Search Results

The 2017 Michigan football team finished 8-5 and did not beat a single team with a winning record. They were dominated on the road at Penn State, lost to Wisconsin on the road, and were defeated by Ohio State at home. Michigan started three different QBs due to injuries. The Michigan Defense was the only real consistent positive that would keep Michigan from a complete collapse. In 2018 the Wolverines have lost to Notre Dame (Still Undefeated) on the road by 7 and recovered to now win 7 in a row including a blowout win over the Wisconsin Badgers, and these past weekends win on the road against #24 in the Ap Michigan State. The Wolverines find themselves in control of their destiny in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten East after Ohio State was embarrassed on the road at Purdue on Saturday night. The situational analysis comparison tool allows us to take a look at the improvements made by the Michigan football team year over year. Michigan's 2018 offense through 8 games against the 2017 Michigan offense in 2017. 1st down conversion rate through the air and on the ground: One of the critical pain points for Michigan in 2017 was their inability to sustain drives. In 2017 the Wolverines total first down conversion rate was 28% on through the air and 22% on the ground, in 2018 they have improved this number to 35% +7% through the air and 25% +3% on the ground. Third down conversion rate: Michigans 3rd down conversion rate in 2017 through the air saw a 29% success rate at 5.45 yards per play, on the ground they converted 36% with a 2.1 yard per play avg. In 2018 they have improved in both areas converting 31% of their attempts for 5.21 yards per play while converting 63% of their third down runs for 4.89 yards per pop. This is a major sign of how much Michigan has stayed ahead of the chains allowing for more diverse play calling on third down. Michigan already has ten more run plays in 8 games of 1-3 yds (37) on third down than all of 2017 combined (27). Red Zone: Michigan has had a few issues int he red zone that are similar to the problems that plagued them in 2017, and this is an area that they must improve. 8% of their Ints in 2018 have been in the red zone compared to the 3% total from 2017. The Points per opportunity is double in 2018 (162%) compared to 2017's 81% total. Michigan is scoring when they reach the red area two times as many points in 2018 than 2017. When leading by 1-7 points or 8-14 points: When up by 1-7 points Michigan leans on their run game by a 46 to 24 ratio at 6.63 yards per rush attempt scoring 23.92 total points or 52% points per opportunity in 2018. In 2017 the Wolverines run-pass ration when up 1-7 points 103 to 77 with a 5.53 yards per rush attempt with a 35% points per opportunity rate on the ground. The 1 yard per carrying and the 17% points per opportunity increase can be credited to the new offensive line and strength and conditioning coach. Michigan has long wanted to line up with a lead and lean on their run game to wear defenses down late in games, and so far the coaching changes appear to have paid off for Michigan in 2018.

Michigan Offense v. Michigan State Defense Click here for full screen view Michigan State Offense v. Michigan Defense Click here for full screen view

