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We have compiled every NFL team's personnel group usage since the 2018 season. What is the significance of analyzing a team's personnel group usage, and how can you use the data to your advantage? Click to Go To Personnel Group Analysis Dashboard The Role of Personnel Groups Varies By The Team At All Levels Personnel is dictated mainly by roster construction, and sometimes circumstances can dictate how a team utilizes particular personnel. For example, some run-heavy teams like to use multiple TE's more than others and might roster more TE's than other teams. Teams that use 12 personnel (1 back, two TE's) might be more run-heavy, but that doesn't always have to be the case. Some run-heavy teams use only one TE more often and are in an 11 Personnel (1 back, 1 TE) consistently. How Personnel Groups Can Be Used Strategically Teams at all levels of football will use personnel groups to dictate the type of personnel groups an oppossing team defense will trot out on the field. For example, a run-heavy offense might use 12 personnel at a 30% rate, and when in 12 personnel, they run the football 70% of the time on first down. Teams can use the personnel to dictate the defense's personnel and then break their tendency in a key moment. For example, let's say team X is up by 3 with 12:00 mins to go in the 4th QTR, and on 1st and ten, team Y, the defense has been loading the box matching your personnel with their bigger personnel throughout the game, and they have been giving you man to man on the outside. Now might be that critical moment to take that shot vs. man to man. Now, this is just one example of the strategic use of different personnel groups. The Most Common Personnel Groups Used Today 11 personnel remains the dominant personnel group in the NFL. From 2018-2019, 11 personnel (one back, one TE) usage in the NFL did drop by 5% YOY, and from 2019 to 2020, 11 personnel held steady at 60%. How and Why 11 Personnel Became Dominant? The evolution of 3 WR sets in football is where the transition from two TE run-heavy looks (12 personnel) and 2 Backs, one TE looks have evolved (21 personnel). In 2008, NFL teams used a higher rate of 12 and 21 personnel combined with 11 personnel still being the dominant grouping at 34%, 12 personnel, and 21 personnel accounted for 43%, and 22 personnel (two backs, two TE's) accounted for 10% of the average league total for personnel group usage in 2008. Let's fast forward to 2020; 22 personnel is nonexistent except for a few teams who employ a fullback and multiple TE's, and even those teams run a low rate of 22 and 21 personnel. Personnel groups have evolved to a higher rate of 11 personnel through the years because of the emergence of highly skilled slot receivers and RB's who excel both as pass catchers and pass blockers out of the backfield. In addition, some highly skilled RB's are even more versatile and can line up in the slot or flex out wide, which allows an OC to keep them on the field consistently in key passing situations as a receiver. The emergence of more athletic TE's has also elevated the use of 11 personnel. Instead of trotting out an additional slot receiver, teams can keep their TE's on the field and move them all around. TE's are no longer inline consistently and counted on as blockers; they are used in the slot, out wide, and the backfield. Top Five Teams By Personnel Usage We examined the top five NFL teams by the top three personnel groups used in the NFL. The top three, as mentioned above, are 11 personnel, 12 personnel, and 21 personnel. Top Five NFL Teams Who Utilized 11 Personnel (One Back, One TE) in 2020 NFL Average- 60% Cincinnati Bengals 11 Personnel Usage- 76% The Bengals 11 personnel usage is warranted, and the expectation is that it will continue in 2021. By drafting Ja'Marr Chase, the Bengals now can slide Tyer Boyd back inside to the slot, with Tee Higgins playing opposite of Chase on the outside. In addition, they possess versatility at RB with Joe Mixon, who can be an every-down back and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. They can use a higher rate of 12 personnel with the emergence of TE Drew Sample and the player he replaced due to injury TE C.J. Uzomah. Pittsburgh Steelers 11 Personnel Usage- 75% The Steelers are a team we expect might drop in year over year 11 personnel usage. Still, they are so loaded at WR making any assertion other than them maintaining a 75% 11 Personnel usage might be invalid. The one argument is that they drafted TE Pat Friermuth from Penn State, who will team up with Eric Ebron at TE in 2021. Kansas City Chiefs 11 Personnel Usage- 73% The Chiefs are an air raid offense built around having a versatile 11 personnel. The RB's in this offense must be good receivers, and the TE must line up all over the formation and use his athleticism for mismatch advantages. One of those boxes has been checked with Travis Kelce at TE, while the RB is in question. CEH is a good receiver and an adequate runner. As a result, the Chiefs should maintain a top-five status in 11 personnel usage in 2021 using three wide receivers, one TE, and one back. Team to Watch Jacksonville Jaguars 11 Personnel Usage- 73% The Jags will be interesting to watch in 2021. Urban Meyer is testing the idea of using more 21 personnel based on his statement on Ettiene working as a WR. Of course, Etienne is a RB, and to believe anything otherwise is silly, but Urban Meyer envisions his role in the offense for 2021 to be Percy Harvin-esque. This means you have another mismatch style back in Etienne paired with James Robinson on the field all at once. We already know Robinson has strong receiver ability, and Etienne, coming out of Clemson, showed us his ability as a high-level receiver. The Jags are an exciting team to keep an eye on regarding how they might change the game in personnel usage. If the Urban Meyer two RB thought process works, other teams will, of course, try to mimic what the Jags do. New York Jets 11 Personnel Usage- 72% Top Five Teams Who Utilized 12 (One Back, Two TE's) Personnel In 2020 NFL Average- 20% Tennessee Titans 12 Personnel Usage- 35% Philadelphia Eagles 12 Personnel Usage- 35% Team To Watch Arizona Cardinals 12 Personnel Usage- 30% The Cardinals used nearly four times the amount of 10 personnel (one back, zero TE's) in 2019 than the next team. In 2020, they flipped their personnel usage to a more NFL-centric approach using more 11 and 12 personnel. Kingsbury learned that there is a big difference between the college and NFL game in that 10 Personnel cannot be a base level group like it is in the college game. As a result, the Cardinals surrendered 50 sacks in 2019 (bottom third). 21 of the 50 sacks surrendered in 2019 happened when they were in 10 personnel. They improved in 2020, allowing only 29 total sacks, partly related to decreased ten personnel usage. Los Angeles Rams 12 Personnel Usage- 29% Houston Texans 12 Personnel Usage- 28% Top Five NFL Teams Who Used 21 (Two Backs, One TE) Personnel In 2020 NFL Average- 8% New England Patriots 21 Personnel Usage- 37% Team To Watch San Francisco 49ers 21 Personnel Usage- 33% The 49ers are one of a handful of teams who use a traditional FB. The 49ers are run-heavy, and they rely on the use of constraint-style plays that can get LB's in a bind. The TE in this offense has to be a good blocker and a pass-catcher, and they have that part covered. The 49ers might be even more 21 personnel heavy, with an athlete potentially starting at the QB position in Trey Lance. With or without Lance starting in 2021, don't expect much to change in their offense or personnel usage style. Minnesota Vikings 21 Personnel Usage- 26% Baltimore Ravens 21 Personnel Usage- 18% Green Bay Packers 21 Personnel Usage- 14%

Over the last five weeks, we have covered the top offenses and defenses using different categories. For offense, we graded and ranked passing offense, run offense, receivers, run blocking, and pass blocking. On the defensive side of the football, we graded and ranked the top pass-rush, run stop, and pass coverage defenses. The results of each, when combined, provide us with a preseason situational analysis grade for both the offense and defense of every NFL team that we use to determine NFL power rankings, the strength of schedule for all teams, and projected win totals. About The Analysis Today's analysis wraps up our total offensive team grades combining passing offense, run offense, run blocking, and pass blocking team grades. The average for each team determines how a team will be ranked heading into the 2021 NFL season. The Grade Scale The team grades use the individual player grades to get an average for each category. For offense, it's passing, the run offense, receivers, run blocking, and pass blocking. As mentioned above, we use pass rush, run stop, and pass coverage for the defense. The scale is a 1 to 10 rating scale, with one being the lowest and ten being the highest. On average, based on preliminary analysis, a grade of 6 to 6.99 is a playoff-caliber position group, or if the entire offensive grade is in the area of 6 to 6.99, that will represent a playoff-caliber offense. A seven or higher average represents a Super Bowl Caliber offense, defense, or position group. You can find all of our preseason NFL team grades by visiting our beta version of the Team and Player Grade Dashboard. Click Here To View Player And Team Grade Dashboard Top Ten Projected NFL Offenses Heading Into 2021 Today's analysis covers the top ten NFL defenses using the grades from the five offensive categories (passing offense, run offense, receivers, run blocking, and pass blocking). Tampa Bay Buccaneers TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 1st PASS OFF: 1st RUN OFF: 9th REC: 1st RUN BLOCK: *1st (Tied w/49ers) PASS BLOCK: 7th (Tied w/Steelers, Jags, Rams) Cleveland Browns TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 2nd PASS OFF: 12th RUN OFF: 2nd REC: 10th RUN BLOCK: 2nd PASS BLOCK: 1st Dallas Cowboys TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 3rd PASS OFF: 7th RUN OFF: 8th REC: 2nd RUN BLOCK: 13th PASS BLOCK: 5th Baltimore Ravens TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 4th PASS OFF: 17th RUN OFF: 3rd REC: 15th RUN BLOCK: *6th (Tied w/Cards, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers) PASS BLOCK: 6th Kansas City Chiefs TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 5th PASS OFF: 2nd RUN OFF: 18th REC: 4th RUN BLOCK: *6th (Tied w/Cards, Bills, Ravens, Chargers) PASS BLOCK: 14th Arizona Cardinals TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 6th PASS OFF: 15th RUN OFF: 15th REC: 18th RUN BLOCK: *6th (Tied w/Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers) PASS BLOCK: 2nd Los Angeles Rams TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 7th PASS OFF: 10th RUN OFF: 12th REC: 12th RUN BLOCK: 4th PASS BLOCK: 7th (Tied w/Steelers, Jags, Bucs) Green Bay Packers TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 8th PASS OFF: 3rd (*W/Rodgers) RUN OFF: 6th REC: 16th RUN BLOCK: 16th PASS BLOCK: 4th Buffalo Bills TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 9th PASS OFF: 4th RUN OFF: 21st REC: 8th RUN BLOCK: *6th (Tied w/Ravens, Cards, Chiefs, Chargers) PASS BLOCK: 20th Tennessee Titans TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 10th PASS OFF: 6th RUN OFF: 1st REC: 3rd RUN BLOCK: 11th PASS BLOCK: 30th

