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  • 2024 NFL Draft: Ranking Our Top Graded Interior Defensive Lineman (IDL) Led by Byron Murphy II

    The 2024 NFL Draft stands out as one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, especially within the defensive line category. This depth and talent reflect the increasing significance of the interior defensive line in both college football and the NFL. A prime example of this trend is Justin Madubuike of the Baltimore Ravens, who recently inked a four-year, $98 million contract, underscoring the high value placed on versatile defensive linemen. Madubuike's ability to disrupt from various positions along the defensive front, especially from the A and B gaps, showcases his explosive first-step quickness and robust knockback power, essential for collapsing pockets. Moreover, his prowess in run defense, capable of filling gaps and directing runners wide, further elevates his profile. This rising importance is mirrored by the career of the recently retired Aaron Donald, a unique talent who defied size expectations to become one of the NFL's most dynamic defensive forces. The top 5 pass rushers in the NFL from the 2023 NFL season, according to PFF Chris Jones - 15 sacks, 91 pressures Aaron Donald - 10 sacks, 86 pressures Justin Madubuike - 15 sacks, 77 pressures Ed Oliver - 11 sacks, 72 pressures Quinnen Williams - 6 sacks, 70 pressures The average annual salary of each player's most recent contract, according to Spotrac The average annual combined salary of the top 5 current NFL defensive linemen, according to overall pressures in 2023, is $23M. Chris Jones - $32M Aaron Donald - $32M Justin Madubuike - $25M Ed Oliver - $17M Quinnen Williams - $8M The 2024 defensive line draft class is replete with players offering the kind of versatility NFL GMs and scouts are looking for. This analysis will dive into the defensive linemen I've evaluated, ranking them according to their overall grade as determined by the Football Scout 365 grading process. How We Scout The Interior Defensive Line Positions Scouting the interior defensive line position in the NFL requires evaluating a player's size, strength, athleticism, and technique. Below is a list of critical components we use to grade the IDL position during the NFL Draft process. Every IDL receives a grade on a scale of 1-10 for each of the below components during the scouting process. Once each player component is graded, we attach a final grade to indicate where the player stands before entering the NFL Draft, and then we attach a ceiling grade based on future potential. Here are some key factors to consider when scouting an interior defensive lineman: Size and Strength: An interior defensive lineman needs to have size and strength to hold their ground against powerful offensive linemen. This includes their ability to generate power at the point of attack, maintain leverage, and shed blocks. Athleticism: An interior defensive lineman needs to be athletic enough to move well and adjust to the speed and quickness of ball carriers. This includes their ability to move laterally, recover quickly, and execute proper footwork and hand placement. Pass Rushing Ability: An interior defensive lineman needs to be able to get to the quarterback and disrupt the passing game. This includes their ability to generate pressure, penetrate the offensive line, and use a variety of pass-rushing techniques. Run Stopping Ability: An interior defensive lineman needs to stop the run and limit the yardage gained by ball carriers. This includes their ability to maintain gap control, stuff the run, and pursue ball carriers. Technique: An interior defensive lineman must have good technique to execute their assignments effectively. This includes their ability to use their hands and feet effectively to engage and shed blockers, maintain leverage, and finish tackles. Football IQ: An interior defensive lineman's football intelligence is important to make quick decisions and adjustments on the field. This includes their ability to recognize offensive formations, diagnose plays, and communicate with their teammates. Durability: An interior defensive lineman's durability is important, as they will be taking a lot of hits on the field. This includes their ability to stay healthy and recover quickly from injuries. When scouting an interior defensive lineman, it's important to evaluate all of these factors and the player's overall performance on the field. It's also important to consider the team's specific needs and whether the interior defensive lineman's skills and attributes match the team's defensive system and style of play. Additionally, it's important to consider the interior defensive lineman's penalties and mental mistakes, as these can be a liability for the defense. Football Scout 365's Top 11 Graded Defensive Lineman In the 2024 NFL Draft The following analysis incorporates Football Scout 365 NFL Draft player grades, detailing each player's career total snaps and alignment throughout their collegiate careers. Utilizing a blend of film review and data analysis, we've assessed each player's play style and how they might adapt to the NFL, considering their college performance. This evaluation helps in identifying the most suitable NFL position for each player, based on their skill set and potential to transition effectively from college to the NFL. Byron Murphy II - Texas Longhorns Height/Weight: 6'1", 308 lbs Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Level Potential Draft Projection: mid-first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: A+ Run Defense Grade: B+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech: 408 3 Tech: 694 4 Tech: 16 Edge: 5 Off Ball: 5 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: IDL in a 4-3 Scheme Byron Murphy II from the Texas Longhorns excels with a mix of power and aggression, making significant impacts, especially in run defense, through his play disruption at the line. His above-average agility, coupled with standout strength and explosiveness, positions him perfectly for 4-3 defensive schemes where run stopping and interior pocket pressure are key. Murphy’s top-tier pass rush grade and solid run defense capability showcase his potential to significantly influence the game from the interior. Highlighted by his effectiveness in passing situations, Murphy is set to offer near-elite contributions in the NFL. 2). Jer'Zhan Newton - Illinois Fighting Illini Height/Weight: 6'2", 295 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Draft Projection: 1st round, picks 20-32 Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: A Run Defense Grade: B+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech: 129 3 Tech: 725 4 Tech: 16 Edge: 26 Off Ball: 15 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: 3-Tech in Hybrid Fronts Jer'Zhan Newton's explosive athleticism and refined hand technique earmark him as a dynamic defensive playmaker, ideally positioned as a 3-tech in modern, versatile schemes. Despite size constraints, Newton's agility and technical prowess, particularly effective in run defense and pushing the pocket, highlight his potential to impact the NFL significantly. With further development in pass-rush strategy and leverage, Newton possesses the raw tools to reach Pro Bowl or even All-Pro status, making him a highly regarded prospect for teams looking for interior defensive line agility and penetration ability. 3). Braden Fiske - Florida State Seminoles Height/Weight: 6'5", 300 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Draft Projection: Early to mid 2nd round Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: B Run Defense Grade: C Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech: 264 3 Tech: 1060 4 Tech: 81 Edge: 244 Off Ball: 3 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: 3-Tech in a 4-3 Defense Braden Fiske stands out as an interior pass rusher in a 4-3 defense, where his speed and explosiveness disrupt quarterbacks effectively. To evolve into a more comprehensive three-down player, Fiske must bolster his run defense. His natural pad level and agility, combined with active hands, make him a menace in the pass rush, though his effectiveness against the run is hampered by his physical dimensions. Fiske would excel in a zone-blocking scheme that leverages his mobility and skill in open space. 