Physical, explosive YAC threat built for hybrid West Coast and play-action schemes. Top 5 Tight Ends — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon (6’3”, 250) Explosive, physical two-phase tight end with elite burst and true three-down versatility. 2) Michael Trigg, Baylor (6’4”, 240) Athletic flex target with soft hands and mismatch potential in spread or play-action systems. 3) Max Klare, Ohio State (6’4”, 240) Fluid mover with natural hands and seam-stretching ability; thrives in motion and spacing concepts. 4) Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt (6’4”, 225) Converted QB with top-tier athleticism and open-field explosiveness as a hybrid passing-game weapon. 5) Marlin Klein, Michigan (6’6”, 250) Tall, developmental inline prospect with strong blocking foundation and red-zone upside. Top 5 Offensive Tackles — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Spencer Fano, Utah (6’5”, 304) Technically refined tackle with elite run-blocking grades and day-one starter polish on either side. 2) Francis Mauigoa, Miami (6’6”, 315) Powerful, athletic right tackle with rare movement skills and All-Pro potential in any blocking scheme. 3) Kadyn Proctor, Alabama (6’7”, 369) Massive blindside protector with dominant strength and improving footwork in power/gap concepts. 4) Caleb Lomu, Utah (6’5”, 295) Smooth, flexible mover with quick feet and natural recovery ability in zone-based systems. 5) Trevor Goosby, Texas (6’7”, 312) Long, athletic pass protector who projects as a developmental left tackle with starter upside. Top 5 Interior Offensive Linemen — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State (6’4”, 330) Powerful, scheme-versatile guard with heavy hands and anchor strength for gap or inside zone systems. 2) Connor Lew, Auburn (6’3”, 300) Technically sound center-guard hybrid with high football IQ and consistent leverage control. 3) Logan Jones, Iowa (6’3”, 293) Athletic, experienced center who excels in wide-zone concepts and second-level blocking. 4) Cayden Green, Missouri (6’5”, 320) Strong, agile interior blocker with starter-level traits in gap-heavy and duo run schemes. 5) Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon (6’5”, 315) Explosive, physical guard with strong hands and functional athleticism for multiple blocking systems. Top 5 Interior Defensive Linemen — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Peter Woods, Clemson (6’3”, 315) Dominant interior disruptor with elite first-step quickness and scheme versatility as a 3-tech or 5-tech. 2) Caleb Banks, Florida (6’6”, 325) Massive, explosive defensive tackle with rare length and athleticism — a prototype penetrating 3-tech. 3) Christen Miller, Georgia (6’3”, 305) Powerful, technically refined interior lineman who wins with leverage, effort, and consistent gap integrity. 4) Kayden McDonald, Ohio State (6’3”, 326) Dense, physical run stuffer with violent hands and disruptive power at the point of attack. 5) A’Mauri Washington, Oregon (6’3”, 330) Heavy-handed interior anchor who excels as a two-gapping nose or early-down run defender. Top 5 Edge Defenders — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (6’3”, 275) Polished, high-motor pass rusher with elite hand usage and scheme versatility — a true every-down disruptor. 2) Keldric Faulk, Auburn (6’6”, 290) Powerful, inside-out edge with multi-front versatility who wins with leverage, length, and violent temperament. 3) David Bailey, Texas Tech (6’3”, 250) Explosive, bendy speed rusher with three-down upside — thrives as a 3-4 OLB or hybrid edge in attacking schemes. 4) Cashius Howell, Texas A&M (6’2”, 250) Twitchy, high-energy rusher who excels with speed-to-power and bend off the corner in 4-3 alignments. 5) Matayo Uiagalelei, Oregon (6’5”, 272) Long, athletic edge defender with strong anchor traits and inside-out flexibility for multiple front structures. Top 5 Cornerbacks — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Jermod McCoy, Tennessee (6’0”, 195) Elite man-cover specialist with explosive hips, top-tier ball skills, and CB1 upside pending full recovery from ACL injury. 2) Mansoor Delane, LSU (6’0”, 190) Physical, instinctive corner who thrives in off-man and zone-match coverage, with the range and toughness to fit multiple schemes. 3) Avieon Terrell, Clemson (5’11”, 180) Highly competitive, twitchy corner with sticky coverage ability and strong tackling traits — projects as a Day 1 starter in press or quarters systems. 4) A.J. Harris, Penn State (6’1”, 191) Long, intelligent defender with balanced man-zone skills and strong run support — a plug-and-play boundary corner at the next level. 5) Colton Hood, Tennessee (6’0”, 195) Athletic, physical outside corner with fluid transitions and high football IQ — excels in man-match coverage with disruptive instincts. Top 5 Safeties — 2026 NFL Draft 1) Caleb Downs, Ohio State (6’0”, 205) Elite, interchangeable safety with rare instincts and positional versatility — the prototype for split-safety or match-zone defenses. 2) Dillon Thieneman, Oregon (6’0”, 207) Smart, rangy single-high safety with elite instincts and leadership traits — thrives in aggressive, disguise-heavy systems. 3) Kamari Ramsey, USC (6’0”, 204) Versatile, instinctive defender who can rotate between deep, slot, and box roles — excels in match-zone or hybrid coverage schemes. 4) Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo (6’2”, 202) Long, fluid safety with downhill burst and range to impact both the run and pass game in multi-front defenses. 5) A.J. Haulcy, LSU (6’0”, 222) Physical, tone-setting enforcer with strong tackling and communication skills — ideal for hybrid box and Cover-3 alignments.