Over the last five weeks, we have covered the top offenses and defenses using different categories. For offense, we graded and ranked passing offense, run offense, run blocking, and pass blocking. On the defensive side of the football, we graded and ranked the top pass-rush, run stop, and pass coverage defenses. The results of each, when combined, provide us with a preseason situational analysis grade for both the offense and defense of every NFL team that we use to determine NFL power rankings, the strength of schedule for all teams, and projected win totals. Check Out Our Previous Analysis Top Five Pass Rush Defense Top Five Run Stop Defense Top Five Pass Coverage Defense About The Analysis Today's analysis wraps up our total defensive team grades combining pass rush, run stop, and pass coverage team grades. The average for each team determines how a team will be ranked heading into the 2021 NFL season. The Grade Scale The team grades use the individual player grades to get an average for each category. For offense, it's passing, run offense, run blocking, and pass blocking. As mentioned above, we use pass rush, run stop, and pass coverage for the defense. The scale is a 1 to 10 rating scale, with one being the lowest and ten being the highest. On average, based on preliminary analysis, a grade of 6 to 6.99 is a playoff-caliber position group, or if the entire offensive grade is in the area of 6 to 6.99, that will represent a playoff-caliber offense. A seven or higher average represents a Super Bowl Caliber offense, defense, or position group. You can find all of our preseason NFL team grades by visiting our beta version of the Team and Player Grade Dashboard. Click Here To View Player And Team Grade Dashboard Top Ten Projected NFL Defenses Heading Into 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 1ST RUN D 6TH PASS COV 2ND PASS RUSH 1ST Los Angeles Rams TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 2ND RUN D: 2ND PASS COV: 8TH PASS RUSH: 4TH Pittsburgh Steelers TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 3RD RUN D: 3RD PASS COV: 11TH PASS RUSH: 3RD Washington Football Team TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 4TH RUN D: 5TH PASS COV 21 PASS RUSH: 2ND New Orleans Saints TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 5TH RUN D: 1ST PASS COV: 24TH PASS RUSH: 8TH Cleveland Browns TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 6TH RUN D: 10TH PASS COV: 4TH PASS RUSH: 7TH Denver Broncos TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 7TH RUN D: 4TH PASS COV: 1ST PASS RUSH: 13TH San Francisco 49ers TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 8TH RUN D: 7TH PASS COV: 14TH PASS RUSH: 9TH Baltimore Ravens TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 9TH RUN D: 3RD PASS COV: 3RD PASS RUSH: 14TH New York Jets TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 10TH RUN D: 11TH PASS COV: 30TH PASS RUSH: 5TH

The third and final phase of our defensive team grades is passing coverage defense. Team coverage grades/rankings are often measured by third-level defenders' performance (corners, safeties). For us, we like to analyze the second and third levels (LB's, CB's, S's) of the defense when determining a pass coverage grade. Metrics Used to Analyze Pass Coverage. There are multiple ways you can measure the success of pass coverage. You have the traditional way (INT's, PBU's, TD's), and yards per game allowed. These numbers are essential, but the devil is in the details. What we do is we examine the league's top defenses vs. the pass in terms of yards allowed; we then look at other factors such as yards per target allowed and completion rate by a defender in coverage. Another key metric to consider is passer rate when targeted. How Pass Coverage Affects the Sum Of The Whole The best defenses have identifiable traits. Some defenses possess a great pass rush defense; others are very good vs. the run, some are great in coverage. Bringing all three of these phases together is the goal of every defensive coordinator. Each category that we analyze coordinates with the other in some capacity. For Example, a team with a great pass rush and not-so-great defenders in coverage on the back end are only as good as the pass rush. If you pass rush or aggressive blitz philosophy doesn't get to the QB, especially in the NFL, you are toast. Pass coverage is often only as good as the pass rush, and there are times where a secondary can mask a poor pass rush by playing great coverage for long enough that the pressure gets home. So the main point, pass coverage, and pass rush are joined at the hip, while run defense sets up your pass rush and pass coverage to be successful on late downs by keeping offenses behind schedule. The Projected Top Five Pass Coverage Defenses For 2021 (1st) Denver Broncos Team Grade: 7.00 The Broncos were a 5-11 team in the AFC West a season ago. Inconsistency on both sides of the football including their secondary led the Broncos into the offseason looking to fill voids with high-level players. In 2021, Denver's secondary is full of high-level talent with Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby, and top-10 pick Patrick Surtain II, all of which will compete, get onto, or stay on the field. Add in Bryce Callahan, who will play in the nickel, and you have the deepest group of corners in the NFL. We haven't even mentioned the two safeties who are arguably going to be the best tandem in the NFL in Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson. Ronald Darby is the lowest graded player in pass coverage, and he is still a high-level player. The LB's Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson are also good pass coverage defenders, which further strengthens the league's best pass coverage defense in the NFL (on paper) heading into 2021. Denver By The Numbers The Broncos pass defense ranked in the middle third of the NFL in total yards allowed in 2020; they ranked in the middle of the league in total first downs allowed in coverage. The Broncos were strong in not allowing teams to score on them through the air in 2020. Where they needed to improve in 2020 is giving up explosive plays. The Broncos ranked 4th from last, giving up 59 pass plays of more than 20 yards in 2020. On third down, the Broncos did not do a great job though it was adequate of preventing opponents from converting through the air (40.5%), ranking in the league's middle third. Denver's ability to apply pressure and hurry a QB moving them off their spot in 2020 was a strength that the new secondary will strengthen in 2021. (2nd) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Grade: 6.86 The Super Bowl Champs return everyone from last year's defense. That's all nothing more to see here. But seriously, how? Tom Brady is the architect or the glue that bound this roster in 2020, and more than that, he changed the culture and the mindset of a franchise marred by mediocrity. So why is Brady being discussed in the analysis of defensive coverage? Because Tom Brady completed the sum of the whole in Tampa. His presence and his ability elevated the entire team on both sides of the football. The year prior, Jameis Winston famously (no pun) threw thirty interceptions which is not suitable for a defense to be successful. Defense is predicated on getting stops and creating field position advantages for an offense. When the offense turns over the football at a high rate, you put pressure on your defense, giving the opponent short fields and extra opportunities and further tiring the defense with added possessions. The entire Bucs secondary is graded as average to star on the rise, with Jamel Dean leading the way at CB. At safety, the Bucs have two outstanding players, including second-year all-rookie player Antoine Winfield. LB Lavonte David possesses the highest pass cover grade of all players on the Bucs. The one soft spot is Sean Murphy-Bunting, who plays the nickel and can play outside, and even Bunting has an average to above-average grade potential in 2021. Tampa By the Numbers A significant measure to examine year over year from 2019 to 2020 is the average field position defense. In 2019, the Bucs opponents started possessions at their 31-yard line on average vs. 2020, where the opponents began at their own 28. The Bucs ranked third-worst in the NFL in 2019 in average field position defense; they improved to 13th best. The Bucs defense also improved in score percentage on a per drive basis from 39.4% of their opponents, ending in points (Bottom third) to 33.7% (top third). The Bucs blitzed their opponents at the 4th highest rate (39%) in 2020, yet they maintained a top third-lowest percentage of being out of position to make a tackle. The Buc's aggressiveness didn't lead them to give up an excessive number of explosive plays. Their aggressiveness and high usage of man coverage would lead some to believe they would have, but they were in the top third in explosive plays allowed in 2020. The Bucs were near the top of the NFL in 2020 in total sacks. (3rd) Cleveland Browns Team Grade: 6.75 There is a wild possibility that we see a Super of Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay. The Browns are arguably the most complete team outside of Tampa Bay heading into 2021. The edition of John Johnson and Ronnie Harrison at safety gives the Browns one of the best safety tandems in the league. Add in the potential of Grant Delpit, and the Browns have the potential to be the deepest and most talented safety unit in the NFL. John Johnson brings his near-elite coverage skills with him from the Rams, and Ronnie Harrison is on the cusp of becoming a near-elite coverage defender. The corners are bolstered by Denzel Ward, who graded above average a season ago but can climb higher. The Browns added Troy Hill to play in the nickel, a player with an above-average grade. The question mark is how well Grant Newsome, the rookie from Northwestern, can adapt to the NFL. Newsome was our 32nd ranked player on our big board and the 4th rated CB entering the 2020 NFL draft. Cleveland By The Numbers The Browns were solid on defense a season ago, but they did give a lot of explosive plays ranking in the middle of the NFL with 49 plays allowed of 20+ yards or more through the air. 10 of the 49 explosive plays allowed went for 40+. They answered the bell in the offseason by employing two big-time safeties to protect the back half of their defense. (4th) Baltimore Ravens Team Grade: 6.71 The Ravens could arguably possess the top secondary in the NFL. They ranked 6th in yards allowed and 3rd in yds per pass attempt in 2020. Their strength is at CB, where they have Jimmy Smith, Marcus Peters, and Marlon Humphrey. All three are highly graded players. The back half of the secondary employs two very good safeties in DeShon Elliott and Chuck Clark. Baltimore By The Numbers The Ravens blitz a lot, but they are multiple in their coverage scheme, allowing them to succeed with blitzing while not giving up many explosive plays. The Ravens allowed the third-lowest total of explosive plays through the air in 2020 while still ranking in the bottom third of the out-of-position tackle rate. (5th) Buffalo Bills Team Grade: 6.67 The Bills ranked top third in the NFL in explosive deep plays in 2020. In 2021, they return one of the best safety tandems in the league and corner(s) Tre'Davious White and Levi Wallace, both of which are high-quality players with WHite leading the way. Taron Johnson will head the nickel corner. Bills By The Numbers Protecting against the deep ball a season ago was vital for the Buffalo defense. Sean McDermott, who uses a lot of zone coverage, primarily cover three, is one reason they successfully protect against the deep ball. The Bills allowed 25 plays of 20+ yards through the air, which ranked 3rd in the NFL a season ago. Even with a 36% blitz rate, the Bills remained disciplined enough in their secondary to protect against the explosive plays.