4). Ruke Orhorhoro - Clemson Tigers Height/Weight: 6'4", 295 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Draft Projection: Late round two, early round three Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: C+ Run Defense Grade: B+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech: 314 3 Tech: 874 4 Tech: 133 Edge: 72 Off Ball: 6 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Defensive End in a 3-4 Scheme Ruke Orhorhoro's versatility and power make him a formidable force across the defensive line, from the edge to the interior. Excelling in run stoppage and capable of applying quarterback pressure through a bullish approach, Orhorhoro fits seamlessly into a base 3-4 defense as an end. His athleticism allows him to adapt across various defensive formations, indicating his high-end starter potential in the NFL, particularly for teams prioritizing a mix of run defense and pass rush versatility. 5). Kris Jenkins - Michigan Wolverines Height/Weight: 6'3", 305 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Draft Projection: Mid 2nd round, early round three Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: C Run Defense Grade: A- Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech: 12 3 Tech: 560 4 Tech: 418 Edge: 126 Off Ball: 13 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Nose Tackle/Defensive Tackle in a 3-4/4-3 Scheme Kris Jenkins brings a robust presence to the defensive line, thriving primarily in run-stopping roles. His strength allows him to stand firm against double teams, making him a crucial asset for 3-4 schemes as a nose tackle or in a 4-3 alignment as a defensive tackle. Jenkins' ability to disrupt the running game and push the pocket makes him notable, though he would benefit from refining his pass-rushing techniques. Jenkins' skill set suggests he might face challenges in schemes requiring extensive pass rush moves but stands out as a valuable player in defenses focusing on run stoppage and pocket disruption. 6). Michael Hall Jr. - Ohio State Buckeyes Height/Weight: 6'2", 280 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Draft Projection: 3rd Round Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: A Run Defense Grade: C+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech (A Gap): 58 3 Tech (B Gap): 544 4 Tech (Over Tackle): 81 Edge (Outside Tackle): 28 Off Ball: 3 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: 3-Tech in Even Fronts Michael Hall Jr. brings a compelling combination of initial explosiveness, power, and agility to the Ohio State defensive line, making him especially effective as a 3-technique. His ability to leverage his burst and length into disruptive force positions him well for modern defenses that value quickness and technical skill over size. While there's room for improvement in rush balance, hand placement, and expanding his pass-rush moves, Hall Jr.'s natural fit in one-gap principles focusing on agility and speed to generate disruption marks him as a high-end starter with the potential to ascend to Pro Bowl or All-Pro levels with further refinement. 7). T'Vondre Sweat - Texas Longhorns Height/Weight: 6'4", 362 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Draft Projection: Mid 2nd round, early round three Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: A Run Defense Grade: A+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech (A Gap): 177 3 Tech (B Gap): 941 4 Tech (Over Tackle): 132 Edge (Outside Tackle): 25 Off Ball: 7 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Interior Defensive Line T'Vondre Sweat stands out as a potent run-stopper, perfectly fitting into NFL schemes that prioritize run defense. His control over blockers and significant impact on the run game point to his potential as a foundational piece in a defensive line rotation, especially in early downs. While his pass rush and agility present areas for growth, improvements in technique and conditioning could elevate his role to a versatile, three-down lineman, enhancing his overall impact on the defensive front. 8). Leonard Taylor III - Miami Hurricanes Height/Weight: 6'3", 305 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Draft Projection: 4th Round Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: A Run Defense Grade: C+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech (A Gap): 221 3 Tech (B Gap): 575 4 Tech (Over Tackle): 61 Edge (Outside Tackle): 7 Off Ball: 5 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: 3-Tech in Even Fronts Leonard Taylor III showcases impressive strength and pass-rushing skills, making him particularly effective as a 3-technique in even fronts. His frame and strength contribute to his ability to disrupt plays, though consistency in pad level could further enhance his effectiveness against double teams and in bull rushes. Taylor's adaptability and skills set him up as a high-impact player on the defensive line with the potential for significant growth and contribution in various defensive schemes. 9). Brandon Dorlus - Oregon Ducks Height/Weight: 6'3", 290 lbs Ceiling Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential Draft Projection: 3rd Round Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: B+ Run Defense Grade: B Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech (A Gap): 36 3 Tech (B Gap): 693 4 Tech (Over Tackle): 502 Edge (Outside Tackle): 659 Off Ball: 13 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Defensive Lineman (3-Tech/Edge) Brandon Dorlus is recognized for his versatility on the defensive line, effectively playing both on the edge and inside. His technique and power are his standout attributes, especially against the run. Dorlus's ability to adapt to different roles within the defensive front makes him a valuable asset, particularly in schemes that value versatility and technique over outright speed. 10). Mekhi Wingo - LSU Tigers Height/Weight: 6'1", 295 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Draft Projection: 4th Round Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: B Run Defense Grade: B+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech (A Gap): 140 3 Tech (B Gap): 1120 4 Tech (Over Tackle): 284 Edge (Outside Tackle): 88 Off Ball: 10 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: 3-Tech in Even Fronts Mekhi Wingo's speed, agility, and quick lateral block handling make him an ideal fit as a 3-technique in even fronts. Despite his smaller size, his first-step quickness and effectiveness against the pass set him apart, fitting well into schemes that prioritize quick, penetrating defensive tackles. Wingo's ability to disrupt from the interior positions him as a high-end starter with significant potential to impact the pass and run game alike. 11). Maason Smith - LSU Tigers Height/Weight: 6'6", 315 lbs Ceiling Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential Draft Projection: 3rd Round Performance Grades: Pass Rush Grade: B+ Run Defense Grade: D+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): 1 Tech (A Gap): 58 3 Tech (B Gap): 596 4 Tech (Over Tackle): 125 Edge (Outside Tackle): 164 Off Ball: 5 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Interior Defensive Line (4i/5-Tech) Maason Smith's imposing size, power, and explosiveness earmark him as a versatile and highly coveted asset across various NFL defensive schemes. His capacity to play multiple roles along the defensive front, from interior positions to the edge, increases his value significantly. Smith's length and strength allow him to effectively convert speed to power, posing a challenge to offensive tackles. Although his lateral agility and double-team management need improvement, Smith's foundational skills in pass rush and ability to disrupt plays highlight him as a potential top pick among interior defenders in the upcoming NFL Draft. His athleticism and toolkit for the pass rush position him for a strong career with the potential for considerable growth and impact in the right defensive system.

