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What Does ESPN FPI schedule strength and projected ranking predict and do we agree?
What I like about the ESPN FPI is that it gives us a baseline measure of how many games a team should win based on analytics. The reason I love ESPN FPI is that it gives me something to compare my analysis too. Some of what they project I may not agree with, but the additional data points help give me a baseline measure of anticipated results. I also use this to identify the strength of schedule.
There are a few teams above that I think will have more wins than the FPI projects, such as West Virginia who is predicted to win six games, Michigan who is projected to win 8, and UCLA expected 5.5 wins. I think all three of these teams will have two, or more wins than anticipated in 2018. I am going to dig a little deeper into each teams schedule and put out another analysis before the season starts that discusses schedule strength and where each team in our BGA analysis should finish in 2018.