Run Stops/Success Rate In football, situation matters, from field position, down and distance, the QTR, time left, etc. There are a lot of elements that need consideration when evaluating the success of one play vs. another. In this analysis, we are using run stop success as one of the measures to grade and rank the best NFL rush defenses. How to Measure Run Stops We measure a win or a loss on a single defensive play in any situation run or pass using the following based on down and distance. 1st and 10 hold the offense under 4 yards (if 1st down is a different distance, hold the opponent under 40 percent of the yardage) 2nd down Hold the offense under 1/2 the distance for a first down (if 2nd and 6, hold under 3 yards), 3rd Down hold the offense less than distance for conversion, 4th Down hold the offense less than distance for conversion. Third Down Average Yds To Go (Behind Schedule) I often talk about on-schedule off-schedule plays when evaluating a team. One of the ways to keep your opponent off schedule, as alluded to above, is to hold them under a particular percentage of yards gained based on down and distance (See how to measure run stops above). If a team is ultimately in a 3rd down and 4+ yards to go, that is a victory for a defense. Why Keeping Your Opponent Off Schedule Is Important? Keeping the offense off schedule limits their play calling opportunities. The longer the distance on a third-down play, the more obvious their play-calling becomes, and that is where the sum of the whole comes into play. You can limit your opponent as much as you want, but if you cannot apply an effective pass rush in critical third-down situations and your pass coverage is unable to their job, keeping an opponent off schedule becomes useless. The best teams in football are able to consistently keep their opponent off schedule, apply pass rush in critical moments, and are good at defending the passing game in critical moments. Missed Tackle Rate/Out Of Position The overall team missed tackle rate is also a value we take into consideration when evaluating a team. Missed tackle rate measures the total times a player is out of position or in position but somehow loses leverage and does not tackle the opposing ball carrier. We use total player snap counts to determine the total missed tackle rate. Other analyses include film analysis and overall player grade averages that give us a final team grade. (1st) New Orleans Saints Run Stop Grade: 7.71 The Saints defense against the run in 2020 ranked 5th in the NFL in yds per rush attempt total (3.9). The Saints DL returns its nucleus in 2021 with edge rusher Marcus Davenport, DT Shy Tuttle, DT David Onyemata, and rusher edge Cameron Jordan. Second-level defender Mario Davis (LB) and third-level defenders Malcolm Jenkins and Marcus Williams are all rated in the top tier of run stoppers in the NFL. The Saints have an elite or near-elite graded player at every level of their defense, with the core of their DL grading no lower than a tier two level one grade up to tier one elite. Saints By The Numbers In 2020, the Saints ranked in the middle of the league in run stops as a team, but they were very good at keeping offenses off schedule with an average yard(s) to go on third downs of 7.0. The Saints were also solid at preventing third-down conversions holding their opponents to a 38% average conversion rate (Top 3rd). The Saints were above league average and in the middle third in out-of-position tackling rate, and that lines up with their near top third blitz rate of 32% in 2020. The Saints did well to prevent plays of 15+ yards in 2020, ranking 6th in the NFL. The Saints were in the top third of score rate on a per drive scale in 2020 and five percentage points above league average. They also ranked in the top third of pts per drive allowed (1.9). (2nd) Los Angeles Rams Run Stop Grade: 7.40 The Rams rush defense has been a consistently good unit the last two years after ranking dead last in 2018 in yards per rush allowed (5.1). The rams improved their yds per rush average from 2018 to 2019 by a full yard and moved into the top third of NFL rush defenses. In 2020, the Rams improved once again, allowing 3.8 yds per att ranking 3rd in the NFL. The Rams will have a new DC (Raheem Morris) who replaces Brandon Staley, who parlayed his success the last few seasons into a head coaching gig. The Rams defense led by all-world DT and the elite-graded Aaron Donald will remain strong upfront in 2021. Donald leads a defensive front who ranked 5th in run stop rate in 2020, and he is paired with DT Sebastian Joseph-Day and DT A'Shawn Robinson up front. Robinson is the lowest graded player on the Rams defensive front receiving a tier two average starter grade. Robinson projected to play on the interior in the Rams base defense, while Donald generally flips inside in sub-packages (Nickel and Dime). The loss of Michael Brockers to the Lions will be an area to keep an eye on as the Rams try to continue their run stop ascension. The second level of the Rams defense is an area of concern as LB Kenny Young, and Micah Keyser received low grades vs. the run in 2020, making it difficult to project anything but moderate improvement in 2021. The Rams are arguably the best in the secondary, with all four players grading average to tier-one level three in run defense. The Rams no longer have tier one run defender John Johnson who is now in Cleveland; he will be replaced by a combo of safety defenders who are all highly graded to defend against the run in Jordan Fuller and Taylor Rapp. Rams By The Numbers The Rams were the 5th best team in stop rate in 2020; they had the third-lowest rate of plays where a defender was out of position to make a play in 2020, which shows up in the data on plays of 15+ yards or more where the Rams ranked 1st in 2020 (69). The Rams were also bottom third in blitz rate (25.4%). The Rams ranked in the top third of NFL defenses in third-down average yards to go, which is an indicator of first down and second down success rate (behind schedule). The Rams had the top defense in score rate (27.9%) and pts per drive (1.5) in 2020. (3rd) Pittsburgh Steelers Run Stop Grade: 7.17 The Steelers defense ranked middle third of the NFL in rush yds per attempt (3.8) in 2020, down from 3rd overall in 2019 (4.3). But don't let the YPC numbers fool you. The Steelers are very good upfront even after losing Bud Dupree. The Steelers, like the Rams, possess a strong first level that includes DL Tyson Alualu, Cameron Heyward, and Stephon Tuitt, all of which are highly graded run stoppers, with Heyward graded at a near-elite level. The Steelers have all-world player T.J. Watt, an elite-level run stopper on the edge of their defense. The other edge spot projects to be handled by Alex Highsmith, who replaces Dupree. Highsmith has the projectible upside, and we believe he will successfully replace Dupree. On the second level of their defense, the LB's are average to above-average vs. the run. Devin Bush returns from a 2020 ACL injury, and it is his sideline to sideline ability in run pursuit that allows the Steelers to be versatile. Bush is a player with a lot of potential yet to be realized. In the secondary, the Steelers have two strong run defenders on the back half in Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds. The corners are the big question mark as they boast the lowest run grades. Steelers By The Numbers The Steelers led the NFL in stop rate in 2020 at a 62% clip vs. the run. One area of improvement that will be critical is their discipline in the run game. The Steelers were ranked in the bottom third of the NFL with a high out-of-position rate when making tackles or in pursuit, which is a testament to their aggressive nature on defense, boasting a 40% blitz rate in 2020. Another element that the out-of-position rate tells us to examine is explosive plays allowed. The Steelers ranked bottom third of the NFL in total plays of 15 Yards or more in 2020, with 20 of those coming in the run game. They were also guilty of giving up the big play while ranking in the top third of the NFL in average yards to go (9.3) when giving up the explosive play. The Steelers did rank top third in average third-down yards to (7.7) and also at the top of the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. The Steelers ranked 2nd in opponent score rate (29.3%) on a per drive basis and ranked 2nd in pts per drive allowed (1.6). (4th) Denver Broncos Run Stop Grade: 6.86 The Broncos have the pieces. Imagine a world where Aaron Rodgers is the QB leading this roster. The sum of the whole would be complete as we believe that even an elite offensive player can elevate the level at which a defense performs. The Broncos defense has talent at all levels, with more proven talent than unproven. The DL bolstered by Dre'Mont Jones and Shelby Harris, who are high-level run defenders in their own right, are surrounded by two of the league's top edge players in Bradley Chubb and Von Miller. On paper from past evals, Miller is the higher graded run defender on the edge of the Denver defense, with Chubb grading out at below average to average, with projected high upside potential. The second and third levels of the Broncos run defense boast Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell, who are graded average to above average against the run. The secondary is strong vs. the run, with Simmons and Jackson grading out at a tier-one level. Broncos By The Numbers Denver ranked top third of run stop with a 53% stop rate, yet they were exploited in yards per carry (4.8) average ranking near the bottom of the league in 2020. Their out-of-position rate is in the middle third of the NFL, suggesting that they need to improve in this area. Similar to the Steelers, the Broncos also had 122 plays where they gave up 15+ yards. The Broncos were not as aggressive as the Steelers in the blitz department, suggesting that the Broncos must improve their play calling, player positioning, and technique. The Broncos were a fringe top third defense in the area of yds to go average on third down (7.1), and they were slightly above the league average in third-down conversion defense (36.5%) and the middle third of the NFL. The Broncos allowed opponents to score pts on 44.6% of drives ranking in the bottom third of the NFL and five percentage pts below league average in 2020. Den ranked below league average and in the bottom third in pts per drive allowed (2.2) in 2020. (5th) Washington Football Team Run Stop Grade: 6.83 The depth of talented players on Washington's defensive front is absurd. Chase Young, Montez Sweat man the edges, both rated as near-elite vs. the run. On the interior of the DL, they have Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Payne is tier-one level three vs. the run and a hair outside of the near-elite tier two-level, while Allen is below average to average. The second level of the defense will have a rookie paired with Jon Bostic, who has a poor 2020 run grade and doesn't have a lot of projected upside vs. the run. Rookie LB Jamin Davis, who the Football team drafted in the first round, was a late draft riser with impressive film. There is no doubt Davis has the talent, but this is the NFL. LB's are tested in multiple ways making discipline even more important, so expect opponents to try and exploit the LB's in Washington this season. The secondary players at the safety position grade as average to below-average vs. the run, while the corners are very strong. Ultimately, the success of this defense begins and ends with the front four in 2021. Football Team By The Numbers The Football Team ranked top third in run-stop rate (52%) and ranked 2nd in the league in out of position tackle rate (11%). Their defense held opponents to average third-down yds to go of 7.3 ranked in the top third. The Football Team ranked 4th in score rate on a per drive basis and 3rd in pts per drive allowed in 2020. They ranked middle third in blitz rate (32.4%), indicating their discipline in 2020 is high.

We are getting closer and closer to real football again, which means that it is time to start the player rankings conversations. Today we examine the top five overall (team) pass rush grades using our new individual player grade system that we developed in recent months. Click here to go to our 2021 NFL Offseason Guide How the Grade System Works The Football Scout 365 process and philosophy are predicated on the connection between advanced metrics and on-field play. The numbers can sometimes tell a different story than the film, and that is where our situational analysis plays a pivotal role in interpreting individual and team performance. Positional Group Grades In recent weeks, we have graded and ranked the top individual players by tier groups. Today's analysis covers the offensive line as a whole. By using the individual player grades, we can get an average grade by position group. The average grade will indicate the teams that possess the highest graded players at each position. Because we believe that certain position groups are only as good as the sum of the whole. You can view the complete player and team grade process by clicking here. Positional Grades Using a Philosophical Holism Approach Using a philosophical holism (the whole is greater than the sum of its parts) style to grading a position group will help us identify where the strengths and weaknesses reside at each position. Learn More About Holism Via Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy Some Average Grade Characteristics To Consider From Years Past Teams with a 6 grade or higher are playoff-caliber teams, while those at 7 or above are considered Super Bowl Contenders. Using the same premise for each position group, we can identify championship-caliber on non-championship caliber position groups. *Subject to change The Teams Whose Pass Rush Project At The Top Of The NFL In 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Grade: 7.86 The Bucs return elite-level pass rusher Vita Vea in the middle of their defense with Ndamukong Suh to bolster the interior. Edge Rushers Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett are two-tier one, level three defenders who combined to accumulate 124 of the Bucs 340 total pressures in 2020 and a combined 19 sacks. Washington Football team Team Grade: 7.71 The Washington Football Team enter the 2021 NFL season with a DL bookended by near elite-level defender Chase Young, who will climb to an elite level in due time, and Montez Sweat, a tier-one level three player who could ascend to near-elite level in 2021. With 255 total pressures as a group in 2020, the Football Team didn't reach the potential we project them to achieve in 2021. Washington's defensive front is capable of 300 pressures and 60 sacks in 2021. Pittsburgh Steelers Team Grade: 7.57 The Steelers lost Bud Dupree in free agency this offseason to the Titans, but they still have all-pro edge player T.J. Watt. Watt is in the elite grade level of pass rushers, paired with Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt, who are tier one, level three players. LA Rams Team Grade: 7.40 Aaron Donald led the NFL in pressures, and depending on where you employ your data, Donald had between 67 to 97 total pressures. Donald has opened the door for guys like Leonard Floyd to pick up ten sacks in 2020. As Donald goes, so will the Rams DL. New York Jets Team Grade: 7.33 Under new GM Joe Douglas and Head Coach Robert Saleh, the Jets added to their pass rush in free agency by snagging Sheldon Rankins, Vinny Curry, and Carl Lawson. The Jets already have young up-and-coming players, Quinnen Williams, Folorunso Fatukasi, making this one of the most intriguing defensive fronts in 2021.