The 2018 Michigan offense has been somewhat predictable through the first half of the season and rightfully so considering Michigan began the 2018 season with arguably the most difficult schedule in college football opening on the road against Notre Dame, before facing a few sleepy cupcakes Western Michigan, SMU, Nebraska whom they dispatched boringly by not showing their hand. Michigan would get another shot on the road before the schedule ascends playing in an awkward pseudo primetime (430pm) kickoff against the Northwestern Wildcats on Fox. Once again the Wolverines found themselves in familiar territory against an opponent on the road. The Wolverines started slow and found themselves facing a 17 point deficit in the first quarter. Michigan did not panic and change their game script instead they continued to use the run to set up the pass. They would eventually slog through and erase the deficit winning and more importantly finishing off a tough opponent on the road in primetime. Michigan used nearly every minute of the final three quarters finally taking their first lead of the game 20-17, and that's how the game would end. When Michigan opened on the road in South Bend against Notre Dame, they battled back from a deficit and had a shot in the games final minutes to possibly win and the narrative that has plagued Michigan over the last three years continued, they were unable to finish off an opponent. The matchup against Wisconsin would be the next big test for both the Michigan offense and the Michigan defense. The Badgers have always been a football program who plays slow, physical, and methodical football. The Wolverines defense had to matchup against one of the nations top RB's Jonathon Taylor while the offense would face a defense that plays physical at the point of attack making it essential for Michigan to be able to move the line of scrimmage. In previous weeks Michigan dominated lesser opponents at the point of attack while struggling on the road against Notre Dame and Northwestern. In order for Michigan to erase the narrative that has plagued them in recent years they would have to dominate a top opponent in the trenches on both sides of the football in order to prove they are a legitimate top ten football program and a playoff contender. The Setup Every week I chart one of the top college football games using the Football Scout 365 BGA (Big Game Analysis) scouting tool. This week I recognized something that Michigan has been holding back for obvious reasons (their daunting schedule), and that is the QB run option using outside zone. Every week Michigan has run the zone read and on approximately 90% of those plays the QB gives the ball even when there is an apparent opening for the QB to keep and go. Whether this was by design to preserve the QB (Shea Patterson) from absorbing too many hits, or Patterson who is a dual-threat QB by nature just forgot how to run the Zone read all together, I am going bet the farm this was by design to set up future opponents. Michigan lined up in a pistol formation with the Y (TE) on the line tipping the defense that the play is strong left. Michigan added an additional TE (HB) who is lined up behind the outside of the RT. Michigan also has twins to the right of the formation. Wisconsin is lined up in their base 34 (3-4 or 3 down lineman, 4 Linebackers). The defensive ends are playing inside technique (4i) on both sides with the Outside linebackers Will, and Sam both playing both playing at a 5 technique. The middle linebackers are both shading the two A gaps. Offensive blocking responsibilities: Inside Zone/ HB Wham/with Arc Y: Combo block down with LT on the RE release to LB's LT: Combo block down on RE with the Y LG: Combo block with the C on the nose release to second level C: Combo block the N with the assistance from the LG RG: Man block LE RT: Man Block the Will HB: Wham block/With Arc Visual of what I just word vomited above. QB/RB: Reads the Sam, if the Sam bites on the inside give to the TB, QB keeps and goes outside. The play call was perfect as Michigan had spent the entirety of the 1st QTR running into a wall of Wisconsin defenders in the middle of the defense. The Badgers were aligned to defend the middle gaps with outside support coming from the Sam and Will backers. Now remember the situation, it is 1st and 10, and we just began the 2nd QTR after the long TV timeout, there is no better time than now to become contrarian. Our Football Scout 365 Situational Analysis for this matchup shows that out of a total of 391 total offensive plays, Michigan ran the ball 117 times on first down against 56 passes. Michigan also ran the ball 20 out of 35 total attempts from within their own 20-yard line with a 7.9 yds per run avg. Wisconsin is prepared for the run based on their alignment and what their analytics is telling them, Michigan will run the ball but its the subtlest change of tendency that would allow Michigan to take advantage of the moment. The key to the success of this play for the offense is where the LB's are looking post snap when Shea Patterson and Kiran Higdon are meeting at the mesh. The defense sells out overplaying the inside zone give to Kiran Higdon, especially the Sam and the Strong Safety who vacate the entirety of the field on Pattersons left side. If Patterson Pulls the ball and runs, the play will go for big yardage, but if he gives it up its a tackle for loss. You also notice that the HB (TE 84) completely bypasses the incoming Sam linebacker moving up field into an arc block on the safety. The beauty of this play is that it is also a staple of the Ohio State offense. The Buckeyes run a wham design similar to this play and it has been their bread and butter for years under Urban Meyer. In summary, I can conclude that this play was set up by previous run tendencies in past games and in the first QTR of this game when Michigan was running right into the middle of the Wisconsin defense. The timing of the play call helped to set up the big play opportunity for Michigan. The Wolverines can run a lot more off of this one play including RPO (Run Pass Option) in the future, and I fully expect them to develop this further leading up to the Ohio State game. It was RPO's, and Zone read plays that undid the Buckeyes in Columbus a year ago against Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma, and it is apparent that Jim Harbaugh has recognized this and understands that to win the big games his offense must be more aggressive. Summary Discussion: Michigan made wholesale changes to their coaching staff after last seasons 8-5 finish. Jim Harbaugh fired his longtime friend, best man and Offensive Coordinator Tim Drevno who has been on the staff since Jim Arrived in 2015. Drevno was also the Michigan Offensive Line Coach who many of the Michigan faithful were calling to fired after last years disastrous offensive line play that led to three QB's being knocked out of games due to poor pass blocking. Harbaugh had also cited poor team strength and conditioning following Michigans loss to South Carolina in the 2018 Outback Bowl. Harbaugh spoke to the media about how the team needed to get stronger and more physical to finish off opponents. Harbaugh followed that comment up by firing the longtime strength coach that had been with him at both Stanford and in the NFL with The 49ers. JJim Harbaugh would replace Tim Drevno with former Ohio State Offense Line Coach Ed Warinner who coached the Offensive Line when the Buckeyes ran through, over and around the Michigan defense in 2015 using the same Wham design used above against Wisconsin. The Michigan Offensive line mauled the Badger defense wearing them down throughout the game. Michigan had three touchdown drives where they did not attempt a single pass. Warinner is also the likely culprit behind the above set up play we, and this says a lot about the collaborative effort that Jim Harbaugh alludes to when asked about who calls the plays for the Michigan offense. It is apparent that all of the offensive coaches have a hand in the design of the offense and this allows Michigan to be more versatile than in recent years. The next piece of the puzzle would be a new strength and conditioning coach that fit what Jim Harbaugh came to Michigan to incorporate. Harbaugh went out and hired former Wisconsin, and Arkansas strength coach Ben Herbert. Herbert was brought into Michigan to change the culture of the strength program, and to instil a more physical approach on both sides of the football. This hire has paid dividends starting with the Notre Dame game where Michigan trailed throughout the game, but instead of folding late, Michigan had shown they are more conditioned than in recent years as they fought back and had a chance to win the game late. The Northwestern game was also a testament to the new strength coach when Michigan trailed by 17 points and fought back eventually wearing the Northwestern defense down and taking over the game late. Unlike the Notre Dame game, Michigan finally finished a game on the road when trailing. More importantly, Michigan trailed by 17 points, the largest come from behind deficit faced by a Harbaugh coached Michigan team in which Michigan was able to win. The Wisconsin game is another major testament that things are trending in the right direction as Michigan overpowered Wisconsin for three straight quarters. Ben Herbert was awarded the game ball because of this championship effort. The final piece of the puzzle for Michigan would be Harbaugh being able to sway Shea Patterson to transfer to Michigan. He met with Patterson in Oxford Mississippi last December to discuss the opportunity. Patterson would be the final piece of the puzzle and is precisely what Jim Harbaugh needed to transform his offense. Why am I pointing this out? Michigans 38-13 win against Wisconsin is a culmination of multiple variables coming together. Not just the setup play, but the coordinated effort of the Michigan coaching staff working together to build something special in Ann Arbor. It would have been much more comfortable for Harbaugh to keep his old staff together and stay the course, but it was Harbaughs willingness to make changes to his staff that has led the Wolverines to a 6-1 start in 2018. Time will tell if the payoff will be more immediate than expected as the schedule only gets more difficult for the Wolverines.