  • 2024 NFL Draft: Our Top 10 Graded Offensive Tackles Led By Joe Alt

    The 2024 NFL Draft's offensive line class is remarkably deep and talented. For those in search of versatility, this year's draft is particularly rich. According to our evaluations at Football Scout 365, the top 10 offensive tackles are ranked within the top 100 on our Big Board. In this analysis, we dive deeper into each player's run-blocking and pass-blocking capabilities, as well as their scheme fit. We'll also look at their career snap totals based on their career alignment usage in college. This approach aims to offer a detailed perspective on each prospect's versatility and their projected roles on an NFL offensive line. How We Scout The Offensive Tackle Position Scouting the tackle position in the NFL requires evaluating a player's size, athleticism, technique, and versatility. Below is a list of critical components we use to grade the OT position during the NFL Draft process. Every OT receives a grade on a scale of 1-10 for each of the below components during the scouting process. Once each player component is graded, we attach a final grade to indicate where the player stands before entering the NFL Draft, and then we attach a ceiling grade based on future potential. Here are some key factors to consider when scouting a tackle: Size and Strength: A tackle must have the strength to hold their ground against powerful defensive linemen. This includes their ability to generate power at the point of attack, maintain leverage, and finish blocks. Athleticism: A tackle needs to be athletic enough to move well and adjust to the speed and quickness of pass rushers. This includes their ability to move laterally, recover quickly, and execute proper footwork and hand placement. Pass Protection: A tackle needs to be able to pass protect effectively. This includes their ability to anchor against bull rushes, slide their feet to maintain balance, and use their hands and arms to keep defenders away from the quarterback. Run Blocking: A tackle needs to be able to execute a variety of run-blocking techniques, including drive blocking, zone blocking, and pulling. This includes their ability to identify their blocking assignments, maintain proper pad level, and create running lanes for the ball carrier. Versatility: A tackle needs to be versatile enough to play on either side of the offensive line and in different offensive systems and schemes. This includes their ability to execute different blocking techniques, adjust to different quarterback cadences, and work effectively with different offensive linemen. Football IQ: A tackle's football intelligence is important to make quick decisions and adjustments on the field. This includes recognizing defensive fronts, communicating with their teammates, and adjusting their blocking assignments as necessary. Durability: A tackle's durability is essential, as they will be taking a lot of hits on the field. This includes their ability to stay healthy and recover quickly from injuries. When scouting a tackle, it's important to evaluate all of these factors and the player's overall performance on the field. It's also important to consider the team's specific needs and whether the tackle's skills and attributes match the team's offensive system and style of play. Additionally, it's important to consider the tackle's penalties and mental mistakes, as these can be a liability for the offense. 2024 NFL Draft Top 10 Offensive Tackle Rankings 1). Joe Alt - Notre Dame Fighting Irish Height/Weight: 6'7", 318 lbs Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Level Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: B+ Pass Block Grade: A- Zone Grade: A- Gap Grade: B+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 2178 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Left Tackle Joe Alt distinguishes himself with a rare blend of size, athleticism, and technical prowess, positioning him as a prime candidate for a franchise left tackle role in the NFL. His notable performance in both pass protection and run blocking, particularly in zone schemes, underscores his adaptability and technical refinement. Alt's mobility and skill at engaging second-level defenders make him a versatile asset, especially for teams utilizing zone-based schemes. His recovery balance and ability to maintain equilibrium highlight a player ready for the challenges of the NFL, offering near-elite potential. 2). Olumuyiwa Fashanu - Penn State Nittany Lions Height/Weight: 6'6", 308 lbs Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Level Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: C- Pass Block Grade: B+ Zone Grade: C- Gap Grade: C- Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 1347 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Left Tackle Fashanu exemplifies the prototypical left tackle with his blend of size, strength, and agility, making him a formidable force in pass protection. His athleticism facilitates effectiveness in space, aligning with his fit for mobility-valuing schemes. Fashanu’s comprehensive skill set, from mirroring pass rushers to engaging effectively in the run game, coupled with his high motor, presents him as a valuable asset in zone-blocking schemes, promising near-elite potential in the NFL. 3). Taliese Fuaga - Oregon State Beavers Height/Weight: 6'6", 333 lbs Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Level Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: A- Pass Block Grade: B- Zone Grade: A- Gap Grade: C+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 0 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 1564 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Right Tackle Fuaga is characterized by his dominating presence and physicality in the run game, showcasing a powerful mean streak and quickness for effective zone and play-action schemes. While pass protection may need refinement, his strength and ability to engage second-level defenders signal a versatile fit across the offensive line. His skill set, especially in run blocking, makes him a foundational piece for teams prioritizing a powerful run game, offering near-elite potential with versatility to play both guard and tackle positions. 4). Amarius Mims - Georgia Bulldogs Height/Weight: 6'7", 340 lbs Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Level Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: C- Pass Block Grade: B- Zone Grade: C- Gap Grade: C Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 0 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 801 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Right Tackle/Left Tackle Versatility Mims stands out with exceptional size and agility, making him a force in both the run game and pass protection. His agility and quick footwork, paired with effective defender engagement, fit well in zone-blocking schemes, maximizing his movement skills. While offering the versatility for various positions, Mims is particularly suited for schemes that leverage his strengths in space, underlining his value for teams seeking a flexible and dynamic offensive lineman with near-elite potential. 5). JC Latham - Alabama Crimson Tide Height/Weight: 6'6", 326 lbs Ceiling Grade: High End Starter Level Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: B- Pass Block Grade: B- Zone Grade: B Gap Grade: C- Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 0 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 135 RT: 1748 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Right Tackle Latham embodies the prototypical offensive tackle with the requisite size, strength, and athleticism. His quickness and powerful hands enable him to excel in pass protection and provide significant upside in the run game. Fitting well in both zone and power run schemes, Latham's ability to move to the second level and engage linebackers showcases his versatility. Ideal for pass-heavy offenses, he offers high-end starter potential, especially for teams looking for a reliable tackle to protect the quarterback's blindside. 6). Troy Fautanu - Washington Huskies Height/Weight: 6'4", 317 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: C Pass Block Grade: A Zone Grade: C- Gap Grade: C- Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 1029 LG: 99 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 2 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Left Tackle Troy Fautanu showcases a combination of power and finesse that makes him an adaptable tackle across various NFL schemes. Excelling in pass protection with an A grade, he leverages above-average hand placement and footwork to counter edge rushers effectively. While showing solid foundational skills in run blocking, Fautanu's proficiency can flourish in zone-blocking schemes, where his agility and block sustaining are key. Despite needing improvement in zone and gap blocking consistency, his physicality and finishing ability could also see him fit into power-run schemes. Fautanu stands out for his versatility and potential to become a high-end starter, especially within systems that value technical prowess and adaptability. 7). Tyler Guyton - Oklahoma Sooners Height/Weight: 6'7", 327 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: C- Pass Block Grade: B Zone Grade: D Gap Grade: C Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 670 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 350 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Right Tackle Tyler Guyton's combination of towering stature and athleticism positions him as a compelling NFL prospect, particularly for schemes valuing tackle mobility. Despite a lower run block grade, his pass protection capabilities suggest he can safeguard the quarterback effectively. Best suited for zone-blocking schemes that can utilize his first-step quickness and range as a puller, Guyton’s potential in leveraging his mobility and recovery skills in space is significant. With development, especially in run blocking, Guyton could offer valuable versatility as a high-end starter with particular utility in athletic, agility-focused offensive lines. 8). Jordan Morgan - Arizona Wildcats Height/Weight: 6'6", 320 lbs Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: B Pass Block Grade: A- Zone Grade: B Gap Grade: C+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 2153 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Left Tackle Jordan Morgan's blend of size and athleticism makes him a versatile offensive tackle capable of excelling in both pass protection and run blocking. With a solid foundation in technique and an impressive ability to maintain pocket integrity, he’s well-suited for offensive schemes that prioritize a balanced attack. His adaptability and physical attributes suggest he could make a smooth transition to the NFL, where his skills could be further refined. Morgan's technique and performance across various blocking schemes indicate he has the potential to be a high-end starter, especially in systems that require both pass protection reliability and effective run blocking. 9). Kingsley Suamataia - BYU Cougars Height/Weight: 6'6", 325 lbs Ceiling Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: C Pass Block Grade: A Zone Grade: C Gap Grade: C Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 655 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 687 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Versatile Tackle Kingsley Suamataia stands out with significant reach and a strong base, crucial for his role as a formidable blocker. Excelling in pass protection with an A grade, his ability to handle fast edge rushers showcases his potential in the NFL. While his run blocking requires improvement, Suamataia's balance in game and notable hand placement skills allow him to maintain control against various defensive schemes. Best suited for zone and power run schemes thanks to his ability to anchor effectively and move to the second level, Suamataia's versatility could make him a valuable asset for teams looking for a tackle with the potential to improve and contribute significantly. 10). Kiran Amegadjie - Yale Bulldogs Height/Weight: 6'5", 318 lbs Ceiling Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: A Pass Block Grade: B+ Zone Grade: A Gap Grade: C+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 895 LG: 669 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Left Tackle Kiran Amegadjie showcases a dynamic mix of power and agility, making him an effective blocker in both the run game and pass protection. His ability to recover and maintain balance, even in awkward positions, highlights his versatility and adaptability to potentially fit multiple positions on the offensive line. Best suited for zone running schemes that can leverage his movement and space maneuvering, Amegadjie's also shown enough strength and patience to suggest he could adapt well to more power-oriented approaches. His blend of skills points to a player with the potential to become a valuable contributor in the NFL, fitting well into schemes that utilize his unique combination of mobility and power.