- 2024 NFL Draft: Measuring Quarterback Clutch Ability Using Points Earned Per Play on 3rd and 4th Down: J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye
Which of the top 2024 NFL Draft prospects is the most clutch in key moments? Among the many data points we measure to evaluate the quarterback position is their ability to operate in high-leverage situations. The top quarterbacks at any level of football, but most importantly in college football and the NFL, are those who can minimize mistakes, manage the game as needed, and activate their game-changing ability in key moments. The definition of a key moment can vary, and we can get extremely granular in the analysis if needed. However, for this circumstance, I chose 3rd down and obvious passing situations as one of the better ways to measure a quarterback's clutch ability. The rankings below use a measure referred to as the expected points model or the points earned model. What is the Points Earned Model? The Points Earned model is an analytical framework used to quantify a player's contribution to their team's scoring output, taking into account the context and impact of each play. It's derived from the Expected Points Added (EPA) concept, which measures how each play affects the team's scoring chances. The Points Earned model goes beyond traditional statistics by considering the value of each play within its game context, offering a nuanced view of a player's performance and impact. It's particularly insightful for quarterbacks, as it captures their contribution to the team's scoring potential, factoring in the plays that lead directly to points and those that significantly improve the team's scoring chances. How Does This Apply To The Analysis Below? Today, we compare the top 2024 NFL Draft Quarterback prospects from this past 2023 college football season on third down and obvious passing situations of 5 yards or more. These throws by the QBs must be thrown past the sticks, eliminating some of the after-the-catch ability of their wide receivers from the equation. The Key metrics we are going to use in this analysis include the following *(Combined 3rd/4th down throws past the sticks of 5 yards or more to go) Points Added Per Play Ranking (PAA Per Play Rank) *SIS Definition: Points Above Average per pass play. This metric measures a quarterback's effectiveness by comparing the points earned on each pass play to the league average. A higher value indicates a quarterback contributes more points than the average per play, highlighting their efficiency and effectiveness in critical situations. Positive Play% EPA Boom% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in an exceptionally successful play, defined by an EPA of at least +1. This indicates the quarterback's capability to create big, game-changing plays. A higher percentage represents a higher capability for making impactful plays. EPA Bust% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in a significant negative Expected Points Added (EPA), specifically less than -1. This metric identifies plays significantly decreasing a team's scoring opportunity or overall field position. A lower ranking (indicating fewer bust plays) is desirable, showing the quarterback's ability to avoid costly mistakes. The top QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft Ranked BY 2023 PAA Per Play *(Combined 3rd/4th down throws past the sticks of 5 yards or more to go) 1.) J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) PAA Per Play Rank: 1st nationally (1.06 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: McCarthy's efficiency is unparalleled with a 1.06 Points Above Average (PAA) per play, complemented by a leading Boom% rank (71.4%, 1st) and a remarkably low Bust% rank (20.0%, 4th), highlighting his precision and capacity for high-impact plays. This balance between high success in Boom% and minimizing failures in Bust% underscores his precision under pressure. Player Comparison Correlation: The comparison to Joe Burrow spotlights McCarthy’s ability to elevate his game under pressure, suggesting potential growth areas in play processing and decision-making to reach Burrow's level of NFL success. 2). Bo Nix (Oregon) PAA Per Play Rank: 3rd nationally (0.96 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Nix's play is characterized by a solid 0.96 Points Above Average (PAA) per play, a high Boom% rank (71.40%, 2nd), and a lower Bust% rank (19.0%, 3rd), demonstrating his capability to generate significant plays while efficiently avoiding negative outcomes. This proficiency in maximizing positive plays and mitigating risks highlights his suitability for dynamic offenses that leverage quarterback mobility and improvisational skills. Player Comparison Correlation: The parallel with Jalen Hurts accentuates Nix's potential. His precision and decision-making could elevate his performance, fostering a trajectory of development akin to Hurts. 3). Caleb Williams (USC) PAA Per Play Rank: 5th nationally (0.87 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Williams showcases a notable 0.87 Points Above Average (PAA) per play, with a Boom% rank (59.0%, 13th) that contrasts with a higher Bust% rank (25.6%, 10th). This highlights his dynamic dual-threat abilities and indicates room for improvement in areas such as trusting his pocket and taking what the defense gives him rather than always chasing explosive plays. Player Comparison Correlation: Williams' comparison to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers suggests his fit in schemes that prize mobility and playmaking, emphasizing that refining structured play could unlock his elite potential. 4). Jayden Daniels (LSU) PAA Per Play Rank: 23rd nationally (0.60 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Daniels' balance is evident with a 0.59 Points Above Average (PAA) per play. His moderate Boom% rank (52.9%, 27th) and Bust% rank (35.3%, 43rd) in key 3rd down and obvious passing situations are areas for improvement. This suggests that refining his decision-making could lead to more consistent high-impact plays. Player Comparison Correlation: Comparing Daniels to Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray underscores his potential in an offense that allows for his creative playmaking ability to flourish. He will need to improve as a passer in key 3rd down and obvious passing moments; he is a dynamic runner who can beat you in two ways, but leveraging his running ability to create more opportunities as a passer will elevate his game at the NFL level. 5). Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) PAA Per Play Rank: 24th nationally (0.59 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Rattler’s capability is marked by a 0.59 PAA per play, alongside a Boom% rank (46.3%, 66th) that is notably higher than his Bust% rank (41.5%, 85th), indicating a strong arm and creativity but also a need for better decision-making and consistency. This balance between creating impactful plays and the relatively higher occurrence of negative plays points to areas for growth in playmaking consistency. Player Comparison Correlation: Rattler's parallels with Jameis Winston and Jay Cutler suggest a trajectory towards becoming a resilient quarterback, focusing on improving decision-making to mitigate bust plays and enhance overall performance. 6). Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) PAA Per Play Rank: 68th nationally (0.345 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Penix demonstrates a classic pocket passer's profile with a blend of arm strength and accuracy, reflected in his Points Above Average (PAA) per play (0.345). Despite a moderate Boom% (48.0%, ranked 56th) and Bust% (34.0%, ranked 35th), Penix's tape shows a quarterback who can execute precise throws from the short to deep areas of the field. Ideal for a pro-style or West Coast offense, Penix's skill set aligns with a quarterback capable of managing the game effectively and making strong, accurate passes. Player Comparison Correlation: Penix's comparisons to Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones resonate with the idea that he could thrive in the right system by leveraging his quick decision-making and accuracy. These comparisons suggest Penix possesses the foundational skills to develop into a reliable starting quarterback, emphasizing the importance of a supportive team structure and an offensive scheme that aligns with his strengths. 7). Drake Maye (North Carolina) PAA Per Play Rank: 69th nationally (0.34 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Despite a lower Points Above Average (PAA) per play (0.34), Drake Maye's role in the Tar Heel offense was evident from his tape. However, in key 3rd down and obvious pass situations, his high Boom% (34.9%, ranked 124th) and high Bust% (41.9%, ranked 90th) indicate raw talent in improvisation but also highlight a necessity for improvement as a passer in high-leverage situations. His capability for making plays outside the structure is notable, but he needs to develop a greater trust in his pocket. His skill set is desirable in today's NFL, but he will need time to develop. Player Comparison Correlation: Maye's potential comparisons to Justin Herbert and Josh Allen highlight his ability to thrive in a system that values quarterbacks who can extend plays and make decisive throws. His comparisons make sense, as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert needed to improve consistency and decision-making when they entered the NFL. Advanced-Data Glossary PAA Per Play Definition: Points Above Average per pass play. This metric measures a quarterback's effectiveness by comparing the points earned on each pass play to the league average. A higher value indicates a quarterback contributes more points than the average per play, highlighting their efficiency and effectiveness in critical situations. Positive Play% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in a positive Expected Points Added (EPA). It reflects the quarterback's ability to consistently make plays that advance the team's position or score, with a higher percentage indicating more successful plays than total attempts. EPA Bust% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in a significant negative Expected Points Added (EPA), specifically less than -1. This metric identifies plays significantly decreasing a team's scoring opportunity or overall field position. A lower ranking (indicating fewer bust plays) is desirable, showing the quarterback's ability to avoid costly mistakes. Boom% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in an exceptionally successful play, defined by an EPA of at least +1. This indicates the quarterback's capability to create big, game-changing plays. A higher percentage represents a higher capability for making impactful plays. Total Points Earned in 2023 Definition: The total points a quarterback is responsible for through passing in high-leverage situations during the season. It aggregates the value of all positive plays made by the quarterback. A higher total indicates a greater contribution to the team's scoring efforts in critical situations. Total Pass Attempts in this situation Definition: The number of pass attempts made by the quarterback in high-leverage situations (3rd down and 5+ yards). This provides context for the sample size of the data, with more attempts offering a broader basis for evaluating the quarterback's performance.
