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2024 NFL Draft: USC QB Caleb Williams By The Numbers Analysis

As we move into the 2024 NFL Draft player analysis before the 2023 college football season, we will provide in-depth scouting reports, film reviews, and more, covering the top players expected to declare for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Each year the evaluation process starts with preliminary evaluations. Some are based on limited film reviews in the early stages; for others, we already have a full four games evaluated or more, and the final grade depends on the prospect's final season of film in college.

Today, we look closer at the story the data can tell us for USC QB Caleb Williams, who is a projected 1st-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

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Scouting Caleb Williams By The Numbers

When Under Pressure

In 2022, Caleb Williams was under pressure on 32% of his dropbacks (10th).

Keeping A Play Alive

Caleb Williams excelled at buying time to keep plays alive or pick up a first down with his legs in 2022. Among all QB's with 100+ pressured dropbacks, Williams extended plays out to 3.05 sec on average (5th). Williams ranked 8th nationally in total 1st downs when under pressure with 75.

On Target Throws In A Clean Or Dirty Pocket

Caleb Williams maintained a solid on-target throw rate even while under pressure in 2022. He was on target on 66% of his throws. He was also accurate in a clean pocket, completing 79% of his passes (27th nationally).

Big Time Throws

Caleb Williams ranked 4th nationally among FBS QB's with 32 big-time throws in 2022 when pressured or not pressured. These throws are considered tight window throws. He did have 13 big-time throws vs. pressure, which is 1 less than Drake Maye. Both are top 5 at making big-time throws under pressure.

Bad Decisions

Caleb Williams does need to clean up the decision-making. He was late or threw the football into traffic 11 times in 2022.

Three Level Accuracy

We discuss the three-level accuracy all the time and how it translates to the NFL, Short, intermediate, and deep throws.

Short (0-9yds depth)

Caleb Williams could improve his short accuracy. He completed 85% of his throws at this level of the field. 32% of his total throws were attempted at this level of the field, which is a lower number in an offense you might expect to attempt more throws at or near the line of scrimmage. He was top 20 in yards per attempt at this level, which is the number that matters most. If these throws are on time and on target at a 3% better rate, the yards per attempt could increase, which is why this data matters.

Intermediate Throws (10-19yds depth)

23% of Caleb William's total throws were at this throw depth. Intermediate throws are a good measure that translates to the NFL level. Being accurate and consistent at this level is essential. By comparison, Williams and Drake Maye both display excellent accuracy at this level most of the time. Williams on target throw rate is 65%, while Maye is on target 66% of the time. Both ranked among the top 20 in college football in on-target throw rate. Both grade high in this category as well.

Deep (20+ yds depth)

In 2022, Caleb Williams on target throw rate of 48% ranked 14th in FBS among QB's with at least 50 attempts. By comparison, Drake Maye is 4th in on-target throw rate (53%).

As a Runner

Caleb Williams finished 2022 with 58 rush attempts and 624 sack-adjusted rush yards. Williams scored 10 rushing TD's. He was elusive in space, forcing 36 total missed tackles, and he was tough when needed picking up 359 of his total rush yards after contact. Williams picked up 42 total first downs using his legs.

As a Passer

In 2022, Caleb Williams took care of the football posting an elite 42/5 TD/INT ratio. He threw 4539 yards (ranking in the top 5) while completing 67% of his throws.

*Some data is comprised using three different resources and combined within the analysis. We use PFF, SIS, and our internal data.


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