  • 2024 NFL Draft: Our Top 10 Graded Interior Offensive Lineman (IOL) Led by Jackson Powers-Johnson

    The 2024 NFL Draft's offensive line class is deep and as talented as they come. If you're looking for versatility, this draft has it in spades. According to our grading process, the top 10 interior offensive linemen are as follows. This year's rankings will include a more in-depth view of each player's individual run block grade, pass block grade, scheme fit grade, as well as their career snap totals and where they lined up on the offensive line in college. The aim of this analysis is to provide a comprehensive view of each prospect's versatility and their projected position on an NFL offensive line. How We Scout The Offensive Guard And Center Positions Scouting the offensive guard position in the NFL requires evaluating a player's strength, agility, and blocking ability. Below is a list of critical components we use to grade the IOL position during the NFL Draft process. Every IOL receives a grade on a scale of 1-10 for each of the below components during the scouting process. Once each player component is graded, we attach a final grade to indicate where the player stands before entering the NFL Draft, and then we attach a ceiling grade based on future potential. Here are some key factors to consider when scouting the interior offensive line: Size and Strength: An IOL needs to have size and strength to hold their ground against defensive linemen. This includes their ability to generate power at the point of attack, maintain leverage, and finish blocks. Run Blocking: An IOL needs to be able to execute a variety of run-blocking techniques, including drive blocking, zone blocking, and pulling. This includes their ability to identify their blocking assignments, maintain proper pad level, and create running lanes for the ball carrier. Pass Protection: An IOL needs to be able to pass protect effectively. This includes their ability to anchor against bull rushes, slide their feet to maintain balance, and pass off stunts and twists. Agility and Footwork: An IOL must have good agility and footwork to be effective in running and passing. This includes their ability to move laterally, pull and lead in the running game, and set their feet to engage defenders. Football IQ: An IOLs football intelligence is important in order to make quick decisions and adjustments on the field. This includes their ability to recognize defensive fronts, communicate with their teammates, and execute their blocking assignments. Durability: An IOLs durability is important, as they will be taking a lot of hits on the field. This includes their ability to stay healthy and recover quickly from injuries. 1). Jackson Powers-Johnson - Oregon Ducks Height/Weight: 6'3", 320 lbs Ceiling Grade: High End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: A Pass Block Grade: A+ Zone Grade: B Gap Grade: C Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 0 LG: 27 C: 893 RG: 430 RT: 5 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Center Showcasing exceptional athleticism and versatility at Oregon, Jackson Powers-Johnson, primarily serving as a center with 893 snaps, excels in a zone-based running scheme. His advanced footwork and lateral movement, combined with effective anchoring and intelligent hand use, make him ideal for dynamic ground games. His high football IQ and leadership point to a seamless fit for NFL teams valuing a versatile and strategic offensive line presence, promising early starter potential. 2). Graham Barton - Duke Height/Weight: 6'5", 311 lbs Ceiling Grade: High End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: B Pass Block Grade: B- Zone Grade: B- Gap Grade: C- Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 2134 LG: 0 C: 0 (Note: Played center in 2020, snap data unavailable) RG: 0 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Guard/Center Graham Barton's primary position at Duke was left tackle, accumulating 2134 snaps, showcasing his potential for a versatile role in the NFL. His proficiency in drive blocking and handwork, combined with agility for second-level plays, suggests readiness for interior positions. While gap blocking needs enhancement, his solid zone scheme performance and adaptability present him as a valuable asset for teams seeking versatile, technically proficient interior linemen. Barton's transition into guard/center roles could address arm length concerns, leveraging his dynamic offensive line skills for impactful NFL play. 3). Zach Frazier - West Virginia Mountaineers Height/Weight: 6'3", 310 lbs Ceiling Grade: High End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: B Pass Block Grade: B+ Zone Grade: C Gap Grade: B Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 0 LG: 0 C: 2583 RG: 0 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Center A formidable center at West Virginia, Zach Frazier leverages his wrestling background to dominate in gap schemes and provide reliable pass protection. His skills in controlling the line of scrimmage and understanding defensive schemes make him ideal for NFL teams focusing on power running games. Frazier's readiness to diagnose plays and adapt to NFL-level competition earmarks him as a high-end starter, especially in schemes prioritizing strength and technique at the point of attack. 4). Christian Mahogany - Boston College Eagles Height/Weight: 6'3", 322 lbs Ceiling Grade: High End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: B Pass Block Grade: A- Zone Grade: C Gap Grade: B+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 2 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 1532 RT: 32 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Guard Christian Mahogany's blend of power, technique, and athleticism has made him an effective weapon for Boston College, especially at right guard. His aggression and capability in moving to the second level highlight his readiness for NFL schemes that value physical dominance and versatility. Despite a need for enhancement in zone schemes, Mahogany's proficiency in gap blocking and overall adaptability present him as a high-end starter potential in the NFL. 5). Christian Haynes - Connecticut Huskies Height/Weight: 6'2", 313 lbs Ceiling Grade: High End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: A- Pass Block Grade: A Zone Grade: A+ Gap Grade: D+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 0 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 2423 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Guard Christian Haynes excels in wide zone blocking schemes, displaying significant technique and athleticism that allow him to effectively engage at the second level. Ideal for NFL teams emphasizing mobility and creative run schemes, Haynes' remarkable zone blocking and pass protection skills underscore his potential as a versatile and dynamic interior lineman. 6). Cooper Beebe - Kansas State Wildcats Height/Weight: 6'4", 322 lbs Ceiling Grade: High End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: B+ Pass Block Grade: A Zone Grade: B Gap Grade: B+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 774 LG: 1738 C: 0 RG: 25 RT: 103 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Guard Cooper Beebe's adaptability and strength have been key to his success at Kansas State, primarily in the left guard spot. Excelling in run blocking and pass protection, Beebe's versatility shines in both gap and power run schemes. His ability to pull and effectively climb to the second level makes him a formidable asset for NFL teams emphasizing physicality and versatility along the offensive line, aligning him with high-end starter potential. 