- Ranking 2024 NFL Rookie QBs by scheme Fit and situation: Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix Lead the Way
The 2024 NFL Draft's first round was highlighted by a quarterback showcase, with six quarterbacks selected, setting a record for the highest number taken in the first round since the common draft era began in 1967. While Caleb Williams going No. 1 to the Chicago Bears was no surprise, there was some suspense about who would go second to the Washington Commanders. Washington chose LSU's Jayden Daniels, while North Carolina's Drake Maye went third to the New England Patriots. When the Atlanta Falcons selected Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8, it marked the first time in the common draft era that four quarterbacks were chosen within the first eight picks. Minnesota traded up to 10th overall with the New York Jets to draft J.J. McCarthy, and the Broncos took Bo Nix 12th overall. In this analysis, I am going to rank and grade each of the 2024 NFL Draft quarterbacks based on their scheme fit and surrounding personnel. I will also provide some 2024 yards and touchdown projections for each QB. Each player drafted is in a unique situation. The Bears went out of their way to surround Caleb Williams with outstanding talent, while the Minnesota Vikings were already in a good place when they drafted J.J. McCarthy. However, a team like the Patriots has question marks about their skill players, and Drake Maye still needs time to develop. The reality is that this is not a one-size-fits-all situation for every player. A few of these players will struggle in one way or another, but it is always a good exercise to identify the players who land in the best spots while also recognizing the players who landed in the not-so-great spots. Coaching Scheme Fit Grade This grade evaluates how well a player's skills and attributes align with the offensive or defensive system they are entering in the NFL. It considers how their play style, experience, and strengths match the strategies and preferences of the coaching staff. A: Excellent fit. The player's abilities align perfectly with the team's schemes and coaching strategies. B: Good fit. The player has most of the skills needed to succeed, with minor adjustments or development needed. C: Average fit. The player fits the system in general but may face significant challenges or require substantial development. D: Poor fit. There are notable mismatches between the player's style and the team's schemes that might hinder their success. F: Very poor fit. The player's skills and the team's strategies are fundamentally misaligned, posing serious challenges for effective integration. Surrounding Cast Grade This grade assesses the quality and compatibility of the teammates surrounding the player, including the offensive line for a quarterback or the defensive line for a linebacker, as well as key skill position players. A: Excellent support. The player has a strong, talented group of teammates that enhance their ability to perform and adapt. B: Good support. The supporting cast is competent, providing the player with a solid foundation to succeed. C: Average support. The team provides basic support, but improvements could significantly enhance the player’s performance. D: Poor support. The supporting cast may hinder the player's ability to perform well due to lack of talent or poor fit. F: Very poor support. The player is surrounded by teammates who are significantly below average, likely affecting their development and success. These grades help in understanding the potential for a player to succeed in their new NFL environment by analyzing how well they fit into their team's system and the quality of the support they receive. Bonus Fantasy Football Points Projections The last part is a bonus for fantasy football readers. I added a projected high-low fantasy points projection using 4 points per TD pass and -2 per interception format for each of the quarterbacks in the analysis. Rookie QB Scheme Fit and Situational Rankings 1). Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears Height: 6'1" | Weight: 214 lbs Projections: 3500-4000 passing yards, 25-30 passing TDs, 15-20 interceptions, 300-400 rushing yards, 3-5 rushing TDs Fantasy Projection High Projection : 320 Fantasy Points Low Projection : 248 Fantasy Points Overview: Caleb Williams was the expected No. 1 overall pick, celebrated for his elite arm talent and mobility. His ability to make off-schedule throws and extend plays has made his transition to the NFL highly anticipated. Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: A Williams demonstrates exceptional improvisational skills and an ability to dissect defenses from the pocket. His adeptness at evading pass rushers and making accurate throws on the run aligns perfectly with Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's system, which favors quick passes, play-action, and deep balls. Supporting Cast: Grade: A With targets like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen, along with tight end Cole Kmet, Williams is well-equipped to thrive. His rushing ability, highlighted by 27 touchdowns over three seasons in college, adds a dynamic component to the Bears' offense. Year One Starter?: Yes. Williams has been designated the starting quarterback following the trade of Justin Fields to Pittsburgh. 2). J.J. McCarthy - Minnesota Vikings Height: 6'3" | Weight: 214 lbs Projections: 3,000-3500 passing yards, 20-25 passing TDs, 14-19 interceptions, 250-300 rushing yards, 2-4 rushing TDs. Fantasy Projection High Projection : 285.0 Fantasy Points Low Projection : 214.0 Fantasy Points Overview: J.J. McCarthy, chosen tenth by the Minnesota Vikings, brings a record of 27-1 as a college starter. His ability to execute tight-window throws and make plays under pressure makes him a valuable addition to the Vikings. Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: A McCarthy's efficiency, his clutch ability in key situations, and his proficiency in executing a similar style of offense at Michigan are well-matched with head coach Kevin O'Connell’s offensive strategies, which emphasize a balanced attack with dynamic playmaking. His ability to extend plays and execute on designed runs fits seamlessly into the Vikings' scheme. Supporting Cast: Grade: A Surrounded by playmakers like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and tight end T.J. Hockenson, McCarthy is poised to succeed. The offensive line, highly ranked in both pass protection and run blocking in 2023, according to PFF, will support his transition to the NFL. Year One Starter: McCarthy is not expected to start immediately with Sam Darnold on the roster, providing him time to develop under the guidance of new QB coach Josh McCown. 