The 2021 NFL season is less than 100 days away, and we are in the midst of full projection season. As we continue to finish our preseason statistical projections, we wanted to throw out a post covering five players to watch out for in 2021. The analysis parameters will include several factors such as statistical projections, recent year stats, current team situation, 2021 player grade projection. In some instances, we use additional outside data or scouting reports to support the analysis. Check out our preseason NFL guide. (Note) Our analysis will exclude highly projected players that missed all of or a high percentage of 2020 due to injury or other circumstances. Players such as Saquon Barkley and CMC are excluded from this list because obvious is obvious (They are elite when healthy). Check out the player and team grade dashboard (Beta). (#1). WR A.J. Brown Tennessee Titans Rec Grade: TIER 1 Level 2 Good 2021 Stat Projections: 138 Tgt, 1236 yds, 9 TD's A.J. Brown is a player on the rise in 2021. In 2020, he amassed nearly 1100 yards on 70 receptions. He tied for 10th in the NFL in yards per target with 10.1. Brown is the definition of yards after the catch savant who averaged 6.1 yards after the catch in 2020, ranking 6th among WR's with at least 50 targets. His ability to be physically dominant against DB's in the NFL in his first two seasons gives us reason to believe he will only continue to ascend. (Analysis prior to Julio Jones Trade). (#2). WR D.K. Metcalf Seattle Seahawks Rec Grade: TIER 1 Level 2 Near Elite 2021 Stat Projections: 131 Tgt, 1225, 8TD's Climbing up the charts like a BillBoard top 100 single, Metcalf has all of the potential to enter the elite level in 2021. His 1300 yards receiving ranked 7th in the NFL in 2020. Among WR's with at least 100 targets, Metcalf ranked 2nd to Calvin Ridley in average depth of target (13.7). Metcalf is a physical player with incredible deep-ball ability. The areas where Metcalf needs to improve, route running at the short and intermediate levels and limiting drops; once he improves in both, he will undoubtedly leap into the elite status. (#3). WR Terry McLaurin Washington Football Team Rec Grade: TIER 1, Level 2, Near Elite 2021 Stat Projections: 146 Tgt, 1110 Yds, 7 TD's McLaurin is possibly the most technically sound young WR in the NFL. A good route runner who can get consistent separation and who boasts 4.3 speed. McLaurin posted 1100 yards in 2020 while working with sub-par QB play. His ceiling is absolutely in the elite tier, and he has an opportunity to prove that with Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fold in 2021. The area where McLaurin will likely see an increase in 2021 will be his average depth of target. His ADOT dropped from 2019 (14.0) to 2020 (9.7). (#4). WR Chris Godwin Tampa Bay Bucs Rec Grade: TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average 2021 Stat Projections: Chris Godwin entered the 2020 season as a player who had elite-level WR written all over him with Tom Brady as his QB. He did not hit the elite level overall but did show why we believe he can reach the elite level of tier one. His route running ability is high-level, and his slot prowess is exactly what Tom Brady needs. Godwin still managed to post 800+ yards on 84 targets while playing in only 12 games. If he can stay healthy in 2021, he will likely be Tom Brady's favorite target. (#5) WR Jerry Jeudy Denver Broncos Rec Grade: Tier 2, level 1, Average 2021 Stat Projections: 108 Tgt, 915 Yds, 6 TD's Jerry Jeudy battled through drops and inconsistent QB play as a rookie in 2020, but he did show flashes of brilliance. His ability as a high-level route runner and finding holes in coverage are the two strengths that we believe Jeudy will continue to build on. Assuming that Denver continues forward with Drew Lock or Teddy B in 2021, Jeudy will play a masterful role in the success of either player, but let's also consider the trade rumors of Aaron Rodgers to Denver. Jeudy managed only 52 catches on 113 targets in 2020. Juedy vowed this offseason to improve his concentration to decrease his total drop rate. If he can do that, he will have the opportunity to enter into the tier one, level three range of WR's in 2021, with a ceiling that can soon reach tier one elite.

We are getting closer and closer to real football again, which means that it is time to start the player rankings conversations. Today we examine the top five overall (team) run-blocking grades using our new individual player grade system that we developed in recent months. Click here to go to our 2021 NFL Offseason Guide How the Grade System Works The Football Scout 365 process and philosophy are predicated on the connection between advanced metrics and on-field play. The numbers can sometimes tell a different story than the film, and that is where our situational analysis plays a pivotal role in interpreting individual and team performance. Positional Group Grades In recent weeks, we have graded and ranked the top individual players by tier groups. Today's analysis covers the offensive line as a whole. By using the individual player grades, we can get an average grade by position group. The average grade will indicate the teams that possess the highest graded players at each position. Because we believe that certain position groups are only as good as the sum of the whole, we will grade out the top offensive lines by total run blocking grade in this analysis. Then we will have an additional analysis that covers the total team pass-blocking grade. You can view the complete player and team grade process by clicking here. Positional Grades Using a Philosophical Holism Approach Using a philosophical holism (the whole is greater than the sum of its parts) style to grading a position group will help us identify where the strengths and weaknesses reside at each position. Learn More About Holism Via Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy When evaluating position groups during an every play analysis, coaches, players, and those who understand the inner workings of an offensive or defensive position group, it is a consensus in football that one player's lousy technique can adversely affect the position group and team as a whole. Some Average Grade Characteristics To Consider From Years Past Teams with a 6 grade or higher are playoff-caliber teams, while those at 7 or above are considered Super Bowl Contenders. Using the same premise for each position group, we can identify championship-caliber on non-championship caliber position groups. *Subject to change Teams Poised To Dominate On The Ground In 2021 (1st). San Francisco 49ers Run Blocking (Overall Grade 7.17) The 49ers have made it clear in recent years based on how they have approached building their offensive line that running the football will be their top priority. The 49ers retained Trent Williams, who boasts an elite blocking grade according to the Football Scout 365 player grades. Williams is the clear alpha in the 49ers OL room. In addition, the 49ers went out and signed free agent C Alex Mack who has been fantastic as both a run and a pass blocker for the Falcons in recent years. LG Laken Tomlinson and RT Mike McGlinchey are excellent run blockers, with McGlinchey rated as an elite-level run blocker. According to our grades, the 49ers have two highest-graded run blockers bookending their elite level OL heading into 2021. The one weak spot on paper is at RG, where we project the potential for a rookie (Aaron Banks) to start. Having a vet like Mack at C should help the young G get acclimated quickly. The 49er's intentions are clear; they will run the football. They drafted two more RB's and a dynamic QB in Trey Lance, adding a run game dimension to the 49er's QB room. The 49ers ran the 2nd highest rate of 21 personnel (2 backs, 1 TE) in 2020. Their usage of a FB (kyle Juszczyk) and a TE (George Kittle) and their RB by committee approach should remain the norm in 2021 as Kyle Shanahan will look to make life easier on his young rookie QB (assuming Lance is the starter). *(1st). Tampa Bay Buccaneers Run Blocking (Overall Grade 7.17) The Bucs are a year better upfront, and in 2020, they had one of the best rookie offensive linemen in Tristan Wirfs at RT, who received top ten level grades as a rookie. Wirfs grade as a run blocker was well above average and could approach an elite level after only one season based on his current trajectory. The Bucs run game averaged 6.0 yards per rush to Wirfs side in 2020. Both C Ryan Jensen and LT Donovan Smith graded similarly to Wirfs at the above-average level, with Ali Marpet grading out the highest with a near-elite level score of 9. When the Bucs ran to the area of Marpet and Jensen to the left (B Gap), they averaged 4.8 yards per rush attempt in 2020. The Bucs offense will be loaded in 2021, and fans should expect to see their run game take the next step. Look out for this to be a breakout season for RB Ronald Jones. Even with Fournette and Gio Bernard crowding the backfield, and the plethora of WR's to throw the ball to, Jones is a player who has become more of an explosive power back in recent years. His average of 3.7 yards after contact in 2020 ranked 3rd among RB's with at least 50 rush attempts. (2nd). Cleveland Browns Run Blocking (Overall Grade 7.14) A season ago, the Browns ran the football at one of the most efficient levels. According to NextGen Stats, The Browns faced an 8 Man box at the league's 9th highest rate, yet Nick Chubb accumulated the 2nd highest total yards over the expected average with actual yards per attempt of 5.6 (2nd in the NFL). Nick Chubb also ranked 5th in the NFL in explosive play rate, with 15% of his rush attempts going for 15 Yards or more. The 2020 Browns OL remained intact this offseason and one of the key reasons they project to be a legit Super Bowl contender in 2021. The Browns OL consists of 4 players rated as tier one in run blocking grade according to Football Scout 365, with G Wyatt Teller receiving an elite level A+ grade. The lowest graded player in the run game is now 2nd-year player Jedrick Wills Jr who received a developmental grade in 2020. Wills has the upside to ascend higher in 2021. Another data point to consider is that when the Browns ran to the left side where Wills is located, they still averaged more than 6 yards per attempt. This tells us that Wills has time to develop as a player with an elite-level backfield, a back like Nick Chubb, and a coach who draws up plays to protect his players in the run and pass game. The sum of the whole in Cleveland is a true contender in 2021. (3rd). Los Angeles Rams Run Blocking (Overall Grade 6.29) The Rams offense is predicated on the success of its run game. Like the Browns, the Rams are a team that uses the run to set up their play-action pass game. In recent years the usage of outside zone would set up the longer developing downfield pass plays for Jared Goff. Teams have caught on to the McVay approach, so the best way to neutralize those who know what is coming is to bolster your run game with the best possible run blockers. The Rams have a top run-blocking OL heading into 2021, and they also have a less scheme-dependent QB in Matthew Stafford, who will not need to live on the edge of the defense with rollouts and long-developing plays as often as Jared Goff. With Stafford, McVay can incorporate more from the standard drop-back pass game, which adds pressure to defense and increases the OL efficiency in both pass blocking and run blocking. The 2021 Rams OL consist of LT Andrew Whitworth (Tier One B+ Run Grade), RT Rob Havenstein (Tier One B+ Run Grade), with LG David Edwards and RG Austin Corbett, both with grades just a hair below tier one in tier two (Average, B-). The big question mark is Brian Allen, who is the projected center. The departure of Austin Blythe, who signed a free-agent contract with the Kansas City Chiefs, leaves the Rams with a void. Brian Allen, who started nine games in 2019, is the most likely candidate, though the fourth-year pro has missed significant amounts of playing time for most of the last two seasons because of a knee injury. Overall, the Rams run game in 2020 was solid. Rookie RB Cam Akers is the fan favorite to take the lead role in the backfield in 2021. Akers is a powerful back who possesses speed and is unafraid to make contact. He is also capable of making you miss in space. The Rams are not in the same stratosphere as the Browns at RB (obvious). But if we assume Akers can reach the potential we expect from him (which is at minimum a Tier One Level 3 RB), the Rams offense can potentially climb closer to the elite level run game we witnessed in Cleveland a season ago. Even if the Rams backs play at an average to above-average rate, the sum of the whole on the OL can at a minimum perform at a playoff level rate. According to NextGen Stats, we should also consider that Cam Akers faced an eight-man box on 37% of his rush attempts in 2020. You cannot load the box like that vs. Matt Stafford. The strategy of loading the box and forcing Jared Goff to beat you is no longer feasible in LA. (4th). New England Patriots Run Blocking (Overall Grade 6.27) The Patriots are building a strong OL once again to bolster its run game and protect whoever is behind center in 2021. If we assume that Cam Newton is the starter, the Patriots will be running the football once again at a high rate. The addition of two high-priced TE's in free agency (Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith) show that the Pats will be 12 personnel heavy in 2021. The Patriots have been an 11 personnel base offense since 2018 at or around 53% of the time while boasting a 2% 12 personnel rate in 2020, 13% in 2019, and 5% in 2018. Again, what does this mean? It means that they are looking to play in a phone booth similar to how you see the Ravens and 49ers handle their business with multiple TE's and FB's in the formation. The OL player run-blocking grades consist of LT Isaiah Wynn, a road grader in the run game boasting a tier-one near-elite level grade in 2020, RG Shaq Mason, and LG Michael Onwenu both grade out as high-level near-elite level run blockers. Trent Brown is the newcomer at RT acquired via free agency. Brown is the lowest graded OL for the Pats, yet he is still an adequate run blocker with a grade of Tier Two C+ and a player who can get better because of surrounding OL talent. Center David Andrews is also a solid run blocker with a C+ grade. The Patriot's backs faced a lot of 8 man boxes, according to NextGen Stats in 2020. Damien Harris led the way facing an eight-man front 39% of the time (3rd highest rate). Harris still managed to pick up a 5 yards per attempt average. (5th). Baltimore Ravens Run Blocking (Overall Grade 6.00) Even when you know what is coming, can you stop it? The Ravens OC Greg Roman caught a lot of criticism for lack of creativity in 2020. The validity of a lack of creativity argument hinges on a few angles with one that I am sure of, the WR's have lacked high-level consistency and have needed to add an actual number one WR to play on the outside since Lamar became the starter in 2018. And then there is the Lamar Jackson argument about a lack of accuracy, and in some instances, the argument is valid, but is it fair considering the style of player that Lamar is? For me, creativity is in the eye of the beholder. The true beauty of the Ravens offense lies within its run game. The combination of the inside, outside running using zone read, inside zone, or gap blocking and the athleticism of Lamar Jackson is where the true creative magic of the Ravens offense resides. The OL for the Ravens battled through injury, and the loss of Marshall Yanda to retirement left a giant hole in the middle of the Ravens OL in 2020. The talent in the Ravens backfield is bolstered by Lamar Jackson, who demands the defense's attention and opens up opportunities for other backs in the read-option game. J.K. Dobbins came on strong late in the season as a rookie averaging 6.0 yards per rush attempt. But it would be Gus Edwards whose presence would dictate a defense's use of an eight-man box in 2020. According to NextGen Stats, Edwards faced an eight-man box on 34% of his rush attempts a season ago. The Ravens OL run grades are relatively equal across the board heading into the 2021 season. LT Ronnie Stanley boasts the highest grade, with LG Bradley Bozeman, C Patrick Merkari, RG Kevin Zeitler, and RT Alejandro Villanueva grading out at a tier two C level average as run blockers. The strength of the run game might once again reside on the left side of the offense from the A gap to the D gap left; the Ravens averaged 7 yards per attempt with the TE's and WR's on the Ravens roster grading out as average to a nearly elite level in run-blocking grades.