7). Zak Zinter - Michigan Wolverines Height/Weight: 6'6", 334 lbs Ceiling Grade: High End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: C Pass Block Grade: C Zone Grade: C+ Gap Grade: C+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 1 LG: 0 C: 0 RG: 2297 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Guard Zak Zinter, with his prototypical guard size and noted toughness, has shown consistent performance at Michigan, primarily at the right guard position. His physicality and technique make him a good match for vertical run schemes, leveraging his strength to maximize engagement and block sustainment. While mobility may not be elite, Zinter's foundation allows effective block engagement. Best fitting in power run schemes, his capacity to move defenders and anchor against the pass rush, despite height-related leverage issues, points to a promising future as a high-end starter in the NFL, particularly for teams emphasizing strength and durability in their offensive strategy. 8). Sedrick Van Pran - Georgia Bulldogs Height/Weight: 6'4", 310 lbs Ceiling Grade: High End Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: B Pass Block Grade: B+ Zone Grade: B Gap Grade: C+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 0 LG: 0 C: 2721 RG: 0 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Center Sedrick Van Pran has emerged as a highly athletic and intelligent center for the Georgia Bulldogs, exclusively anchoring the position with 2721 snaps. His proficiency in both power/gap and zone blocking schemes is complemented by his quickness, making him effective in space and a perfect fit for NFL teams that value mobility and versatility on the offensive line. Van Pran's leadership and football IQ suggest he can seamlessly adapt to various offensive strategies, providing immediate value as a plug-and-play option in the NFL. His balanced performance across different blocking schemes presents him as a high-end starter with the versatility to enhance any offensive line configuration. 9). Mason McCormick - South Dakota State Jackrabbits Height/Weight: 6'4", 309 lbs Ceiling Grade: Mid Level Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: A+ Pass Block Grade: B+ Zone Grade: A+ Gap Grade: B+ Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 0 LG: 2726 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Guard Mason McCormick's dominance as a left guard is marked by his exceptional ability in run blocking and adaptability in zone schemes, demonstrated across 2726 snaps. His A+ grades in both run block and zone scheme areas highlight his proficiency in creating holes and displacing defenders, making him especially suited for teams that prioritize a versatile and dynamic ground game. McCormick's solid pass block performance (B+ grade) and capability across various blocking schemes underscore his readiness to contribute significantly at the NFL level. Ideal for offensive systems that value powerful, effective run blockers with the versatility to excel in multiple schemes, McCormick stands out as a high-potential prospect ready for the professional stage. 10). Trevor Keegan - Michigan Wolverines Height/Weight: 6'5", 310 lbs Ceiling Grade: Mid Level Starter Potential Performance Grades: Run Block Grade: D Pass Block Grade: B Zone Grade: D+ Gap Grade: D Snaps by Alignment (Total for All Years): LT: 35 LG: 2163 C: 0 RG: 0 RT: 0 NFL Scheme Fit Summary: Projected NFL Position: Guard Trevor Keegan has solidified his role primarily as a left guard within the Michigan Wolverines' offensive line, tallying 2163 snaps. His foundation in technique and physicality renders him a reliable option in the pass block (B grade), though his run blocking and scheme versatility require development. Suited for power/duo blocking schemes, Keegan's strengths can be maximized despite his limited athletic upside against dynamic interior pass rushers. His specific skill set positions him as a mid-level starter in the NFL, with potential for growth in a system that can leverage his existing strengths while addressing areas for improvement.

  • 2024 NFL Draft: Our Top 10 Graded TEs, Categorizing Play Style and Scheme Fit, Brock Bowers Leads The Way!

    The Evolution Of The Tight End Position The role of the tight end, traditionally seen as an extension of the offensive line with a focus on blocking, has evolved into a more versatile position that also demands excellence in receiving. In today's NFL, tight ends are showcased as primary targets, particularly in the short and intermediate passing game. Modern tight ends like Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce exemplify the expanded role of the TE position. The tight end position has become far more critical, and when you can find TEs with dual versatility as inline blockers who can also line up anywhere as a receiver to create a mismatch, you've hit the lottery. In the 2023 NFL Draft, two names that embodied this aspect were Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta. The 2024 NFL Draft will feature at least one potential elite talent at the tight end position in Brock Bowers, who possesses generational talent. Following him are several players with varying play styles and skill sets. Much like the 2023 tight-end draft class, there is a lot of potential. Several players have made a name for themselves throughout the NFL Combine and Pro Day process, including Penn State's Theo Johnson, Illinois's Tip Reiman, and Kansas State's Ben Sinnott, to name a few. Meanwhile, several more have been reviewed over and over through film and advanced data analysis and are starting to catch fire as of late, such as Iowa's Erick All and Florida State's Jaheim Bell. How We Scout The TE Position: Click here for a breakdown of our grade scale. In today's NFL, the Tight End position is more versatile than ever. Today's TE's at the highest levels are being utilized all over the formation as a receiver while providing inline blocking, similar to an offensive lineman in the run game and as a pass protector. NFL teams invested anywhere from 1% to 15% in cap space in 2022 toward their TE room. Below is a list of critical components we use to grade the TE position during the NFL Draft process. Every TE receives a grade on a scale of 1-10 for each of the below components during the scouting process. Once each player component is graded, we attach a final grade to indicate where the player stands before entering the NFL Draft, and then we attach a ceiling grade based on future potential. Scouting the tight end (TE) position in the NFL requires evaluating a player's versatility, athleticism, and blocking ability. Here are some key factors to consider when scouting a TE: Size and Speed Receiving Ability Route Running Blocking Ability Football IQ Durability When scouting a TE, it's important to evaluate all of these factors and the player's overall performance on the field. It's also important to consider the team's specific needs and whether the TE's skills and attributes match the team's offensive system and style of play. Examples Of The Three TE Types The Blocking TE Definition: A Blocking TE is primarily utilized for their skills in run blocking and pass protection. They line up next to the offensive linemen and are tasked with creating running lanes for running backs or providing extra protection