3). Michael Penix Jr. - Atlanta Falcons Height: 6'3" | Weight: 218 lbs Projections: 500-1000 passing yards, 5-10 passing TDs, 2-5 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing TDs Fantasy Projection High Projection : 74.0 Fantasy Points Low Projection : 29.0 Fantasy Points Overview: After revitalizing his career at Washington, Michael Penix Jr. was selected eighth overall by the Atlanta Falcons. Known for his deep accuracy and quick decision-making, Penix is a playmaker and a leader poised to be the Falcons QB of the future. Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: A Penix is renowned for his arm strength and ability to navigate the pocket. His deep-ball accuracy and quick reads are ideally suited for a hybrid West Coast spread style of offense. The good news for Penix is that new Falcons OC Zac Robinson is a Sean McVay disciple who will likely deploy a similar style of offense to that of McVay, which focuses on the run and play-action pass games from various formations. The use of presnap motion and scheming guys open could be a staple in Atlanta for years to come. Supporting Cast: Grade: A Penix will benefit from a strong supporting cast, including dynamic receivers like Darnell Mooney and Drake London, and a tight end in Kyle Pitts with elite potential. Add in a three-down RB with elite pass-catching ability in Bijan Robinson with an offensive line that ranked 4th in pass protection last season; Penix is in a solid spot to develop. Year One Starter?: Unlikely right away. Kirk Cousins is expected to remain the starter for the next few years, but Penix provides a solid backup option and potential future starter as he adapts to the NFL. 4). Bo Nix - Denver Broncos Height: 6'2" | Weight: 214 lbs Projections: 3,000-3500 passing yards, 15-20 passing TDs, 15-20 interceptions, 200-400 rushing yards, 1-4 rushing TD Fantasy Projection High Projection : 287.0 Fantasy Points Low Projection : 209.0 Fantasy Points Overview: Bo Nix, drafted twelfth by the Denver Broncos, has evolved into a sound decision-maker with extensive experience from his time at Auburn and Oregon. His quick release and the ability to make plays on the run are what set him apart. He is also a good decision-maker and game manager. Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: A Nix's style aligns well with head coach Sean Payton’s system, which focuses on timing, rhythm, and tempo. His wealth of collegiate experience and ability to execute a detailed-oriented playbook make him a good fit for the Broncos’ offensive strategy. Supporting Cast: Grade: B While the Broncos' supporting cast, including receivers like Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and tight end Greg Dulcich, offers reliability and playmaking ability, the offensive line's effectiveness will be critical to Nix’s success. The line is expected to be solid, though the center position may require attention. Year One Starter?: It depends on Payton's strategy and evaluation during training camp. Given Nix's extensive college experience and Payton's coaching style, he may see significant playing time early in his rookie year. 5). Jayden Daniels - Washington Commanders Height: 6'4" | Weight: 210 lbs Projections: 3,500-4000 passing yards, 15-20 passing TDs, 15-20 interceptions, 500-700 rushing yards, 5-8 rushing TDs Fantasy Projection High Projection : 348.0 Fantasy Points Low Projection : 261.0 Fantasy Points Overview: Jayden Daniels selected second overall by the Washington Commanders, brings a dynamic dual-threat capability to the team. His collegiate success suggests a smooth transition to the professional level. Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: B Daniels excels at getting the ball out quickly and with precision when he likes the pre-snap look. His play style, combining quick decision-making with mobility, fits well into Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's scheme, which leverages a QB's ability to escape pressure and extend plays. The core of his offense is the Air Raid. However, at times, it can be very vanilla, and that is why I am not completely sold on the fit. I know that people like to compare Jayden Daniels to Kyler Murray, and they instantly think this is a great match, but how did that work out in Arizona? I have always viewed Kingsbury's offenses in Arizona as stagnant, without a lot of motion and varying formational use. He did start to diversify these aspects as time went on, and his time at USC with Lincoln Riley could also improve his creativity. I am in a wait-and-see mindset, but I gave it a solid B overall. Supporting Cast: Grade: B While Daniels has elite targets like Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, the Commanders' offensive line, which allowed 65 sacks last season, remains a concern and could limit his effectiveness unless improvements are made. Year One Starter?: Yes. With a new owner, general manager, and coach, the Commanders are poised to start Daniels immediately, looking to rebuild and capitalize on his talents. 6). Drake Maye - New England Patriots Height: 6'4" | Weight: 220 lbs Projections: 2500-3000 passing yards, 16-20 passing TDs, 13-18 interceptions, 300-500 rushing yards, 2-5 rushing TDs Fantasy Projection High Projection : 281.0 Fantasy Points Low Projection : 207.0 Fantasy Points Overview: Drake Maye, chosen third by the New England Patriots, is recognized for his strong arm and mobility. His proficiency in making off-platform throws and extending plays under pressure positions him as a formidable quarterback prospect. Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: C Maye has a good pocket presence and the ability to keep plays alive or pick up yards with his legs. Offensive Coordinator Alex Van Pelt will be tasked with building an offense that focuses on Maye's core strengths early on while he develops and improves his mechanics. The Patriots will likely lean on the run game a lot if Drake Maye is in the lineup as a rookie, and that will allow them to set up play-action opportunities. Van Pelt was not the primary playcaller in Cleveland; he was tasked with game planning and play design, so there are a lot of unknowns about Van Pelt and his ability to call plays. What we do know is that he is a true quarterback coach who has worked with Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, and, most recently, Deshaun Watson. Supporting Cast: Grade: C The supporting cast, including receivers like Kendrick Bourne, Juju Smith-Schuster, and K.J. Osborn, are not considered elite. Still, the offensive line, ranked 29th in pass protection last year, may hinder his ability to perform consistently, but the run blocking ranked at the top of the NFL and could be how they set things up offensively in 2024. The bottom line is that this is the toughest spot for any of the rookie quarterbacks to have landed, and the Patriots have a lot of work to do to get this offense in a place that can support a young quarterback. Year One Starter?: Not initially. The Patriots have brought in Jacoby Brissett to mentor Maye, allowing him time to develop without the immediate pressure of starting.