We are getting closer and closer to real football again, which means that it is time to start the player rankings conversations. Today we examine the top five overall (team) pass-blocking grades using our new individual player grade system that we developed in recent months. Click here to go to our 2021 NFL Offseason Guide How the Grade System Works The Football Scout 365 process and philosophy are predicated on the connection between advanced metrics and on-field play. The numbers can sometimes tell a different story than the film, and that is where our situational analysis plays a pivotal role in interpreting individual and team performance. Positional Group Grades In recent weeks, we have graded and ranked the top individual players by tier groups. Today's analysis covers the offensive line as a whole. By using the individual player grades, we can get an average grade by position group. The average grade will indicate the teams that possess the highest graded players at each position. Because we believe that certain position groups are only as good as the sum of the whole, we will grade out the top offensive lines by total pass blocking grade in this analysis. You can view the complete player and team grade process by clicking here. What I look for On Film when evaluating The OL. For the most part, you scout all of the offensive line positions similarly with a few variations. Everything begins and ends with how a player moves, observing the prospect's first few steps when in pass pro, their athleticism and ability to get to an area to block in the run game, hand usage, and strength. Pass Blocking Some prospects are raw but athletic and need polish, vs. some who are very technical but lack strength or athleticism. As a pass blocker, how well does the lineman use his hands? Does he stick and move like a boxer with good footwork (punch defender). How does he handle a bull rush or players who use a wide array of hand combos to disengage? Where are his eyes? Is the prospect flat-footed at times or consistently on his toes? Run Blocking Can the prospect get a good push or move a defender? Can he leverage the defender with his size? Does he play with a good bend (bends at the knee, not at the waist)? When moving the defender, does he distribute his power from the legs up? Is the prospect's hand placement in the correct area (inside shoulders, thumbs are pointing up)? Does the player finish, and is he consistent in all of these critical areas? Scheme Fit The scheme fit matters; some guys are more comfortable in a zone-blocking scheme than, say a power, or gap scheme; some are good at both. Some are good with straight-up man blocking one on one; it varies with the run game as a general rule; Gap schemes are more effective if your offensive linemen are not physically as strong as the defensive linemen help deal with stunts and twists. Zone Schemes are great ways to feature a runner with great vision and punish fast-flowing linebackers. What I look For When Evaluating OL Using Data When evaluating an offensive lineman, the data that I look for includes sacks and pressures allowed by the individual player and blown assignment rate. All three of these metrics are negative contributions to the whole of the entire OL. Blown assignments lead to pressure and sacks. The NFL's best OL are those who show up the least on film or instant replays during a broadcast. If you are not being highlighted as an OL, you are likely doing your part to keep pressure off of the QB. The same philosophy can be used to determine what players are strong run blockers. If a player blows an assignment while run blocking whether the play results in a negative play or not, is considered a negative for that individual player and will be counted as a negative vs. the whole group as a part of our sum of the whole position grades. Positional Grades Using a Philosophical Holism Approach Using a philosophical holism (the whole is greater than the sum of its parts) style to grading a position group will help us identify where the strengths and weaknesses reside at each position. Learn More About Holism Via Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy Some Average Grade Characteristics To Consider From Years Past Teams with a 6 grade or higher are playoff-caliber teams, while those at 7 or above are considered Super Bowl Contenders. Using the same premise for each position group, we can identify championship-caliber on non-championship caliber position groups. *Subject to change Teams Poised To Lead The NFL In Lowest Number Of Pressures Allowed, and Least Sacks Allowed in 2021. (1st). Cleveland Browns (Overall Grade 8.00) Overview Boasting the NFL preseason's top offensive line on paper, the Browns already carry the NFL's second-ranked team run-blocking grade heading into 2021. In 2020, the Browns offensive line allowed a league-low 88 pressures, and of the 26 total sacks allowed, the OL attributed to only 50% of those total sacks on the grade sheet, with the rest landing at the feet of a missed assignment by a non-OL or Baker Mayfield. Brown's OL Boasts High Grades In All Aspects The Browns boast three of Football Scout 365's highest-graded pass blockers, J.C. Tretter, Joel Bitonio, and Jack Conklin who are all tier one, level two near-elite players. In addition, the Browns have one of the top young OT's in the NFL, Jedrick Wills Jr., who boasts a tier-one level three grade and is a player who could enter near-elite to elite level grades in 2021. Wyatt Teller is another solid pass blocker, he is Cleveland's lowest graded pass blocker according to our metrics, yet he is one of the league's best IOL. Browns OL With Least Blown Assignments In 2020 Other variables to take into consideration, Joel Bitonio, J.C. Tretter, Wyatt Teller, and Jack Conklin accounted for a total of 27 total-blown assignments while in pass pro in 2020, while the rookie Jedrick Wills Jr. accumulated 16 on his own. Among players with at least 500 pass pro snaps, 5 or fewer blown assignments is high level. (2nd). Arizona Cardinals (Overall Grade 7.80) Overview The Cardinals are a team that has many pieces falling into place, including its offensive line. The Cardinals carry the NFL's 2nd best pass blocking grade as a whole. In 2020, the Cardinals surrendered 29 total sacks. Of those 29 sacks, the OL was accountable for only 10 of those sacks. The Cards OL also ranked 4th in the NFL in pressure allowed with 116 vs. the team total of 166. D.J. Humphries Projects Into The Elite Level Tier One, Others May Follow Him Arizona has one of the NFL's elite-level tackles (D.J. Humphries) according to Football Scout 365 metrics. Humphries is paired with LG Justin Pugh and their newest addition from the Raiders at Center Rodney Hudson, one of the top IOL players in the league. All five starters have a 7 grade or better across the board heading into the 2021 NFL season. The Addition of Rodney Hudson The upgrade at the center position from Mason Cole to Rodney Hudson is night and day. Hudson is a near-elite level center that will provide a seasoned set of eyes that will help the young Kyler Murray identify potential pressure areas. Blown Assignments Caused By Multiple Variables in 2020 The other variable to consider is that the two tackle spots in 2020 accounted for the highest total of blown assignments with both Kelvin Beachum and D.J. Humphries accounting for 36 of the 71 total-blown assignments according to data provided SIS. The Cardinals did a great job masking these issues, and there is another data point to consider, Kyler Murray using his legs to protect his OL. In 2020, the Cardinals allowed 29 total sacks; only ten were attributed to the OL, which is a huge surprise considering the more significant number of blown assignments. Kyler Murray's Time To Throw, Time To Take Off, And How He Was Accountable For The Majority Of His Teams Sacks In 2020 Murray ranked in the middle of the league in 2020 with an average time to throw 2.58 sec and was rated third in the NFL in average time to run, which is a number that calculates a player's ability to keep a pass play alive before taking off. This indicates that on pass plays, the OL and especially the tackles on the edge of the offense had to work longer to sustain their blocks, resulting in a higher rate of missed assignments. Murray, on his own, would account for 14 of the 29 total sacks, which occurred when he would work to keep a play alive rather than finding an open target or getting rid of the football. The remaining five sacks occurred on missed assignments from additional players added in pass pro, TE, FB, RB's, etc. (3rd). Indianapolis Colts (Overall Grade 7.57) Overview The talent on the Colt's OL is on pace to be the best in the NFL. Of the 21 total sacks allowed in 2020, the Colt's OL would account for 12. The Colts OL surrendered the league's 6th lowest total pressures with 125 in 2020. Colts OL Boasting High-Level Individual Player Grades From right to left, it is hard to find a glaring weakness on this Colt's OL. They Added free agent LT Eric Fisher who will pair with star LG Quenton Nelson. The Colts do not have a starter with a grade lower than 7. Weak Link Is Not A "Weak Link" In Indy Whenever you can say that your potential weak link on your offensive line is RG Mark Glowinski who accounted for 20 of Colt's 54 blown assignments in pass pro, well that's a first-world problem. Carson Wentz will be playing behind the best OL he has had since arriving in the NFL and arguably the best OL overall in 2021. (4th). Green Bay Packers (Overall Grade 7.40) Overview The Packers OL in 2020 was arguably the best in pass protection. The OL surrendered a league-best (lowest) 9 of the teams 21 total sacks. The Packers also tied with the Browns in pressures allowed by its OL with 88. Elite LT David Bakhtiari suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice in late December of 2020. Here we are in 2021, and Bakhtiari is still considered an elite-level OT who will bolster the left side of the Packer's offense. The Packers OL also has a rising star at LG in Elgton Jenkins, graded as a tier-one level three player heading into 2021, but can reach near-elite or elite by the season's end. Packers Will Likely Start A Rookie At Center The Packer's weakness upfront is rookie center Josh Myers from Ohio State. Myers graded out as our 5th best IOL in the 2021 NFL Draft, a player with many potential qualities and significant playing experience in the Big Ten appears poised to be a week one starter for the Packers in 2021. The Impact of a Rookie Center So let's discuss the impact of having a rookie center on your OL. This is not to discredit Josh Myers in any way, but he is a rookie, and the impact that this will have on the Packers, especially without Aaron Rodgers, could be detrimental to the sum of the whole. The center position is critical in the NFL because the center is responsible for calling out protections and identifying where pressure might occur. You can mask some of these problems if you have Aaron Rodgers, but without Aaron, the Packer's OL might not live up to expectations in 2021. LT David Bakhtiari ACL Recovery Timeline The sum of the whole will be drastically in peril without David Bakhtiari, especially without Aaron Rodgers. Bakhtiari is only five months into his recovery from an injury that can take upwards of 12 months or longer to recover. In a recent press conference, the Packers head coach Matt Lefleur mentioned that Bakhtiari is ahead of schedule but offered no timetable for a return. Without the star LT early in 2021, the Packers might have to roll with Elgdon Jenkins kicked out at LT while inserting another rookie in Jon Runyon Jr. from Michigan at LG. (5th). Dallas Cowboys (Overall Grade 7.20) Overview "How bout them, Cowboys"? Jerry world let us down in 2020 with a dud of a season, primarily due to the loss of star QB Dak Prescott, but not entirely. The Cowboys had many injuries at key spots, including their OL, which became a patchwork shadow of what it once was. Of the 44 total sacks allowed by the team as a whole, the OL would be accountable for 39 of those. If the Cowboys remain healthy, they have one of the NFL's top five best pass blocking units. The Cowboys will run it back with LT Tyron Smith, a Tier One Level three graded OT; he will be lined up next to LG Connor Williams, a tier two-player with a lot of upside. On the other side, the Cowboys will trot out an elite level player overall in Zach Martin, who boasts a tier-one, level three pass-blocking grade. To the right of Martin, we have RT La'el Collins, who is a wild card at best to return at full health after Missing all of 2020 with a hip issue that resulted in surgery. La'el Collins Health When healthy, Collins would have likely graded out as a tier-one player, and that is where we have him as of today (tier one, level three) until we hear otherwise about his health. Center Position A Major Question The glaring weakness on the OL for the Cowboys outside of the unknown with Collins is at the center position where 2020 rookie Tyler Biadasz would step in for the retired Travis Frederick. His shoes would prove too large to fill for Tyler Biadasz as a rookie. His improvement at the center will be one of the big areas to watch for early in 2021. Biadasz was graded as a tier two, level three developmental player in 2020.