for the quarterback. Example: AJ Barner is noted as a Blocking TE. In this role, his primary contribution comes from effectively blocking defensive players, contributing significantly to his team's running and passing plays by providing the necessary protection. The Receiving TE Definition: A Receiving TE is essentially a hybrid between a wide receiver and a traditional tight end, offering a size and speed mismatch against most defenders. Example: Ja'Tavion Sanders fits the description of a Receiving TE. Sanders is recognized for his receiving prowess, utilizing his route-running ability and hands to make significant contributions to the passing game, often becoming a favored target for quarterbacks looking to exploit mismatches in the defense. The Versatile, Blocky, Catchy TE Definition: The Versatile, Blocky, Catchy TE combines the best of both worlds: they are effective as both blockers and receivers. Example: Brock Bowers exemplifies a Versatile, Blocky, Catchy TE. Bowers' versatility allows him to be used in a variety of ways within an offense. He can stay in line to block, helping in the run game, or he can run routes and catch passes, showcasing his skills as a receiver. This makes him a dual threat that defenses must account for on every play. These categories highlight the strategic importance and versatility of the tight end position in modern football. Each type brings unique skills to the field, allowing offenses to be more creative and adaptable in their game planning. 2024 NFL Draft Tight End Player Grades and Rankings 1). Brock Bowers - Georgia (Versatile TE) Height/Weight: 6'4", 230 lbs Inline Usage: 45% Slot Usage: 55% ADoT: 6.5 YAC: 8.7 Cont. Catch Rate: 23% NFL Potential: Elite Player Comparison: George Kittle Current Draft Projection: Top 10 Pick NFL Teams Mocked: Chargers, Bengals, Jets Play Style/Scheme: Bowers' dynamic versatility and athleticism are hallmarks of his play, making him a dual threat as both a proficient pass catcher and a capable blocker. His exceptional route running and speed enable him to create separation from defenders, showcasing his elite athletic capabilities at the TE position. 2). Ja'Tavion Sanders - Texas (Receiving TE) Height/Weight: 6'4", 249 lbs Inline Usage: 75% Slot Usage: 25% ADoT: 9.8 YAC: 7.7 Cont. Catch Rate: 54% NFL Potential: High-End Starter Potential Player Comparison: David Njoku Current Draft Projection: 2nd Round NFL Teams Mocked: Bengals, Dolphins, Commanders Play Style/Scheme: Sanders is a quintessential modern receiving TE, showcasing exceptional route-running and catch capabilities, especially in traffic. His ability to maneuver after the catch marks him as a significant threat, though further development in run blocking is anticipated to enhance his all-around game. 3). Ben Sinnott - Kansas State (Versatile TE) Height/Weight: 6'4", 250 lbs Inline Usage: 61% Slot Usage: 39% ADoT: 10.1 YAC: 6.8 Cont. Catch Rate: 36% NFL Potential: High-End Starter Potential Player Comparison: T.J. Hockenson Current Draft Projection: 4th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Patriots, Commanders, 49ers Play Style/Scheme: Sinnott is celebrated for his versatile capabilities, performing adeptly both in line and as a receiver. His well-balanced skill set in physicality and technical proficiency highlights his adaptability, making him a well-rounded prospect with solid performances that underscore his readiness for the NFL. 4). Jaheim Bell - Florida State (Versatile TE) Height/Weight: 6'3", 230 lbs Inline Usage: 49% Slot Usage: 51% ADoT: 7.9 YAC: 8.1 Cont. Catch Rate: 50% NFL Potential: Mid-Level Starter Potential Player Comparison: Jordan Reed Current Draft Projection: 5th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Patriots, Vikings, Eagles Play Style/Scheme: Bell exemplifies the versatile TE role, showcasing an impressive ability to adapt and perform across multiple positions on the field. His dynamic playstyle makes him a valuable asset for offenses seeking a TE who can balance receiving talents with effective blocking. 5). Cade Stover - Ohio State (Versatile TE) Height/Weight: 6'4", 250 lbs Inline Usage: 52% Slot Usage: 48% ADoT: 8.2 YAC: 6.9 Cont. Catch Rate: 60% NFL Potential: Mid-Level Starter Potential Player Comparison: Hayden Hurst Current Draft Projection: 4th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Bengals, Bears, Commanders Play Style/Scheme: Stover's solid inline blocking and his reliability as a receiver define him as a dual-threat TE. His physicality and versatility afford him the adaptability to fit into schemes that leverage TEs for both blocking support and critical pass-catching, particularly on short to medium routes. 6). Theo Johnson - Penn State (Versatile TE) Height/Weight: 6'6", 250 lbs Inline Usage: 56% Slot Usage: 44% ADoT: 7.2 YAC: 5.0 Cont. Catch Rate: 75% NFL Potential: Mid-Level Starter Potential Player Comparison: Luke Musgrave Current Draft Projection: 4th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Commanders, Bengals, Vikings Play Style/Scheme: Johnson brings a compelling mix of receiving talent and effective blocking to the table, making him a versatile asset in multi-TE sets. His height and athleticism enable him to be a reliable target, particularly in contested catch situations, while his blocking skills contribute to his all-around utility on the field. 7). Tip Reiman - Illinois (Blocking TE) Height/Weight: 6'5", 271 lbs Inline Usage: 66% Slot Usage: 34% ADoT: 6.0 YAC: 5.5 Cont. Catch Rate: 25% NFL Potential: Mid-Level Starter Potential Player Comparison: Jason Witten Current Draft Projection: 6th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Patriots, Bengals, Lions Play Style/Scheme: Reiman is noted for his old-school, blocking-focused TE style, combining significant physicality with dependable pass-catching ability in short to medium routes, which is ideal for balanced offensive schemes. 8). Erick All - Iowa (Versatile TE) Height/Weight: 6'5", 255 lbs Inline Usage: 42% Slot Usage: 58% ADoT: 8.7 YAC: 6.1 Cont. Catch Rate: 34% NFL Potential: Mid-Level Starter Potential Player Comparison: Gerald Everett Current Draft Projection: 5th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Jets, Commanders, Saints Play Style/Scheme: All demonstrates good versatility, adept in both receiving and blocking, making him suitable for varied offensive schemes, emphasizing his potential as a comprehensive TE option in the NFL. 9). AJ Barner - Michigan (Blocking TE) Height/Weight: 6'6", 251 lbs Inline Usage: 71% Slot Usage: 29% ADoT: 8.2 YAC: 4.9 Cont. Catch Rate: 43% NFL Potential: Low-Level Starter Potential Player Comparison: Drew Sample Current Draft Projection: 5th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Cardinals, 49ers, Jets Play Style/Scheme: Barner embodies the classic TE mold, offering a strong blocking foundation complemented by reliable receiving capabilities, fitting best in pro-style offenses that value a TE's multifaceted role. 10). Jared Wiley - TCU (Receiving TE) Height/Weight: 6'6", 250 lbs Inline Usage: 63% Slot Usage: 37% ADoT: 6.9 YAC: 6.4 Cont. Catch Rate: 41% NFL Potential: Low-Level Starter Potential Player Comparison: Martellus Bennett Current Draft Projection: 5th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Panthers, Bucs, Patriots Play Style/Scheme: Wiley excels as a receiving TE with burgeoning blocking skills, leveraging his size and athleticism to dominate in the passing game, especially on vertical routes, poised for growth with further coaching.