- 2026 NFL Draft: Early Team Needs for All 32 Teams
The 2025 NFL season is entering its final stretch, and as we move into the closing months and toward the playoffs, it’s time to take a full inventory of all 32 franchises. With projected 2026 free agents coming into focus and roster weaknesses becoming clearer each week, this early evaluation outlines every team’s biggest needs heading into the 2026 NFL Draft. This analysis highlights each club’s top positional priorities, a concise breakdown of why those needs exist, and the key pending free agents who will shape the offseason. 2026 NFL Draft: League-Wide Team Needs Summary Across the league, edge rusher and cornerback stand out as the most common early 2026 NFL Draft needs, each appearing on 19 team lists (11.9%). Wide receiver ranks just behind, with 18 teams (11.3%) identifying the need for more explosive perimeter talent or a reliable complement to their established WR1. Quarterback appears on six team lists, a smaller share overall, but one with outsized influence on draft strategy. Even limited QB demand typically dictates early first-round movement, and several franchises are poised to re-enter the market for long-term stability at the position. Jump To NFL Team: ARI , ATL , BAL , BUF , CAR , CHI , CIN , CLE , DAL , DEN , DET , GB , HOU , IND , JAX , KC , LV , LAC , LAR , MIA , MIN , NE , NO , NYG , NYJ , PHI , PIT , SF , SEA , TB , TEN , WSH Arizona Cardinals Top Needs: OT, WR, RB, QB, IOL Summary: Arizona enters the offseason with major uncertainty on the right side of its offensive line. Both Jonah Williams and Will Hernandez are set to hit free agency, and Williams’ season-ending shoulder surgery only adds to the instability at right tackle. Jalen Thompson’s expiring contract creates another key void at safety. With no long-term answer behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and a backfield still lacking durable depth, the Cardinals’ early 2026 priorities revolve around bolstering protection for Kyler Murray and shoring up the defensive back end. Atlanta Falcons Top Needs: TE, DT, QB, WR, CB Summary: Atlanta must strengthen the interior of its defensive line after ranking near the bottom of the league against the run, with major inconsistencies showing up on early downs. Kyle Pitts Sr. is entering the final year of his rookie deal without long-term clarity, elevating tight end to a premium need. Kirk Cousins’ future remains uncertain beyond this season, keeping quarterback firmly in play. With limited perimeter weapons behind Drake London and a secondary that could use another reliable boundary option, Atlanta’s roster still requires multiple upgrades. Baltimore Ravens Top Needs: Edge, TE, IOL, DL, CB Summary: Baltimore faces significant turnover across the secondary and edge positions, with Alohi Gilman, Ar’Darius Washington, Kyle Van Noy, and David Ojabo all headed toward free agency. The interior offensive line has struggled, placing continued pressure on Lamar Jackson and limiting offensive consistency. Tyler Linderbaum is a priority extension, and losing him would create another major need at center. Cornerback depth and a more consistent perimeter receiver remain long-term roster concerns as the Ravens look to reinforce a veteran core. Buffalo Bills Top Needs: LB, Edge, CB, IOL, Safety Summary: Buffalo enters the offseason with both Joey Bosa and AJ Epenesa on expiring deals, creating immediate pressure to replenish the edge room. The ongoing search for a true X receiver continues, as the offense still lacks a reliable, high-end perimeter threat for Josh Allen. Interior OL stability is also at risk with both Connor McGovern and David Edwards approaching free agency. With secondary depth thinning and limited backfield explosiveness behind James Cook, the Bills’ roster demands multiple upgrades across premium positions. Carolina Panthers Top Needs: IOL, WR, TE, DT, Edge Summary: Carolina faces a full evaluation of its interior offensive line with Cade Mays, Austin Corbett, and Brady Christensen all in contract years. Behind Tetairoa McMillan, the receiver room still lacks dependable production, with Xavier Legette falling short of first-round expectations. Rico Dowdle’s breakout season creates a contract challenge for a team already financially committed to Chuba Hubbard. Defensively, the Panthers need more consistency both inside and off the edge to complement their developing young core. Chicago Bears Top Needs: Safety, Edge, OT, DL, CB Summary: Chicago could lose its entire safety group—Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard III, and Jonathan Owens—all entering free agency. The defensive interior is aging, with Grady Jarrett nearing 33, while Andrew Billings and Chris Williams are also on expiring contracts. Addressing long-term OT stability remains a priority, and the offense still lacks a proven boundary playmaker opposite Rome Odunze. Re-signing or replacing Byard will be one of the most important decisions of the Bears’ offseason. Cincinnati Bengals Top Needs: IOL, Edge, OT, CB, WR Summary: Cincinnati once again enters the offseason needing major help along the offensive line, ranking 29th in pass-block win rate and struggling to keep the pocket stable. On defense, the pass rush could undergo a complete reset with Trey Hendrickson, Joseph Ossai, and Cam Sample all entering free agency. Hendrickson’s injury and uncertain availability further complicate the decision to retain him. With the defense sitting at the bottom of the league and the offensive line still an issue, the Bengals face foundational decisions at premium positions. Cleveland Browns Top Needs: QB, OL, WR, DT, RB Summary: Cleveland’s early 2026 priorities are centered on stabilizing the quarterback position and rebuilding an offensive line that could lose multiple starters. Dillon Gabriel’s struggles place added urgency on finding a long-term answer under center. Meanwhile, Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, Wyatt Teller, and Jack Conklin, all approaching free agency, leave the Browns at risk of a full-scale offensive line overhaul. With limited continuity and a young quarterback still developing, Cleveland enters the offseason at an inflection point. Dallas Cowboys Top Needs: Edge, Safety, CB, IOL, WR Summary: Dallas faces major turnover on the edge with Dante Fowler Jr., Jadeveon Clowney, and Sam Williams all headed for free agency, leaving the pass rush thin and inconsistent. Safety has been an issue throughout the season, and Donovan Wilson’s expiring contract only increases the urgency to upgrade the back end. Offensively, George Pickens’ breakout performance complicates long-term planning as the Cowboys weigh another high-value contract alongside CeeDee Lamb’s. With questions across multiple defensive positions, the roster needs a recalibration entering 2026. Denver Broncos Top Needs: LB, TE, CB, OT, WR Summary: Denver enters the offseason with linebacker as a clear priority, with both Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad approaching free agency and Singleton nearing age 33. Tight end also becomes a focus, as Evan Engram, Adam Trautman, and Nate Adkins all approach expiring contracts in 2026. With several other starters headed for unrestricted free agency and limited cap flexibility, the Broncos face a challenging balancing act as they attempt to maintain their defensive identity and support the continued development of their offense. Detroit Lions Top Needs: Edge, DT, CB, WR, LB Summary: Detroit urgently needs reinforcements along the defensive front after ranking last in pass-rush win rate. Aidan Hutchinson continues to anchor the unit, but the lack of