FS365 has combined the Simple Rating System that is produced weekly by Pro Football Reference with our Simple Efficiency Analysis. Our goal is to connect the Simple Rating System (SRS) and Simple Efficiency Analysis (SEA) to evaluate total team strength better while also comparing these ratings to what the Vegas Oddsmakers are predicting. The SRS analysis provides a baseline ranking for each team allowing us to compare and contrast all teams against popular analysis such as the College Football Playoff Poll, AP Poll, or for NFL teams; we can compare to differentiating power ranking analysis provided by the mainstream pundits. Key: SRS: Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/ below average, where zero is average. OSRS: The offensive component of the Simple Rating System (SRS), a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. DSRS: The defensive component of the Simple Rating System (SRS), a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. SOS: The strength of Schedule; a rating of strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Non-major opponents are included as a single team in the ratings. MOV: Margin of victory Click here to view full screen SRS and Efficiency Stats *Please note that the SRS system is meant to be used for entertainment purposes only and is just one data point out of many that can provide insights about potential outcomes. Football Scout 365 does not guarantee any result based on our analysis. Remember, there is a human element involved, and we do not recommend using this tool for gambling purposes.

Stats Key 1st Dwn Conv Rate- First downs gained against the total number of attempts. Int Rate- Total Int. accrued against the total number of attempts. Pts Per Opportunity- Total points scored measured against the total number of attempts. BPO- Big Play Opportunity is a measure using the total number of plays of ten yards or more against the total number of attempts. Shea Patterson v. Wisconsin Def Click here for full page view Alex Hornibrook v. Michigan Defense Click here for full page view

Michigan Offense v. Wisconsin Defense Click here for full screen view Wisconsin Offense v. Michigan Defense Click here for full screen view

FS365 has combined the Simple Rating System that is produced weekly by Pro Football Reference with our Simple Efficiency Analysis. Our goal is to connect the Simple Rating System (SRS) and Simple Efficiency Analysis (SEA) to evaluate total team strength better while also comparing these ratings to what the Vegas Oddsmakers are predicting. The SRS analysis provides a baseline ranking for each team allowing us to compare and contrast all teams against popular analysis such as the College Football Playoff Poll, AP Poll, or for NFL teams; we can compare to differentiating power ranking analysis provided by the mainstream pundits. Key: SRS: Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/ below average, where zero is average. OSRS: The offensive component of the Simple Rating System (SRS), a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. DSRS: The defensive component of the Simple Rating System (SRS), a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. SOS: The strength of Schedule; a rating of strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Non-major opponents are included as a single team in the ratings. Click here to open a full page view. *Please note that the SRS system is meant to be used for entertainment purposes only and is just one data point out of many that can provide insights into potential outcomes. Football Scout 365 does not guarantee any result based on our analysis. Remember, there is a human element involved, and we do not recommend using this tool for gambling purposes.

