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When analyzing fantasy football, a tier-based analysis provides fantasy managers with a clearer understanding of the differences between each group of players and how to value them for the upcoming season. Let's dive into the quarterback rankings and tiers for the 2024 fantasy football season, specifically in a 6-Point Per Passing TD model.
Tier System for QBs in a 6-Point Per Passing TD Model:
Tier 1 QB: 22.0 points per game or higher (Elite performers)
Tier 2 QB: 19.0 to 21.9 points per game (Strong starters)
Tier 3 QB: 17.0 to 18.9 points per game (Reliable starters)
Tier 4 QB: 15.0 to 16.9 points per game (Serviceable starters)
Tier 5 QB: 14.9 points per game or fewer (Backup options)
2024 Fantasy Football QB Projections
The 2024 projected QB1 is Josh Allen, followed by Patrick Mahomes. Tier one has 5 QBs in our preseason fantasy projections, while tier two is loaded, starting with C.J. Stroud, who is just a shade under the tier one level and could absolutely elevate into that range in 2024. Additional tier two names that could make the jump into tier one include Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, and Kyler Murray, who are all in tier one level situations but are projected just a few ticks below the tier one threshold.
As far as tier three, Anthony Richardson leads the way, and his ceiling could elevate him into tier two if he can stay healthy in 2024. Geno Smith and Justin Herbert are also in a range of potential tier-two status. We have two rookies in tier three, both with huge upside and could elevate into the tier two level.
As far as tiers four and five, tier four is led by Aaron Rodgers coming off his Achilles injury, and tier five is led by Bryce Young and the rest of the 2024 rookie class.
Tier 1 QB: 22.0 points per game or higher (Elite performers)
These quarterbacks are expected to deliver top-tier performances consistently, making them highly valuable. Examples include Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes, who often score above this threshold due to their combination of passing and rushing abilities.
Josh Allen (BUF): 24.4 points per game
Patrick Mahomes (KC): 23.3 points per game
Jalen Hurts (PHI): 23.1 points per game
Lamar Jackson (BLT): 22.3 points per game
Dak Prescott (DAL): 22.1 points per game
Tier 2 QB: 19.0 to 21.9 points per game (Strong starters)
This tier includes reliable starting QBs who may not reach the elite status but still provide strong and consistent fantasy points. Examples are Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, who regularly put up solid numbers but might lack the rushing upside or consistent elite output of Tier 1 QBs.
C.J. Stroud (HST): 21.8 points per game
Joe Burrow (CIN): 21.0 points per game
Trevor Lawrence (JAX): 20.7 points per game
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): 20.6 points per game
Kyler Murray (ARZ): 20.5 points per game
Jared Goff (DET): 19.8 points per game
Brock Purdy (SF): 19.7 points per game
Jordan Love (GB): 19.7 points per game
Baker Mayfield (TB): 19.4 points per game
Daniel Jones (NYG): 19.2 points per game
Derek Carr (NO): 19.1 points per game
Matthew Stafford (LA): 19.0 points per game
Tier 3 QB: 17.0 to 18.9 points per game (Reliable starters)
These QBs are good starters in most leagues, offering reliable performance. They might have occasional spikes in points but generally hover around the middle range. Examples include Jared Goff and Geno Smith, who can be relied upon for steady performance.
Anthony Richardson (IND): 18.8 points per game
Geno Smith (SEA): 18.6 points per game
Justin Herbert (LAC): 18.5 points per game
Caleb Williams (CHI): 17.9 points per game
Jayden Daniels (WAS): 17.7 points per game
Kirk Cousins (ATL): 17.5 points per game
Will Levis (TEN): 17.4 points per game
Tier 4 QB: 15.0 to 16.9 points per game (Serviceable starters)
Quarterbacks in this tier are serviceable starters or high-end backups. They provide decent points but lack the upside of higher-tier QBs. They have the potential for good games but also come with more inconsistency.
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ): 16.9 points per game
Deshaun Watson (CLV): 16.8 points per game
Russell Wilson (PIT): 16.8 points per game
Tier 5 QB: 14.9 points per game or fewer (Backup options)
These QBs are typically backup options or low-end starters in deeper leagues. They might be starting QBs in the NFL but are not expected to perform at a high level consistently in fantasy. They may have potential but are more likely to have lower fantasy output.
Bryce Young (CAR): 14.9 points per game
J.J. McCarthy (MIN): 14.5 points per game
Gardner Minshew (LV): 14.3 points per game
Bo Nix (DEN): 13.7 points per game
Drake Maye (NE): 13.5 points per game