consistent pressure elsewhere has been a season-long issue. The interior defensive line is also set for turnover with DJ Reader, Roy Lopez, and Levi Onwuzurike all entering free agency. Adding both a disruptive interior presence and a long-term edge partner remains critical to elevating Detroit’s defense. Green Bay Packers Top Needs: LB, CB, WR, OT, IDL Summary: Green Bay’s top priorities land at linebacker and cornerback after declining Quay Walker’s fifth-year option and seeing inconsistent play from Nate Hobbs in his first season with the team. The defense needs more stability at the second level and a reliable boundary corner to match Joe Barry’s system. With the offense growing around Jordan Love, the Packers still lack a complete perimeter threat group and must address depth concerns across multiple position groups. Houston Texans Top Needs: DT, IOL, OT, RB, CB Summary: Houston faces significant interior defensive line turnover with Sheldon Rankins, Tim Settle Jr., and Folorunso Fatukasi approaching free agency. The offensive line remains a major concern after ranking 28th in pass-block win rate and last in run-block win rate, highlighting the need for improved protection and interior strength. Nick Chubb’s unclear long-term future adds another layer of uncertainty to the backfield. Overall, trench play on both sides of the ball will define the Texans’ 2026 draft approach. Indianapolis Colts Top Needs: Edge, RT, CB, WR, DT Summary: Indianapolis enters the offseason needing reinforcements on the edge, ranking 29th in pass-rush win rate with Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, and Tyquan Lewis all nearing free agency. Right tackle also becomes a priority with Braden Smith set to hit the market at age 30. The Colts signaled confidence in their current quarterback plan after trading two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner, but the roster still requires upgrades in the trenches to support a playoff-caliber core. Jacksonville Jaguars Top Needs: CB, WR, RB, DT, Edge Summary: Jacksonville faces major roster decisions at both cornerback and wide receiver, with Montaric Brown and Greg Newsome II entering free agency and nearly the entire WR room—outside Brian Thomas Jr.—set to expire. The team must also determine Travis Hunter’s long-term role as a two-way player. Travis Etienne Jr.’s fifth-year option adds further uncertainty to the backfield. With key perimeter roles in flux, the Jaguars’ offseason will revolve around restocking coverage talent and securing weapons for Trevor Lawrence. Kansas City Chiefs Top Needs: TE, RB, OT, WR, CB Summary: Kansas City’s early needs center on tight end and running back as Travis Kelce approaches potential retirement and Noah Gray struggles to claim a larger role. The backfield remains unsettled with Isiah Pacheco battling durability issues and both Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell on expiring deals. The defense could also lose starting corner Jaylen Watson as the team prioritizes a future extension for Trent McDuffie. For the first time in years, the Chiefs must address multiple offensive skill positions to stabilize long-term planning. Las Vegas Raiders Top Needs: QB, WR, CB, OT, DT Summary: The Raiders enter the offseason with clear needs at quarterback and wide receiver as Geno Smith’s play declines at age 35 and the young receiving corps has yet to meet expectations. Rookies Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton Jr. have shown flashes but not enough to stabilize the position long term. With no clear direction under center and limited proven production at receiver, Las Vegas is positioned to aggressively pursue offensive playmakers as they reshape the roster. Los Angeles Chargers Top Needs: IOL, IDL, CB, WR, LB Summary: The Chargers must rebuild the interior of both lines, even with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt returning from injury. The offensive line ranks near the bottom of the league in pass-block win rate, and multiple interior defenders — including Teair Tart and Da’Shawn Hand — are set to hit free agency. The long-term future of Khalil Mack also adds uncertainty to the front seven. Shoring up trench play on both sides of the ball will be essential as Los Angeles looks to support a healthy roster in 2026. Los Angeles Rams Top Needs: OT, Safety, CB, Edge, WR Summary: Safety and offensive tackle stand out as the Rams’ early priorities, with Kam Curl and Quentin Lake both approaching free agency and long-time right tackle Rob Havenstein entering the end of his career. Depth concerns persist across the secondary and tackle positions, and Los Angeles may need multiple additions to stabilize both units. With significant cap space available in 2026, this offseason offers a rare opportunity for the Rams to reinforce foundational roster spots. Miami Dolphins Top Needs: CB, G, OT, WR, DT Summary: Miami’s pass defense has struggled all season, ranking 29th in DVOA, and both starting corners — Jack Jones and Rasul Douglas — are entering the final year of their deals. Right guard remains a major issue as Cole Strange continues to grade near the bottom of the league in both run- and pass-block win rate. With multiple expiring contracts in the secondary and ongoing inconsistency up front, the Dolphins may undergo substantial restructuring on the defensive perimeter and interior offensive line. Minnesota Vikings Top Needs: Safety, Slot WR, CB, IOL, RB Summary: Safety and slot receiver headline Minnesota’s early needs as Harrison Smith approaches potential retirement and both Jalen Nailor and Adam Thielen enter free agency. The Vikings lack a clear long-term slot option to complement Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Questions remain across the secondary and interior offensive line as Minnesota prepares for an offseason that may usher in significant transition on both sides of the ball. New England Patriots Top Needs: Edge, Safety, CB, WR, OT Summary: New England needs reinforcements on the edge and at safety after ranking 23rd in pass-rush win rate and leaning heavily on K’Lavon Chaisson, who is playing on a one-year deal. Depth at safety is also in question, especially for the three-safety packages the Patriots frequently deploy. With major contract extensions looming for cornerstone players in the coming seasons, the Patriots must balance short-term defensive needs with long-term cap planning. New Orleans Saints Top Needs: Edge, WR, CB, DT, OT Summary: New Orleans needs immediate help off the edge after ranking 27th in pass-rush win rate and with Cameron Jordan nearing retirement. Offensively, Chris Olave lacks a true running mate for 2026 after the departures of Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks, and the team can’t rely solely on Devaughn Vele’s development. With recent trends showing the Saints’ reluctance to invest heavily in defensive backs, cornerback depth and long-term roster stability remain ongoing concerns as the secondary undergoes another transition. New York Giants Top Needs: LB, G, OT, WR, CB Summary: Linebacker and guard stand out as early needs for the Giants as both Micah McFadden and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles enter free agency, leaving the middle of the defense thin. Greg Van Roten’s expiring contract at age 36 adds urgency to rebuild the interior offensive line. While Wan’Dale Robinson has emerged as a productive slot option, his long-term valuation becomes more complicated with Malik Nabers’ eventual extension approaching. New York faces another offseason of reshaping foundational pieces on both sides of the ball. New York Jets Top Needs: QB, IOL, RB, WR, LB