Arch Manning NFL Draft Scouting Report: Elite Tools, Unfinished Product

Arch Manning enters the 2025 college football season as one of the most scrutinized quarterback prospects in the country—and for good reason. The former No. 1 overall recruit and heir to the Manning football legacy, Arch combines elite arm talent, natural athleticism, and growing poise as a field general.

After a developmental freshman year, Manning flashed high-end traits in 2024 that justify his projection as a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The tools are there—but like most young QBs, refinement and consistency are the next steps.

The Measurables

Height: 6’4” | Weight: 220 lbs

Class: Redshirt Sophomore

Strengths

• Natural Arm Talent & Mechanics – Manning releases the ball effortlessly with consistent velocity and touch. He excels in tight-window throws, especially off-platform and outside the pocket.

• Athleticism & Off-Script Creation – Unlike previous Mannings, Arch brings legitimate mobility to the table. He’s dangerous on bootlegs, play-action rollouts, and read-option keepers, adding another layer of stress for defenses.

• Accuracy When Clean – In 2024, Manning completed 73% of his passes and averaged over 11 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. His footwork and balance in structure were a major year-over-year improvement.

• Pedigree & Poise – His family legacy gives him an innate understanding of the game. He processes pressure well when kept clean and displays calm mechanics in big spots, ranking among the SEC’s best in third-and-long situations.

Areas for Improvement

• Handling Pressure & Blitz Recognition – Manning’s completion rate dropped significantly under duress in 2024. His On-Target Throw % fell to 39% when pressured—indicating a need to improve pre-snap reads and post-snap adjustments.

• Mental Processing vs. Exotic Looks – Defenses that disguise coverage or simulate pressure have given him trouble. Improving anticipatory throws and adjusting protections will be critical to his development in 2025.

• Live Game Experience – While his tools are evident, Manning still lacks a full season’s worth of starts. More reps in high-leverage situations will determine if he’s ready to declare early.

Ideal NFL Scheme Fit

Manning projects best in a modern pro-style offense that leverages boot-action, layered route concepts, and rhythm passing. Think Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers or Sean McVay’s Rams, where smart decision-making and second-reaction ability are maximized.

NFL Comparison

• Ceiling: Justin Herbert – Big-bodied athlete with off-platform accuracy, arm talent, and mobility to thrive in structured and chaotic situations alike.

• Floor: Sam Darnold – Toolsy quarterback with flashes of brilliance but prone to struggle against pressure without improved anticipation and protection adjustments.

• Stylistic Comp: Joe Burrow (Early LSU) – Confident, accurate, mobile, and comfortable in structure, but still learning how to win post-snap at an elite level.

2026 NFL Draft Outlook

Arch Manning currently grades as a High-End Starter Potential prospect on the Football Scout 365 scale. With improved blitz identification, live-game processing, and a full starting season in 2025, he could ascend to QB1 status and become a surefire top-5 selection. The pedigree and tools are undeniable—2025 will determine if the polish catches up.