We are getting closer and closer to real football again and that means that it is time to start the player rankings conversations. Today we begin by examining the QB position using our new individual player grade system that we developed in recent months. Go to Player Grade Dashboard (Coming Soon) How the Grade System Works The Football Scout 365 process and philosophy are predicated on the connection between advanced metrics and on-field play. The numbers can sometimes tell a different story than the film and that is where our situational analysis plays a pivotal role in how we interpret individual and team performance. You can view the full player and team grade process by clicking here. Individual Player Grades For Current NFL Players Below you will see a list of color-coded tiers followed by a descending grade scale. The grading scale is a 1-10 model with 10 being elite, and <3 as poor to very poor. The grading scale uses variables based on each player's positional focus and uses particularly advanced metrics such as pressure rate and sacks for pass rushers. Each tier carries an average value based on various data points, including the previous season's data. Our rankings are not an indictment of one's career and are more of a projection-based tier system used to identify current players' potential ceilings or floors. Tier 1 Elite Level, MVP Potential 1 = 10 (A+) Good Level 2, All Pro Level = 9 (A-) Above Average Level 3, Pro Bowl Caliber = 8 (B+) Tier 2 Average Starter Level 1, Starter, Role Player = 7 (B-) Below Average, Can be Boom Or Bust = 6 (C+) Developmental Player = 5 (C-) Tier 3 Poor= 4 (D+) Very Poor = <3 D- Depth or Replacements Needed 2021 Preseason Tier One Level NFL QB Rankings Tier One, Level One, Elite Level, All-Pro, MVP Level Talent TIER 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers? Aaron Rodgers had arguably his best season in 2020. He posted a tier-one elite level grade as QB throwing for 4300 yds, 48 TD's to only 5 INT's. His on-target throw rate was tops in the NFL at 81% among QB's with at least 200 dropbacks. TIER 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs Mahomes continues to wow everyone; in 2020, we found out he just learned to read a defense (scary). He earned an elite level tier one grade while training on the job in 2020. Mahomes threw for 4700+ yards, 38 TD's to only 6 INT. Folks, he is only going to get better. TIER 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Bucs Tampa Tom did Tom Brady things in 2020. He led a team of believers who never sniffed the playoffs in recent years to a Super Bowl title. There is currently a waiting list for those who wish to play in Tampa with Tom before he walks away from the game. I won't mention age because it still does not matter. Tom posted 4600 yards in 2020 while throwing for 40 TD's and 12 INT's. TIER 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans? Deshaun Watson continued to play at an elite level in 2020 on a bad team. He graded out at an elite level earning a high tier one grade. Watson threw for a league-leading 4800 yards while tossing 33 TD's to only 7 INT's. TIER 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Josh Allen, Buffalo BIlls Josh Allen experienced tremendous year-over-year growth. He posted an elite level tier one grade in 2020 while throwing for 4500+ yds, 37 TD's to 10 INT's. He improved his accuracy posting a 69% completion rate (5th) in 2020. Tier One, Level Two, All-Pro Level Talent, High Upside TIER 1 Good =9 (A-) Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks Wilson earned a grade just a hair below the elite level tier one grade in 2020 while posting 4200 yards, 40 TD's and 13 INT's. Wilson began the 2020 season on a scorched earth NFL pace before falling back to earth. Wilson has the potential to crack into the elite conversation in 2021. (Wilson is on the cusp of entering back into the top level of tier one). TIER 1 Good =9 (A-) Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans Ryan Tannehill has been a model of consistency since arriving in Tennessee. He is arguably one of the better decision-makers in the league over the last few seasons; he is also one of the best QB's off of play-action pass, if not the best. According to the data, Tannehill ranked 7th in QBR off of play-action in 2020. He does have Derrick Henry to thank for part of his success. Tier One, Level Three, Above Average Level 3, Pro Bowl Caliber TIER 1 Above Average = 8 (B+) Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys Dak is our number one candidate for comeback player of the year in 2021. He was on pace for 6 million yards in 2020 before the injury happened. in 2020, we projected the Cowboys to be a Super Bowl Caliber team, but without Dak the drop-off was drastic. That alone is proof enough of his value. Before the injury, Dak led the league in yards per dropback (7.7). With his current surrounding cast in place, Dak has a real chance to finish 2021 with an elite level tier one grade. TIER 1 Above Average = 8 (B+) Matthew Stafford, LA Rams The Rams have themselves a QB with elite-level potential. Stafford graded out as a tier-one above-average player for the lions in 2020. He threw for 4000 yards, 26 TD's and 10 INT's. Sean McVay will undoubtedly find ways to scheme large windows for Stafford to throw. That leads us to believe he has the opportunity to climb into the higher level of tier one QB's in 2021. TIER 1 Above Average = 8 (B+) Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings Captain Kirk, Mr. "You like that" falls into the tier one category with an average B+ grade. Some analysts and fans believe Kirk has underachieved, and there is an argument for that. But the numbers have been solid. In 2020, Cousins posted an elite level yard per drop back (7.5), with 4200 yards passing and a 35 TD to 13 INT ratio. Kirk was also 7th in on target throw rate. So why is he not considered level 1 or level 2 elite? It has to do with consistency. He started the strong season throwing just 3 INT's the first 8 weeks before throwing 10 INT's in the second half of 2020. TIER 1 Above Average = 8 (B+) Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders Derek Carr is arguably the most underappreciated QB in the NFL. I am guilty of believing he is not the answer for the Raiders, but the data and his onfield play say otherwise. According to our standards, Carr ranks among the top 10 best QB's in the game. He is considered a tier-one, level three above-average player. He threw for 4100 yards, 27 TD's and 9 INT's with a TE as his number one receiver in 2020. TIER 1 Above Average = 8 (B+) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan might not have an offensive line in 2021, but he has one heck of a group of receivers. Ryan threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD's and 11 INT's in 2020. At the very least, Ryan should be able to replicate his 2020 numbers. TIER 1 Above Average = 8 (B+) Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns Baker Mayfield, like Derek Carr, is very underappreciated. There is some argument to support the reasoning, but the one factor that is definitive in his grade is that he is a winner and a player who ascended as the year progressed in 2020. He played efficiently behind a strong run game posting 3500+ yards, 26 TD's to only 8 INT's. He was also very effective at throwing on the move. Mayfield should be able to replicate the same level of performance in 2021. TIER 1 Above Average = 8 (B+) Justin Herbert, LA Chargers Herbert took everyone by surprise in 2020, posting a near rookie record of 4300 yards. He did break the rookie pass TD record with 31, and he threw 10 INT's; 12 of his pass TD's came on explosive 20+ yard or longer plays in 2020 (4th). Herbert will have higher expectations in 2021. TIER 1 Above Average = 8 (B+) Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson has been amazing since arriving in the NFL, and he continues to wow with his ability as a runner, which is one of the reasons he is an above-average passer. Lamar's ability to stress a defense with his legs is currently unrivaled and every bit on par with Michael Vick. He is a highly graded rusher; he is also a top graded thrower posting a tier-one above average grade. Lamar threw for 2700 yards, with 26 TD's to 9 INT's. The Ravens added some fantastic WR's in this year's draft that I believe will help Lamar improve. Lamar ranked 26th in on target passer rate in 2020, right behind Tom Brady.