Summary: Quarterback and interior offensive line headline the Jets’ offseason priorities as Justin Fields’ struggles continue and Tyrod Taylor approaches free agency at age 37. The interior OL remains one of the league’s weakest units, ranking 30th in pass-block win rate with John Simpson and Alijah Vera-Tucker both on expiring deals. Breece Hall’s upcoming contract negotiations will further shape roster flexibility. With instability at QB and inconsistent trench play, the Jets enter 2026 needing major upgrades across the offense. Philadelphia Eagles Top Needs: TE, CB, WR, Edge, LB Summary: Tight end and cornerback headline Philadelphia’s early needs as Dallas Goedert approaches the final year of his contract and the Eagles continue searching for stability at the No. 2 outside corner spot. Depth at tight end will thin quickly with Grant Calcaterra and Kylen Granson entering free agency. With Jaelan Phillips emerging as a key defensive addition and major extensions looming elsewhere, the Eagles must balance long-term cap planning with immediate roster upgrades. Pittsburgh Steelers Top Needs: QB, WR, CB, OT, IOL Summary: Quarterback and wide receiver shape the Steelers’ early priorities as Aaron Rodgers approaches a possible retirement and the team evaluates its long-term successor plans. The lack of consistent production behind DK Metcalf remains a concern, with Calvin Austin III headed for free agency. Injuries and uncertainty under center have slowed Pittsburgh’s offensive growth, making stability at QB and perimeter playmaking central to their 2026 outlook. San Francisco 49ers Top Needs: WR, DT, CB, RB, LB Summary: Wide receiver and defensive tackle are major needs for San Francisco as Brandon Aiyuk’s durability questions persist and both Kendrick Bourne and Jauan Jennings near free agency. The interior defensive front is also set for turnover with multiple rotational linemen on expiring deals and the run defense ranking outside the top 20. With key playmakers in flux, the 49ers must reinforce depth at premium positions to sustain their competitive window. Seattle Seahawks Top Needs: Edge, DB, C, LB, WR Summary: Seattle faces a complete reset across the secondary, with nearly every defensive back outside Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori entering free agency. The need for a stabilizing presence at cornerback is clear. Center remains another long-standing issue, as Jalen Sundell has struggled in both pass- and run-block win rate. With several young starters potentially not in the long-term plan, the Seahawks enter 2026 needing foundational upgrades in coverage and interior blocking. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Top Needs: Edge, CB, WR, TE, DL Summary: Cornerback and edge rusher stand out as Tampa Bay’s early needs, with Jamel Dean approaching free agency at age 30 and the team relying on a one-year deal from Haason Reddick. Mike Evans’ uncertain future following a major injury adds pressure to maintain offensive continuity. Tampa Bay must prepare for significant roster turnover while continuing to build around a veteran core that remains competitive. Tennessee Titans Top Needs: WR, OT, CB, LB, Edge Summary: Tennessee’s early 2026 priorities center on wide receiver and cornerback as the roster continues its rebuild. While Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike offer promise, the Titans still lack a true WR1-caliber playmaker—especially with Calvin Ridley grading near the bottom of ESPN’s receiver metrics. Cornerback is also an urgent need, even before factoring in the expiring contracts of Jalyn Armour-Davis and Darrell Baker Jr. With limited star power on the perimeter and a young quarterback developing, Tennessee must inject high-end talent on both sides of the ball. Washington Commanders Top Needs: Edge, LB, WR, CB, DT Summary: Linebacker and edge rusher headline Washington’s early needs, with Bobby Wagner approaching age 36 and several rotational pass rushers—including Von Miller and Deatrich Wise Jr.—set to hit free agency in 2026. Depth at both positions is thin, and the defense lacks long-term foundational pieces at the second level. Offensively, Deebo Samuel has been the team’s most reliable weapon amid widespread injuries, but his contract situation adds another layer of uncertainty. Washington enters the offseason needing an infusion of defensive speed and edge production to stabilize a roster undergoing transition.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Week 13: Andrei Iosivas, Darren Waller & Chris Rodriguez Jr. Lead Must-Add Players
The Final Push: Week 13 Waiver Wire Overview With the fantasy playoffs just two weeks away, Week 13 is all about tightening roster depth and targeting players whose usage and opportunity are trending up. Whether you’re replacing injured starters or stashing potential breakout players for the stretch run, this week’s waiver pool has impact names across every position — including a pair of ascending rookies and one veteran tight end returning just in time for the playoff push. Quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars (29%) Lawrence continues to produce despite an injury-depleted receiving corps, posting at least 16 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. Over that span, he’s averaged 17.7 FPPG — 14th among quarterbacks — with a 6.9 YPA and a 4.8% TD rate. With Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter nearing returns, Lawrence’s efficiency could spike at the perfect time. He’s a fringe QB1 rest-of-season with matchups against TEN, IND (x2), and NYJ. Tyler Shough – New Orleans Saints (7%) Shough’s fantasy arrow is quietly pointing up. He’s thrown for 240+ yards in back-to-back games and led the Saints in rushing in Week 12 (22 yards). With Alvin Kamara sidelined and Miami on deck (7th-most FPPG allowed to QBs), Shough offers sneaky Superflex value as a dual-threat streamer. Running Backs Chris Rodriguez Jr. – Washington Commanders (9%) Rodriguez has quietly taken command of Washington’s backfield, logging 11 carries per game over his last three while averaging 5.3 YPC and 9.9 fantasy points per game in PPR formats. His physicality between the tackles and growing role near the goal line have solidified him as the lead option over Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Per PFF, Rodriguez ranks top-15 among RBs in yards after contact per attempt (3.6), and Washington’s upcoming matchups — Giants, Cowboys, Eagles — are among the five softest against running backs during the fantasy playoffs. He’s the perfect late-season pickup who could deliver RB2-level volume when it matters most. Devin Neal – New Orleans Saints (2%) With Kamara nursing a sprained MCL, Neal’s Week 12 performance (11.1 PPR points on 12 touches) put him on the radar as a potential full-time starter. His passing-down usage — five receptions for 43 yards — gives him a PPR-friendly floor heading into a matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks bottom-10 in RB receiving yards allowed. Tyler Allgeier – Atlanta Falcons (32%) Allgeier remains a dependable touchdown-dependent Flex in positive game scripts. His 7 rushing TDs and 42% red-zone carry share keep him viable whenever Atlanta controls tempo. Wide Receivers Andrei Iosivas – Cincinnati Bengals (11%) Iosivas stepped into a full-time role with Ja’Marr Chase suspended and Tee Higgins sidelined, running a route on nearly 90% of dropbacks and commanding a 17% target share in Week 12. He converted that usage into four receptions for 61 yards against a strong Patriots secondary. Even with Chase’s return, Higgins remains in concussion protocol, and Joe Flacco’s aggressive downfield tendencies favor Iosivas’ vertical skill set. His 14.8 aDOT ranks among the highest for Bengals receivers, and he’s already seeing red-zone work (two end-zone targets in Week 12). He’s a viable WR4/Flex add in 12-team formats with upside for more if injuries persist. Luther Burden III – Chicago Bears (7%) Burden continues to earn more snaps (50%+ in Week 12) and looks poised for a bigger role in Ben Johnson’s offense. His blend of YAC and physicality make him a sneaky late-season stash behind Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore. Chimere Dike – Tennessee Titans (12%) With Calvin Ridley out for the season, Dike has become Tennessee’s most consistent pass-catcher. