2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings: Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson Headline A Weak QB Class

The 2026 NFL Draft quarterback rankings are the defining storyline of this cycle. Beyond Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, many evaluators are already turning their attention to 2027. The depth is limited, and there isn’t a surplus of plug-and-play Day 1 starters — but there is legitimate developmental upside embedded within this group.

QB1 is clear: Fernando Mendoza. A Heisman winner and precision-based pocket passer, he wins with anticipation, layered accuracy, and advanced processing speed. His timing, command, and subtle pocket movement project cleanly to a pro-style system, and some scouts view him as the safest quarterback in the class.

Behind Mendoza, the QB2 conversation will likely center on Alabama’s Ty Simpson and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier as the NFL Combine unfolds. Simpson brings mechanical consistency and starter-level tools but requires patience and structure. Nussmeier offers gunslinger confidence and arm talent, with week-to-week consistency and durability shaping his ultimate ceiling. This isn’t a generational quarterback group — it’s a projection-heavy class built on development, scheme fit, and long-term upside.

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2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings

1). Fernando Mendoza, 6’5”, 225 lbs, Indiana

Grade Tier: Near Elite

NFL Projection: Top 5 Overall Pick

Analysis: Elite anticipation and layered accuracy define Mendoza’s profile. He wins from the pocket with advanced processing speed, calm progression work, and red-zone efficiency. While he lacks rare arm talent or high-end off-script creation, his timing, decision-making, and structure-based command give him one of the highest floors in the class. A rhythm-based offense built on protection and timing maximizes his ceiling.

2). Ty Simpson, 6’2”, 208 lbs, Alabama

Grade Tier: High-End Starter Potential

NFL Projection: Late 1st – 2nd Round

Analysis: Mechanical consistency and tempo-based processing anchor Simpson’s projection. He operates comfortably in structure with good risk management and functional mobility. However, average arm strength and uneven deep-ball timing create projection variance. His ceiling depends on improved anticipation and stronger pocket command against pressure-heavy NFL looks.

3). Garrett Nussmeier, 6’2”, 200 lbs, LSU

Grade Tier: Mid-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 2nd–3rd Round

Analysis: Aggressive mentality and timing confidence define Nussmeier’s game. He attacks intermediate and vertical windows with conviction and shows natural layering ability when protected. Under pressure, his mechanics and decision-making can unravel, and durability questions linger. He profiles as a system-dependent starter or high-level backup in a timing-based offense.

4). Carson Beck, 6’4”, 220 lbs, Miami

Grade Tier: Low-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 3rd–4th Round

Analysis: Experience and structure-based command drive Beck’s projection. He distributes efficiently in rhythm and manages the offense like a point guard when protected. Limited mobility and average arm velocity cap his ceiling, and pressure consistently exposes mechanical breakdowns. Best suited for a timing-heavy West Coast structure.

5). Drew Allar, 6’5”, 240 lbs, Penn State

Grade Tier: Low-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 3rd–4th Round

Analysis: Rare arm strength and prototype size fuel Allar’s upside. At his best, he drives throws to all levels with NFL-caliber velocity. However, inconsistent pocket feel and deteriorating mechanics under pressure create boom-or-bust volatility. His development curve will determine whether he becomes a starter or remains a traits-based backup.

6). Cole Payton, 6’3”, 233 lbs, North Dakota State

Grade Tier: Low-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 4th–5th Round

Analysis: Dual-threat ability and structured accuracy highlight Payton’s projection. He brings legitimate RPO and play-action value with plus athleticism and poise for a first-year starter. Processing against rotating coverage and limited deep-drive velocity remain developmental hurdles. High-upside backup with starter traits if refined.

7). Luke Altmyer, 6’2”, 205 lbs, Illinois

Grade Tier: Low-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 5th Round

Analysis: Competitive temperament and rhythm passing anchor Altmyer’s outlook. He operates efficiently in structure and shows workable anticipation in the intermediate game. However, limited velocity and pressure-based mechanical breakdowns cap his ceiling. Projects as a developmental QB2 with spot-start potential.

8). Diego Pavia, 5’10”, 207 lbs, Vanderbilt

Grade Tier: Low-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 5th–6th Round

Analysis: Improvisational toughness and off-script playmaking define Pavia’s profile. He thrives in chaos and extends plays with mobility and competitive edge. Size, arm strength, and deep-ball trajectory limit long-term projection, making him a scheme-dependent developmental option.

9). Cade Klubnik, 6’2”, 210 lbs, Clemson

Grade Tier: Low-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 6th Round

Analysis: Timing, touch, and mobility within structure shape Klubnik’s projection. He delivers a catchable football and executes movement-based concepts efficiently. However, limited drive velocity and inconsistent post-snap processing restrict his ceiling to developmental backup territory.

10). Miller Moss, 6’2”, 205 lbs, USC

Grade Tier: Low-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 6th–7th Round

Analysis: Quick release and short-to-intermediate precision define Moss’s game. He operates cleanly in play-action and quick-game concepts but lacks boundary velocity and explosive downfield ability. Projects as a system-dependent QB2 in a timing-heavy offense.

11). Joe Fagnano, 6’4”, 225 lbs, Connecticut

Grade Tier: Not NFL Level

NFL Projection: Priority Free Agent

Analysis: Experience and ball security headline Fagnano’s profile, but limited arm talent, elongated mechanics, and poor pressure response restrict his NFL ceiling. Projects as a camp arm rather than a long-term roster piece.

How We Grade the Quarterback Position

Quarterbacks are evaluated primarily on processing speed, accuracy, and the ability to create sustainable offensive efficiency from the pocket. Grades are driven by how consistently a passer can diagnose coverage pre- and post-snap, operate within structure, and deliver the football on time and in rhythm. In today’s NFL, winning from the pocket remains the foundation — off-script ability is a bonus, not the baseline.

Key factors include anticipation, ball placement at all three levels, pressure response, and third-down conversion ability. We heavily weigh pocket movement, internal clock discipline, turnover-worthy play rate, and command at the line of scrimmage. Arm strength and mobility matter, but decision-making consistency, coverage identification, and situational awareness carry the most weight. The highest-graded quarterbacks are those who elevate the structure around them rather than relying solely on athletic traits or scheme manufacturing.

Football Scout 365 Grade Scale

Elite

NFL Projection: Top 5–10 Picks (1st Round)

Franchise-altering talent with elite physical tools, advanced processing, and minimal weaknesses. Immediate high-impact starter with difference-making ability.

Near Elite

NFL Projection: Mid-to-Late 1st Round

High-level prospect with strong traits and football intelligence. Expected to become a major contributor early in their career with Pro Bowl upside.

High-End Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 2nd–3rd Round

Projects as a quality NFL starter with strong tools and functional traits. May require refinement, but offers consistent impact with development.

Mid-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 4th–5th Round

Dependable starter or high-end rotational player. Solid athletic profile with some limitations that cap ceiling or require scheme fit.

Low-Level Starter Potential

NFL Projection: 6th–7th Round

Developmental prospect with starter upside in defined roles. Inconsistencies in technique, processing, or durability limit long-term ceiling.

Backup Level

NFL Projection: Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA)

Depth player or rotational piece. Functional traits but limited upside for a long-term starting role.

Not NFL Level

NFL Projection: Unlikely to Make NFL Roster

Significant developmental needs across athleticism, technique, or processing. Long-shot to stick at the NFL level.