We are getting closer and closer to real football again and that means that it is time to start the player rankings conversations. Today we examine individual rushing grades using our new individual player grade system that we developed in recent months. Click here to go to our 2021 NFL Offseason Guide How the Grade System Works The Football Scout 365 process and philosophy are predicated on the connection between advanced metrics and on-field play. The numbers can sometimes tell a different story than the film and that is where our situational analysis plays a pivotal role in how we interpret individual and team performance. You can view the full player and team grade process by clicking here. Individual Player Grades For Current NFL Players Below you will see a list of color-coded tiers followed by a descending grade scale. The grading scale is a 1-10 model with 10 being elite, and <3 as poor to very poor. The grading scale uses variables based on each player's positional focus and uses particularly advanced metrics such as pressure rate and sacks for pass rushers. Each tier carries an average value based on various data points, including the previous season's data. Our rankings are not an indictment of one's career and are more of a projection-based tier system used to identify current players' potential ceilings or floors. Tier 1 Elite Level, MVP Potential 1 = 10 (A+) Good Level 2, All Pro Level = 9 (A-) Above Average Level 3, Pro Bowl Caliber = 8 (B+) Tier 2 Average Starter Level 1, Starter, Role Player = 7 (B-) Below Average, Can be Boom Or Bust = 6 (C+) Developmental Player = 5 (C-) Tier 3 Poor= 4 (D+) Very Poor = <3 D- Depth or Replacements Needed 2021 Preseason Tier One Level NFL Individual Player Rushing Grades and Rankings Tier One, Level One, Elite Level, All-Pro, MVP Level Talent TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Derrick Henry , Tennessee Titans Derrick Henry's workout videos are all the craze this offseason which is good reason to believe he is focused on remaining the top pure RB in the NFL in 2021. Henry rushed for 2000+ (1st) yds on 378 attempts (1st), averaging 5.4 yards per tote. Henry played at an MVP level in 2020; he will look to continue that trend in 2021. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Lamar Jackson , Baltimore Ravens Arguably the best player in the NFL with the ball in his hands, Lamar Jackson is one of, if not the most dynamic, football players we have ever seen. My pet peeve is to place your top athlete behind center regardless of throwing ability because of the pressure it adds to a defense (yes, I know that this is more of a college or high school mindset). His running ability opens larger windows in the passing game, and that is why he grades out as Football Scout 365's 2nd best rusher. Already a top 15 passer, Jackson led the NFL in yards per rush att (6.3), forced missed tackles, and ranked number two to Kyler Murray in first down run rate. Jackson rushed for another 1000 yards in 2020, and there is no reason he cannot duplicate that in 2021. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Kyler Murray , Arizona Cardinals Insane to believe that the NFL has evolved into a league where two QB's are in the top three of the NFL's leading rushers. Like Lamar Jackson, Murray had a tremendous sophomore campaign in Arizona where he rushed for 822 yards and 6.2 yards per rush attempt (2nd). He ranked 1st in the NFL in first downs converted with his legs in 2020. Murray possesses more accuracy as a passer than Lamar Jackson, but his durability due to his smaller size is a big concern. He did great avoiding contact in 2020; if he can continue to stay upright, he can ascend into top 5 passer and rusher status moving forward. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Dalvin Cook , Minnesota Vikings The 2nd ranked RB according to the Football Scout 365 grading scale, Dalvin Cook, when healthy, could climb to number one. He possesses great ability both inside and outside of the tackles. He can run behind his pads or make you miss in the open field. Cook averaged 3.3 yards after contact (10th), ranked 10th in forced missed tackle rate, and ranked 7th in 1st down run rate. Cook ranked 2nd in the league in total rush yards and averaged 5 yards per attempt while running behind a below-average offensive line. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Nick Chubb , Cleveland Browns Nick Chubb, like Derrick Henry, is among the few pure RB's in the NFL. Chubb is one of the best inside and outside runners; he can run behind his pads or make defenders miss. His speed is world-class for a RB of his size. A season ago, our expectation was new Head Coach Kevin Stefanski would use the run game to open the play-action pass, which is what he did. Nick Chubb was a big-time factor in Cleveland's ability to execute the intended scheme. Chubb hit the 1000 yard mark in 2020; he did miss a few games in 2020, and if not injured, he paced 253 carries which would have been the 4th highest, and at 5.6 yards per att, he could have amassed 1400 rush yards, on par with our 2020 projection. Regardless, Chubb is part of a dynamic one-two punch in Cleveland and is the key to the success of the Browns offense in 2021. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Saquon Barkley , New York Giants Barkley has been among the top 5 best RB's in the NFL since his final year at Penn State. The 1st recipient of our highest grade for a rookie player with Jerry Jeudy, who graded out as the next surest thing to enter the NFL, Barkley didn't waste time making a name for himself as a dynamic runner and pass catcher. His injury in 2020 has not deflated our belief that he is a top-five RB. If he can play an entire season in 2021, he could enter top 3 status. Those who are concerned about his ACL injury need not worry. His rehab, according to sources, is on schedule for a week one return, but he does not need to rush back into the lineup with Devontae Booker there to back him up; Barkley could take his time early in 2021 to assure a full recovery. Our early look at 2021 projections shows the potential for 1100 yards on the ground, 700 as a receiver with 15 total TD's. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) Christian McCaffrey , Carolina Panthers This man strategically ate a lot of chili bowls along with cool ranch Doritos and Oreos in the offseason before his historic 2019 season. Do not try this at home; you will get fat unless you are working out relentlessly throughout your day. Like Barkley and Kamara, CMC is what the NFL RB has evolved into, a dynamic runner with explosive playmaking ability who can line up all over your formation as a pass-catcher. Like the evolution of the QB position where players are more dynamic with their legs, having a RB like CMC can also add stress to a defense. CMC is in an offense that fits his skillset even more than in 2019. Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, a Sean Payton disciple, will be creative in his usage with CMC, and before his injury, CMC's usage was on pace for 400 total touches. Early ceiling-based projections for 2021, 250 rush attempts for 1150 yards, and 100 receptions for an additional 900 yards. Tier One, Level Two, All-Pro Level Talent, High Upside TIER 1 Level 2 Good =9 (A-) Ezekiel Elliott , Dallas Cowboys Feed this dude; he is always hungry. Zeke is in the same stylistic RB tier as both Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. His powerful rushing style is where he makes his hay. Zeke's production dropped off in a significant way a season ago. His 2018 and 2019 production ranked atop the NFL, but in 2020 he watched his total yards, yards per attempt, and yards after contact drop. The COwboys were injury-riddled on the OL, and the loss of Dak Prescott added additional pressure on Zeke to carry the load. Zeke possesses a top 3 RB ceiling in 2021. TIER 1 Level 2 Good =9 (A-) Alvin Kamara , New Orleans Saints Kamara has not rushed for 1000 yards as a rusher. His 932 rush yards in 2020 are his best since entering the league. He averaged 5 yards per attempt while scoring 16 TD's on the ground. His ability as a receiver is where he has proven to be an elite-level RB. But since we are grading based on rushing ability, Kamara proved that he can be a high-level runner a season ago. He ranked 2nd among NFL RB's in first down run rate. We believe that his usage will increase in the run game in 2021 as the offense evolves to life without Drew Brees. Kamara has not eclipsed 200 rush attempts in his career, we believe he will finally clear 200 attempts in 2021. Early projections for Kamara have his rush attempts at a ceiling of 220, with a rush yards ceiling of 1100 yards. That would be a huge jump for a guy who has been an 800 rush yards, 800 receiving yards type of player. If he hits the projected ceiling, he will enter the level one elite rusher tier. TIER 1 Level 2 Good =9 (A-) Aaron Jones , Green Bay Packers One of two critical Aarons in Green Bay, this Aaron signed a deal to remain a Packer while the other is looking to jump ship. Jones is a very good RB while paired with a hall of fame caliber QB in Aaron Rodgers. Jones might see a dip in his rush totals without Rodgers, but that's not due to his ability as a runner. Jones produced the league's 4th highest rush yards total (1100+) at 5.5 yards per attempt (4th). TIER 1 Good =9 (A-) Ronald Jones , Tampa Bay Buccaneers I make jokes about Ronald Jones and his running style. I often say that if he finds an opening, he might avoid it to make contact on purpose. Jones is a deceptively fast player who can turn on the jets once he enters the 2nd and third levels of a defense. His vision improved lt season, and a lot of that had to do with the OL's improvement in the run game. In 14 games, Jones compiled 978 yards rushing and 5.1 yards per attempt. He averaged just under 14 rush att per game in 2020, and had he played the full 16 games; he would have surpassed 1000 rush yards. As mentioned above, Jones is a yards after contact savant; he averaged 3.7 yards after contact in 2020 (3rd). TIER 1 Level 2 Good =9 (A-) Jonathon Taylor , Indianapolis Colts Jonathon Taylor and JK Dobbins were the top rookie RB's entering the 2020 NFL season, according to the Football Scout 365 NFL draft big board. Taylor took a little time to establish himself in an offense "tailor" made for his style. In the first ten weeks of the 2020 season, Taylor averaged 51 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. Placed on the covid list in week 11, Taylor returned to finish the remaining five games averaging 130 rush yards and 6.4 yards per rush attempt. Taylor rose from a poor level to an elite level payer late in the season, and that is what you are looking for out of an elite-level talent like Jonathon Taylor. Tier One, Level Three, Above Average Level 3, Pro Bowl Caliber TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) J.K. Dobbins , Baltimore Ravens J.K. all day (Gus Johnson reference). Dobbins was not the full-time player for the Ravens in 2020 that he was while at Ohio State, but he flashed his ability as the season progressed. Before the 2020 NFL draft, we highlighted that Dobbins has a knack of showing up big when the lights shine bright a nd he did the same as a rookie for the Ravens, who were clearly looking for an Ingram replacement. Dobbins rushed for 800 yards and averaged elite level yards per attempt (6.0), leading all NFL RB's in 2020. Dobbins is known as a good stretch zone style RB, and it showed in 2020. His ability to improve his rushing between the tackles will be paramount. J.K. Dobbins average 3.6 yards per rush between tackles in 2020, vs. 7.2 yds per rush outside of the tackles. The Ravens will have a one, two, three punch of Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins with Lamar Jackson in 2021. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) Chris Carson , Seattle Seahawks Chris Carson, I remember his fumbles being a massive issue; he has cleaned up the problem with his fumbles. His health is also a big question mark. But when healthy, Carson plays a significant role in the Seahawk's ability to use play-action. Russell Wilson's passer rating (107.0) in games with Chris Carson at RB (45 total games) is 10 points higher (97.4) than games without Carson. Whatever you want to believe about the significance of analytics in sports, the passer rating is a very good indicator of offensive efficiency. Carson being available makes the Seahawk's offense a lot more efficient. In 2020, Carson played in 12 games. He averaged 4.8 yards per run and amassed 680 yards on the ground with five TD's. Carson was on pace to amass 900 rush yards. When healthy, he is a 1000 yard rusher who is solid in pass pro. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) James Robinson , Jacksonville Jaguars Out of left field is where James Robinson entered the 2020 season. Some scouts recognized the talents of Robinson early. I did not get the opportunity to evaluate Robinson until after he was drafted. It became apparent that he possesses high-level vision as a runner and the receiving chops needed in today's NFL. His 4.64 forty might have been the defining factor in his stock falling in the 2020 draft. Robinson proved to be a bell cow for the Jags in 2020, where he picked up 1000 yards on 4.5 yards per attempt. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) Antonio Gibson , Washington FT The three-down back in the NFL has to be a good receiver. Gibson proved he could play that three-down role in 2020. As a rusher, he amassed 795 yards, 4.7 yards per attempt. He has 1000 yards potential as a runner in 2021 in a backfield where he should be the lead man. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) Melvin Gordon , Denver Broncos Melvin Gordon has competition that could easily unseat him as the starter with the Broncos drafting rookie RB Javonte Williams from North Carolina. If Gordon is the starter come September in Denver, he should maintain his current status in tier one, level three of the Football Scout 365 NFL player grades. We might be looking at the last season where Gordon is in this tier as we expect he may regress in the coming years, but he still has enough in the tank to remain at the bottom of the top tier of NFL RB's. Gordon fell just shy of eclipsing the 1000 yard barrier in 2020. He averaged 4.7 yards per rush attempt. If Gordon loses his projected lead back status to Javonte Williams in 2021, we might see Williams in or above this tier post-2021.