FS365 has combined the Simple Rating System that is produced weekly by Pro Football Reference with our Simple Efficiency Analysis. Our goal is to connect the Simple Rating System (SRS) and Simple Efficiency Analysis (SEA) to evaluate total team strength better while also comparing these ratings to what the Vegas Oddsmakers are predicting. The SRS analysis provides a baseline ranking for each team allowing us to compare and contrast all teams against popular analysis such as the College Football Playoff Poll, AP Poll, or for NFL teams; we can compare to differentiating power ranking analysis provided by the mainstream pundits. Key: SRS: Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/ below average, where zero is average. OSRS: The offensive component of the Simple Rating System (SRS), a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. DSRS: The defensive component of the Simple Rating System (SRS), a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. SOS: The strength of Schedule; a rating of strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Non-major opponents are included as a single team in the ratings. MOV: Margin of victory SRS NFL Power Rankings Featured SRS and SEA Matchups of the week This week we are featuring two games, Pittsbugh v. Atlanta, and Kansas City v. Jacksonville. PIT v. KC SRS Home Offense v. Away Defense Total Efficiency Comparison Home Defense v. Away Offense Total Efficiency Comparison KC v. JAC SRS Home Offense v. Away Defense Total Efficiency Comparison Home Defense v. Away Offense Total Efficiency Comparison *Please note that the SRS system is meant to be used for entertainment purposes only and is just one data point out of many that can provide insights about potential outcomes. Football Scout 365 does not guarantee any result based on our analysis. Remember, there is a human element involved, and we do not recommend using this tool for gambling purposes.

Stats Key 1st Dwn Conv Rate- First downs gained against the total number of attempts. Int Rate- Total Int. accrued against the total number of attempts. Pts Per Opportunity- Total points scored measured against the total number of attempts. BPO- Big Play Opportunity is a measure using the total number of plays of ten yards or more against the total number of attempts. LSU Offense v. Florida Defense Florida Offense v. LSU Defense

Introducing the first FS365 edition of the Simple Rating system combined with our Simple Efficiency Analysis. Beginning this week and continuing to the end of the football season we are going to test this system for accuracy. The goal of this analysis is to combine the Simple Rating System and Total Efficiency analysis and use both to evaluate total team strength and compare these ratings to the to the Vegas odds and other mainstream analysis. For college football, we can compare this system to the AP poll and playoff committee polls when they are released. Key: SRS: Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. OSRS: The offensive component of the Simple Rating System (SRS), a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. DSRS: The defensive component of the Simple Rating System (SRS), a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. SOS: Strength of Schedule; a rating of strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Non-major opponents are included as a single team in the ratings. SRS Top 10 Rankings Top 10 notes: The SRS top ten of college football has some surprises within the top 5. The biggest surprise is Notre Dame who faces Virginia Tech on the road this week. If Notre Dame wins tonight, they are in the driver's seat toward the college football playoff. Three SEC teams in the top 5, with Oklahoma sitting on the outside of the top 4. LSU faces Florida on the road this afternoon and is our featured matchup of the week. Featured SRS and SEA Matchup of the week: Florida v. LSU According to SRS, LSU is 11.08 pts better than Florida, or 8.08 points better if you give Florida 3 points for home field advantage. The Vegas odds have LSU by 2 points. Therefore, the SRS implies that LSU will more than cover the 2 points on the road. Home Offense v. Away Defense Total Efficiency Comparison Home Defense v. Away Offense Total Efficiency Comparison Potential Upset Alert SRS and SEA Matchup of the week: Michigan v. Maryland According to SRS, Michigan is a 10.65 pt favorite, or 13.65 if you add 3 points for home field advantage. The Vegas odds have Michigan as a 17.5 point favorite. Maryland is a sneaky pick to cover. Home Offense v. Away Defense Total Efficiency Comparison Home Defense v. Away Offense Total Efficiency Comparison *Please note that the SRS system is meant to be used for entertainment purposes only and is just one data point out of many that can provide insights about potential outcomes. Football Scout 365 does not guarantee any result based on our analysis. Remember, there is a human element involved, and we do not recommend using this tool for gambling purposes.

https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/odds

Stats Key 1st Dwn Conv Rate- First downs gained against the total number of attempts. Int Rate- Total Int. accrued against the total number of attempts. Pts Per Opportunity- Total points scored measured against the total number of attempts. BPO- Big Play Opportunity is a measure using the total number of plays of ten yards or more against the total number of attempts. Penn State Offense v. Ohio State Defense Ohio State Offense v Penn State Defense