  • 2024 NFL Draft: Wide Receiver Rankings By Category, Outside, Slot, and Dynamic Usage - Playstyle and Scheme Fit

    The 2024 NFL Draft wide receiver class could rival past WR draft classes, like the 2014 NFL Draft class, which included Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, and Odell Beckam Jr. The 2014 WR class has amassed 87K receiving yards and 589 touchdowns and counting, with Mike Evans and Davante Adams still churning out numbers in the NFL. The success of any WR draft class often depends on where a player lands and how they fit into that particular offense at the NFL level. We can say this about every position, and unless you are a generational talent, you are unlikely to thrive in a bad situation and be out of the league in 3 to 4 years. Now as we have done for other key positions in the past, I wanted to dive into the WR position with a more in-depth view of how each of the WRs for whom we have a current NFL Draft grade and categorize them into their positional buckets based on their usage at the college level. The three categories are as follows: Outside X-Style Wide Receivers (Wide Usage: 80% Range or higher) Slot Wide Receivers (Slot Usage: 65% Range or Higher) Dynamic Usage Players (Blend of Wide and Slot Use) By categorizing each WR into their projected positional bucket, we can better understand where they might fit into an offensive scheme at the NFL level. Not every WR is one size fits all, and not every big WR is an outside X style player, just like not every 5-11, 190lb WR is a slot, there are going to be outliers for one reason or another, but the goal is to identify how each prospect could be utilized in the NFL. In the analysis below, as I mentioned, each player will be categorized as an outside, slot, or dynamic (chess piece) player. Each player is ranked using their current NFL Draft grade we compiled through film study and data analysis. In addition, I also provided the current NFL Draft projections for each prospect using current NFL mock draft data. Outside X-Style Wide Receivers (Wide Usage: 80% Range or higher) An "Outside X-Style Wide Receiver," commonly referred to as the "X receiver" or the "split end," is a specific role in an NFL offense. Here’s what defines an X receiver and their purpose on the field: Positioning: The X receiver typically lines up on the line of scrimmage, split farthest away from the tight end. Because they are on the line of scrimmage, they must be able to get a free release against press coverage since they are eligible to be jammed by defenders at the line of scrimmage. Skill Set: X receivers are usually the prototypical big, strong, and physical wide receivers. They often have a size advantage over the defensive backs. They are expected to have a large catch radius and the ability to win contested catches, especially on deep throws and in the red zone. Purpose in an Offense: The X receiver serves as a primary target for the quarterback, often in critical down-and-distance situations. They are frequently used to stretch the field vertically and create big plays. They draw the attention of the opponent’s top cornerback, which can open up opportunities for other receivers on the field. In the red zone, their size and physicality make them prime targets, especially on fade routes. Challenges: Since they line up on the line of scrimmage, X receivers cannot go in motion and often face press coverage. They must be skilled at using their hands and body to create separation immediately off the snap. Notable examples of X receivers in the NFL have included players like Julio Jones, Michael Irvin, and, more recently, Mike Evans. They are often seen as their team's number one wide receiver and are crucial to an offense's passing game. 1). Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) - 6'4", 205 lbs Grade: Elite (75.32) Wide Usage: 79.8%, Slot Usage: 20.2% ADoT: 13.1, YAC: 424, YAContact: 116, Cont. Catch Rate: 43.3% Harrison Jr. showcases the archetype of an elite X-receiver with his imposing size, exceptional route-running, and reliable hands, making him a quintessential fit for teams seeking a dominant outside presence. Current NFL Draft Projection: Top 5 Pick Teams Mocked: Cardinals, Chargers, Patriots 2). Rome Odunze (Washington) - 6'3", 212 lbs Grade: Elite (75.00) Wide Usage: 81.9%, Slot Usage: 18.1% ADoT: 15.5, YAC: 523, YAContact: 256, Cont. Catch Rate: 75% With his size and athletic prowess, Odunze embodies the modern NFL's ideal for an outside receiver, capable of winning contested catches and stretching defenses vertically. Current NFL Draft Projection: Top 10 Pick Teams Mocked: Bears, Cardinals, Giants, Chargers 3). Adonai Mitchell (Texas) - 6'2", 205 lbs Grade: Near Elite (71.18) Wide Usage: 81.6%, Slot Usage: 18.4% ADoT: 16, YAC: 181, YAContact: 39, Cont. Catch Rate: 36.4% Mitchell stands out as a deep threat with an exceptional ADoT, underscoring his role in stretching the field and making impactful plays in the vertical game. Current NFL Draft Projection: Late 1st Round Teams Mocked: Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins 4). Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) - 6'4", 205 lbs Grade: Near Elite (71.07) Wide Usage: 86.8%, Slot Usage: 13.2% ADoT: 13.9, YAC: 391, YAContact: 152, Cont. Catch Rate: 53.8% Thomas Jr.'s height, speed, and physicality position him as a formidable X-receiver Current NFL Draft Projection: Mid-Late 1st Round Teams Mocked: Bills, Bengals, Bears, Dolphins 5). Troy Franklin (Oregon) - 6'3", 180 lbs Grade: Near Elite (70.48) Wide Usage: 81.1%, Slot Usage: 18.9% ADoT: 12.8, YAC: 547, YAContact: 194, Cont. Catch Rate: 36.8% Franklin's athletic profile and playmaking ability after the catch make him a coveted prospect for teams seeking a dynamic and versatile X-receiver. Current NFL Draft Projection: Late 1st-Mid 2nd Round Teams Mocked: Chiefs, Patriots, Panthers, Bills 6). Jermaine Burton (Alabama) - 6'0", 200 lbs Grade: High-End Starter Potential (65.96) Wide Usage: 80.1%, Slot Usage: 19.9% ADoT: 20.2, YAC: 130, YAContact: 33, Cont. Catch Rate: 56.3% Burton's exceptional downfield ability and proficiency in contested situations position him as a critical asset for offenses looking to exploit vertical mismatches. Current NFL Draft Projection: 2nd-4th Round Teams Mocked: Steelers, Cowboys, Eagles, Broncos 7). Tez Walker (North Carolina) - 6'3", 200 lbs Grade: High-End Starter Potential (65.77) Wide Usage: 93.1%, Slot Usage: 6.9% ADoT: 18.2, YAC: 126, YAContact: 58, Cont. Catch Rate: 58.8% Walker’s towering presence and knack for making plays deep down the field earmark him as a primary target for teams favoring a deep-threat X-receiver. Current NFL Draft Projection: 2nd Round Teams Mocked: Lions, Bears, Patriots 