We are getting closer and closer to real football again and that means that it is time to start the player rankings conversations. Today we examine individual receiving grades using our new individual player grade system that we developed in recent months. Click here to go to our 2021 NFL Offseason Guide How the Grade System Works The Football Scout 365 process and philosophy are predicated on the connection between advanced metrics and on-field play. The numbers can sometimes tell a different story than the film and that is where our situational analysis plays a pivotal role in how we interpret individual and team performance. You can view the full player and team grade process by clicking here. Individual Player Grades For Current NFL Players Below you will see a list of color-coded tiers followed by a descending grade scale. The grading scale is a 1-10 model with 10 being elite, and <3 as poor to very poor. The grading scale uses variables based on each player's positional focus and uses particularly advanced metrics such as pressure rate and sacks for pass rushers. Each tier carries an average value based on the previous season's data. Tier 1 Elite Level, MVP Potential 1 = 10 (A+) Good Level 2, All Pro Level = 9 (A-) Above Average Level 3, Pro Bowl Caliber = 8 (B+) Tier 2 Average Starter Level 1, Starter, Role Player = 7 (B-) Below Average, Can be Boom Or Bust = 6 (C+) Developmental Player = 5 (C-) Tier 3 Poor= 4 (D+) Very Poor = <3 D- Depth or Replacements Needed 2021 Preseason Tier One Level NFL Individual Player Receiving Grades and Rankings Tier One, Level One, Elite Level, All-Pro, MVP Level Talent TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) WR DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals Hopkins is a dominant possession receiver, and it was on full display in 2020 with the Cardinals. The clear number one receiver in the Cardinals offense a season ago. Hopkins dropped one pass in 2020 and is the definition of a 50/50 ball style WR who won literally 50% of his contested pass-catching attempts a season ago. The rapport with Kyler Murray will continue to improve, so he will continue to be a consistent force moving forward. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) WR Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers With Deandre Hopkins considered our top receiver, Adams is our 1B. Adams's route running ability, combined with the rapport he has with Aaron Rodgers, is the perfect recipe for a player who arguably could have won NFL MVP in 2020. Adams, by the numbers, is the top WR in the NFL vs. press-man coverage. Adams played in 14 games in 2020; he picked up 1374 yards as a receiver and scored 18 touchdowns. Had he played a full 16, he was on pace to hit 1570 yards receiving and score 20+ TD's. We do not know how the Aaron Rodgers situation will play out, but the odds are high that Adams will be catching balls in 2021 from a new QB in Green Bay. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills Stefon Diggs took a giant leap from above-average to the elite level in one season after moving from the Vikings to the Bills in 2020. Paired with Josh Allen, who is also an ascending star, Diggs has the potential to remain in the elite tier moving forward. Diggs led the NFL in targets (127) and yards (1535) in 2020. He has the potential once again to lead the NFL in both categories in 2021, especially if NFL teams decide to play man to man as consistently as they did in 2020 (top 5 rate). TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) WR Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs Tyreek Hill's dominance as a serious threat who can get behind a team's secondary is like no other. Combined with Patrick Mahomes, who has arguably the strongest arm in the NFL, defenses struggle to find ways to contain Hill. He has improved as a route runner since arriving in the NFL, and that is another reason we have him rated higher than many other outlets. Hill snagged 87 balls for 1274 yards in 2020. There is a possibility that without Sammy Watkins now in the fold, his usage will increase in 2021. We believe Hill could have his best year yet in the NFL. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears Allen Robinson will enter the 2021 NFL season with a potential rookie at QB. That rookie is Justin Fields, and we can say with confidence that Fields will be the most accurate QB that Robinson has been paired with since arriving in the league. If we are correct about our projections that Justin Fields is an instant impact player at the next level, Robinson's production has the potential to skyrocket in 2021. Robinson is a player who uses his body well in traffic to make contested catches. Robinson is also an elite chain mover; he accounted for 52% of the Bear's total first downs by WR's in 2020. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) WR Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons Atlanta has had some excellent WR's the last few seasons, and the one player who is ready to take that top spot in the ATL is Calvin Ridley. In 2020, Ridley took the next step to Elite level. He reeled in 1374 yards and 9 TD's on 143 targets. He ranked atop the NFL in air yards before reception and 15th in average depth of target. Ridley win's with route running and is very good at the intermediate level. He also led the NFL in deep ball receptions in 2020. We expect Ridley to continue his rise; he is considered to be one of the elite graded WR's headed into the 2021 NFL season. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings The Vikings struck gold after losing Stefon Diggs to the Bills. Paired with Kirk Cousins and another high-level WR in Adam Thielen, Jefferson took the NFL by storm, breaking the rookie WR record for receiving yards in a season (Super Bowl Era) with 1400. He passed the likes of Randy Moss and former record holder Anquan Boldin. Jefferson was rarely utilized the first two games of the 2020 season, making his rookie season even more incredible. Jefferson has the chops as a receiver; he proved he could dominate vs. man coverage, an area that many scouts questioned when he entered the NFL. Jefferson might not hit the same numbers in year two, and that is okay, but we fully expect him to remain at or near the top five of NFL receivers for years to come. TIER 1 Level 1 Elite = 10 (A+) WR Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce is the top TE in the NFL, and he is so good that he ranks among the top WR's in the NFL. Kelce Ranked 2nd in the NFL in total yards in 2020 (1416), he scored the 5th most TD's, led the league in total first downs among WR's and ranked 3rd in yards after the catch. (Throws hands in the air screaming rabble, rabble TE among WR's rabble, rabble) Tier One, Level Two, All-Pro Level Talent, High Upside TIER 1 Level 2 Good = 9 (A-) WR A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans A.J. Brown is a player on the rise in 2021. In 2020, he amassed nearly 1100 yards on 70 receptions. He tied for 10th in the NFL in yards per target with 10.1. Brown is the definition of a yards after the catch savant who averaged 6.1 yards after the catch in 2020, ranking 6th among WR's with at least 50 targets. His ability to be physically dominant against DB's in the NFL in his first two seasons gives us reason to believe he will only continue to ascend. TIER 1 Level 2 Good = 9 (A-) WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones is what A.J. Brown wants to be, and Julio Jones is arguably the most physically imposing WR in the NFL outside of D.K. Metcalf. Jones remains highly regarded even at 32 years old because he continues to show consistency. Jones wants out of Atlanta and may only have a few more high-level years remaining as a WR in the NFL. We expect Jones will remain in this tier in 2021. TIER 1 Level 2 Good = 9 (A-) WR D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks Climbing up the charts like a BillBoard top 100 hit, Metcalf has all of the potential to enter the elite level in 2021. His 1300 yards receiving ranked 7th in the NFL in 2020. Among WR's with at least 100 targets, Metcalf ranked 2nd to Calvin Ridley in average depth of target (13.7). Metcalf is a physical player with incredible deep-ball ability. The areas where Metcalf needs to improve, route running at the short and intermediate levels and limiting drops; once he improves in both, he will undoubtedly leap into the elite status. TIER 1 Level 2 Good = 9 (A-) WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks Tyler Lockett is an underrated player who wins with route running and speed. The combo of Lockett and Russell Wilson have formed the most efficient duo of passer and catcher in the NFL the last three seasons. In 2020, Wilson had a top-five passer rating when targeting Tyler Lockett. It does help when you have an athletic freak opposite of you at WR in D.K. Metcalf, but there is no doubt who the go-to WR has been in Seattle the last three seasons. TIER 1 Level 2 Good = 9 (A-) WR Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys Since he arrived in Dallas, Cooper has been a consistent force in the Cowboy's offense. Cooper win's with route running, and even without Dak for most of the 2020 season, Cooper managed to amass 1114 yards and 5 TD's. His 413 yards after the catch ranked 20th in the NFL. With Dak returning in 2021, Cooper is poised to have another great year. TIER 1 Level 2 Good = 9 (A-) WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team McLaurin is possibly the most technically sound young WR in the NFL. A good route runner who can get consistent separation and who boasts 4.3 speed. McLaurin posted 1100 yards in 2020 while working with sub-par QB play. His ceiling is absolutely in the elite tier, and he has an opportunity to prove that with Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fold in 2021. The area where McLaurin will likely see an increase in 2021 will be his average depth of target. His ADOT dropped from 2019 (14.0) to 2020 (9.7). TIER 1 Level 2 Good = 9 (A-) WR Keenan Allen, LA Chargers One of our pet peeves when grading a receiver is their route-running ability. Keenan is a folk hero for route running and a player that receiver coaches use as a gold standard when teaching the young'ins how to get elite-level separation. Allen was targeted at the 5th highest rate in 2020. He is consistently one of the highest targeted WR's in the league. Allen catches a lot of passes underneath or with a low depth of target. His yards per target ranked 109th in the NFL in 2020 (6.7), but no receiver converted more first downs after the catch than Keenan Allen in 2020. Allen posted the lowest yards per target number since his 2nd year in the league. The Chargers used Allen less as an intermediate and deep route runner in 2020 than other years, so with a new headman and OC at the helm and a young, fearless, strong-armed Justin Herbert, we expect to see these numbers increase during the 2021 NFL season. TIER 1 Level 2 Good = 9 (A-) WR Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders Our 2nd highest-graded TE is also among the best receivers in the NFL. Like Travis Kelce, Waller led his team in targets, receptions, yards, yards after the catch, and TD's. Waller is among the best in the league in almost every statistical category. His 145 targets tied for 6th with Travis Kelce, his 107 receptions are 4th best, and two catches ahead of Kelce. His 1196 yards rank 11th, and his yards after the catch (you guessed it) ranked 4th right behind Travis Kelce in 2020 with 572. Waller still has room to grow as a player and should remain the top target for the Raiders in 2021. Tier One, Level Three, Above Average Level 3, Pro Bowl Caliber TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin entered the 2020 season as a player who had elite-level WR written all over him with Tom Brady as his QB. He did not hit the elite level overall but did show why we believe he can reach the elite level of tier one. His route running ability is high-level, and his slot prowess is exactly what Tom Brady needs. Godwin still managed to post 800+ yards on 84 targets while playing in only 12 games. If he can stay healthy in 2021, he will likely be Tom Brady's favorite target. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers When Brady needed to find a target inside the opponent's 10-yard line in 2020, he looked for Mike Evans. In 2020, Evans ranked 2nd only to Davante Adams in targets from or within the opponent's 10 with 14 total targets. Evans would snag 9 of those 14 targets, and all nine were for TD's. Evans managed to crack 1000 yards as a receiver in 2020 while surrounded by Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) WR Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings Slowing with age, Thielen did not get the same kind of separation on a per route basis that he has been accustomed to in years prior. Still, Thielen played extremely well when faced with man-to-man coverage due to his route running ability. Thielen did not crack the 1000 yard barrier in 2020, and his best years might be behind him, but we believe he has enough in the tank to produce a few more top-level seasons. In 2020, among all receivers with at least 100 targets, Thielen posted the 6th best QBR when targeted. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) WR D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers In 2020, Teddy Bridgewater ranked near the league's bottom in air yards per attempt average (7.1), leaving a lot to be desired from a WR in D.J. Moore to be desired. Moore himself still managed to rank in the top ten of average depth of target among WR's with at least 75 targets. Moore was also a consistent mover of the chains converting a first down on 45% of his targets in 2020. In comes QB Sam Darnold, a player who boasts a strong arm. The potential for Moore to take the next step is in the cards, and a lot will ride on how much Sammy D can improve under OC Joe Brady. D.J. Moore's standing in the top tier is based more on the projectible upside than recent accolades, and he must clean up his issues with drops (7). We believe Moore has the tools to be an elite-level WR. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) WR Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers In 2020, there was a lot of debate about who was the top WR in the Carolina offense between Anderson and D.J. Moore. Anderson made a solid case in 2020, posting 1096 yards, of which 45% of those total yards came after the catch for Anderson. Like D.J. Moore, Anderson had a high number of drops in 2020 (6). With his former Jet teammate Sam Darnold in Carolina, Anderson might have the inside track to more production. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers George Kittle managed to play in 8 games in 2020, and had he remained healthy; he was on pace to amass 1250+ receiving yards. Kittle is a physical player who, unlike Kelce, plays a more traditional inline version of the TE position. In 2019, Kittle cracked 1000 yards; he picked up 53 first downs as a receiver while still only playing 14 regular-season games. Kittles health in 2021 will determine whether or not he should remain within the top tier of receivers moving forward. Still, his overall ability and what we believe he projects to become is why he remains in the top tier of receivers. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers The number one rated RB among the top WR's is none other than Christian McCaffrey. CMC was hurt in 2020, but no one can argue against the fact that if CMC remained healthy in 2020, he would have been among the league's best receivers. In 2019, he capped a fantastic season as both a runner and a receiver, where he picked up 1005 yards as a receiver, 4 TD's, and ranked 10th, converting 58 first downs as a receiver. His 8.8 yards after the catch ranked 6th among all receivers in 2019. If he remains healthy in 2021, he will be a part of an offense built around his skill set, even more so than in 2019 under current OC Joe Brady. TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average = 8 (B+) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints Like CMC, Kamara is a dynamite receiver out of the backfield. Kamara became the leader of the Saints offense in stretches where they were without both WR Michael Thomas and QB Drew Brees. Kamara was great as a runner and extremely efficient as a receiver, where he picked up 756 yards and 5 TD's. His league is leading 8.8 yards after the catch. Kamara also led the NFL in forced missed tackle rate (77%) as a receiver a rate 40% pts higher than the next closest player. His ceiling is the sky, maybe beyond that.