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 13.1 PPR points and two scores, adding special teams value with two punt return TDs. Tight Ends Darren Waller – Miami Dolphins (17%) Waller’s return from IR couldn’t come at a better time. In his last three full games before injury, he averaged 15.2 PPR points and ranked top-5 in yards per route run among tight ends (1.89). Miami’s system has funneled red-zone targets to the TE position — 24% of Tua Tagovailoa’s throws inside the 10 — and Waller’s next two matchups (PIT, CIN) rank bottom-six in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. If he’s healthy, Waller is a plug-and-play TE1 who could be a true league-winner down the stretch. Colston Loveland – Chicago Bears (35%) Loveland remains a focal point of Chicago’s passing game with at least 40 yards in four straight contests and a 16% route-target rate. Over his last six games, he’s averaged 12.2 PPR points — eighth among tight ends. Even in a rotation with Cole Kmet, Loveland’s athleticism and route efficiency give him top-10 upside weekly. Brenton Strange – Jacksonville Jaguars (11%) Strange returned from injury and immediately led Jacksonville in targets (5), receptions (5), and yards (93). His 71% snap share indicates trust from Trevor Lawrence and the coaching staff. He’s a priority add in deeper leagues, with TE1 streaming potential. Final Takeaway Week 13 is less about chasing short-term production and more about playoff-proofing your roster. Chris Rodriguez Jr. offers real RB stability, Andrei Iosivas could emerge as Cincinnati’s late-season deep threat, and Darren Waller — if healthy — has top-five TE potential when it counts most. These are the type of midseason moves that separate playoff contenders from champions.
- TreVeyon Henderson Rookie Evaluation: How His Traits Are Translating to the NFL
TreVeyon Henderson’s Rookie Breakout Is No Fluke Few rookies have elevated their stock more rapidly than TreVeyon Henderson. After stepping into the primary role in New England due to injuries in the backfield, the former Ohio State star has delivered consecutive statement performances that showcase the same explosive traits highlighted in our Football Scout 365 predraft scouting report. His burst, one-cut acceleration, and ability to flip field position instantly have translated without hesitation. Comparing Predraft Traits to Current NFL Reality Our evaluation projected Henderson as a high-end zone runner with true home-run ability — elite burst, lateral agility, and three-down potential — balanced by concerns around durability and contact balance. Ten games into his rookie season, the film and data strongly support those strengths. He’s generating chunk plays at an elite rate, finishing through contact better than expected, and providing meaningful value as a pass catcher in an offense built around timing and efficiency. Key Data Points Nearly 500 rushing yards, with over 400 yards coming after contact Leads all rookie RBs in PFF Breakaway Yards (185) Second-most targets among rookie running backs, confirming three-down usage Five touchdowns in his last two games, including a 147-yard day vs. Tampa Back-to-back multi-TD performances, showcasing true drive-ending ability RB1 Trajectory in New England The recent surge — five touchdowns in two weeks and two dominant, explosive outings — reinforces Henderson’s long-term projection as a feature back. He is performing like the exact prospect we graded: a dynamic playmaker with the ability to carry volume or create instant offense in space. If this role continues, Henderson could cement himself as the Patriots’ next long-term RB1, combining Dion Lewis-like versatility with even greater explosive upside.
- Omar Cooper Jr. NFL Draft Scouting Report
2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr. Omar Cooper Jr. is a dynamic, compact-built receiver with the explosiveness and toughness to threaten defenses at every level. At 6’0”, 201 pounds, the Indiana wideout combines vertical burst with exceptional contact balance, giving him true three-level playmaking ability. A former 4-star recruit, Cooper has emerged as one of the most electric receivers in the Big Ten, capable of flipping the field in an instant. Film Summary Cooper’s tape displays a vertical and RAC-oriented receiver who can win both over the top and underneath. His release quickness and acceleration off the line allow him to separate early on deep concepts, while his short-area agility lets him create after the catch. Once the ball is in his hands, Cooper runs with running back–like balance, consistently breaking arm tackles and generating chunk plays. He shows natural hands and high-level ball tracking, particularly on deep throws, where he adjusts fluidly to off-target passes. Cooper plays with competitive toughness and demonstrates a willingness to block on the perimeter, though he still relies more on raw athleticism than fully developed route technique. Continued refinement in pacing and route detail will be key to unlocking his full potential. Ideal Scheme Fit Fits best in spread or motion-based offenses that emphasize crossers, RPO concepts, and quick-strike vertical routes — similar to systems used by Miami, San Francisco, and Atlanta. His ability to align outside or in the slot gives offensive coordinators flexibility to scheme him into space and exploit mismatches. Key Strengths Explosive vertical speed: Separates quickly and maintains top-end acceleration through routes. Run-after-catch dynamism: Compact frame and balance allow him to run through contact and create big plays. Alignment versatility: Comfortable operating inside, outside, or in motion. Physical toughness: Willing blocker and fearless competitor across the middle. Developmental Areas Consistency and focus: Must sustain effort and discipline across all reps. Route refinement: Needs sharper stems and improved deception against man coverage. Production consistency: Must translate athletic flashes into weekly dominance against top competition. Grade and Projection Summary Football Scout 365 Grade: High-End Starter Potential Explosive field-stretcher with RAC skill set and inside-outside versatility. Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Can develop into a featured WR2 or high-volume starter in an explosive NFL offense. NFL Draft Projection: Round 3 – Round 4 Pro Comparison: Brandon Aiyuk / Rashod Bateman / Deebo Samuel (lite) — mirrors Aiyuk’s RAC burst, Bateman’s route foundation, and Samuel’s physical versatility. Final Analysis Omar Cooper Jr. projects as a high-upside, dual-threat receiver who can attack vertically or turn short throws into chunk plays. His burst, balance, and toughness give him instant value as a motion weapon or slot-YAC specialist, while his vertical acceleration stretches defenses horizontally and vertically. With improved consistency and route polish, Cooper has the makeup of a dynamic WR2 who can thrive in modern, motion-heavy NFL systems.