8). Johnny Wilson (Florida State) - 6'7", 238 lbs Grade: High-End Starter Potential (65.43) Wide Usage: 91.2%, Slot Usage: 8.8% ADoT: 13.8, YAC: 167, YAContact: 99, Cont. Catch Rate: 40.9% Wilson's unique combination of size and athleticism makes him an intriguing X-receiver prospect, ideal for exploiting mismatches in the red zone and along the sidelines. Current NFL Draft Projection: 4th-5th Round Teams Mocked: Steelers, Buccaneers, Lions 9). Cornelius Johnson (Michigan) - 6'3", 211 lbs Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential (63.34) Wide Usage: 94.6%, Slot Usage: 5.4% ADoT: 11.5, YAC: 115, YAContact: 46, Cont. Catch Rate: 81.8% Johnson excels as a traditional outside receiver, leveraging his size and deep-route proficiency to serve as a reliable downfield target. Current NFL Draft Projection: 5th Round Teams Mocked: Chargers, Vikings, Raiders 10). Brenden Rice (USC) - 6'3", 210 lbs Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential (62.69) Wide Usage: 87.1%, Slot Usage: 12.9% ADoT: 15.1, YAC: 230, YAContact: 112, Cont. Catch Rate: 25% Rice's capabilities as a deep threat and contested catch ability spotlight him as a potential impact player for offenses prioritizing the vertical passing game. Current NFL Draft Projection: 3rd Round Teams Mocked: Chiefs, Bears, Cardinals 11). Jamari Thrash (Louisville) - 6'1", 185 lbs Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential (62.17) Wide Usage: 89.2%, Slot Usage: 10.8% ADoT: 11.1, YAC: 427, YAContact: 149, Cont. Catch Rate: 15.8% Thrash's remarkable YAC and YAContact figures illustrate his resilience and playmaking ability, making him a valuable asset for teams needing an outside receiver with the knack for turning short gains into significant plays. Current NFL Draft Projection: 4th-5th Round Teams Mocked: Steelers, Giants, Bears Slot Wide Receivers (Slot Usage: 65% Range or Higher) the "Slot Receiver" has a unique role in an NFL offense, with specific responsibilities that differ from those of an outside wide receiver. Here’s what characterizes a slot receiver and their purpose on the field: Positioning: Slot receivers line up between the last man on the line of scrimmage (typically a tight end or tackle) and the outside receiver. They are positioned closer to the offensive linemen, and as such, they are "off the line of scrimmage." This alignment gives them more flexibility in motion before the snap and enables them to take advantage of the space created by their positioning. Skill Set: Slot receivers are generally smaller than outside receivers, but they are quick, agile, and have good hands. They must run precise routes due to the crowded space they operate in, with many defenders nearby. They require the toughness to withstand hits from different angles and the speed to create separation quickly. Purpose in an Offense: The slot receiver works the middle of the field, often putting them against the opposing team's linebackers and safeties rather than cornerbacks. They are crucial in creating mismatches due to their speed against typically slower linebackers. Slot receivers are often targeted on third downs due to their reliability and route-running prowess in short to intermediate passing plays. They also play a vital role in the screen game and are often used in jet sweeps or end-around plays because of their pre-snap motion. Challenges: Slot receivers must have a strong understanding of defensive schemes since they will face various coverage types and have to make quick decisions in tight areas. They need to have excellent spatial awareness to find and sit in voids in zone coverages and must be able to absorb contact over the middle. Examples of notable slot receivers include Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, and Cooper Kupp. These players often lead their teams in receptions due to the high volume of quick, short-area targets they receive, reflecting their importance in sustaining drives and providing reliable options for their quarterbacks. 1). Roman Wilson (Michigan) - 6'0", 192 lbs Grade: High-End Starter Potential (69.21) Wide Usage: 31.3%, Slot Usage: 68.7% ADoT: 13.9, YAC: 223, YAContact: 39, Cont. Catch Rate: 37.5% Wilson's high slot usage, coupled with his deep-route efficiency, signifies his role as a versatile playmaker, capable of impacting the game both in the slot and on deeper routes outside. Current NFL Draft Projection: 2nd Round Teams Mocked: Eagles, Chiefs, Bills 2). Jalen McMillan (Washington) - 6'1", 192 lbs Grade: High-End Starter Potential (65.69) Wide Usage: 5.9%, Slot Usage: 94.1% ADoT: 9.6, YAC: 291, YAContact: 106, Cont. Catch Rate: 0% McMillan exemplifies the modern slot receiver with his notable ability to generate yards after the catch and agility in open space. Current NFL Draft Projection: 3rd-4th Round Teams Mocked: Chiefs, Jaguars, Buccaneers 3). Jacob Cowing (Arizona) - 5'11", 175 lbs Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential (64.80) Wide Usage: 29.4%, Slot Usage: 70.6% ADoT: 6.7, YAC: 491, YAContact: 99, Cont. Catch Rate: 35.7% Cowing's agility and deep-route capability make him a slot receiver with the unique ability to stretch the defense vertically, a rare trait that adds a dynamic layer to his team's offense. Current NFL Draft Projection: 4th-5th Round Teams Mocked: 49ers, Falcons, Saints, Broncos 4). Malik Washington (Virginia) - 5'8", 194 lbs Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential (64.53) Wide Usage: 4.5%, Slot Usage: 95.5% ADoT: 8.1, YAC: 362, YAContact: 190, Cont. Catch Rate: 64.7% Washington’s proficiency in the slot is complemented by his explosive playmaking ability, particularly after the catch, making him an essential component of any offense looking for a dynamic slot receiver. Current NFL Draft Projection: 3rd-4th Round Teams Mocked: Panthers, Rams, Buccaneers 5). Luke McCaffrey (Rice) - 6'2", 195 lbs Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential (64.41) Wide Usage: 28.1%, Slot Usage: 71.9% ADoT: 10.6, YAC: 425, YAContact: 175, Cont. Catch Rate: 60.1% McCaffrey showcases a unique blend of a quarterback's understanding of the offense and wide receiver skill sets. His transition from quarterback to wide receiver at Rice allowed him to excel in reading defenses and finding open spaces. His quick, controlled feet and sharp cuts make him an elusive target, especially in the slot. Current NFL Draft Projection: 5th-6th Round Teams Mocked: Steelers, Eagles, Jaguars 6). Malachi Corley (Western Kentucky) - 5'11", 210 lbs Grade: Low-Level Starter Potential (59.74) Wide Usage: 14%, Slot Usage: 86% ADoT: 5.5, YAC: 716, YAContact: 280, Cont. Catch Rate: 23.5% Corley, known as the "YAC King," excels in creating explosive plays after the catch. His high slot usage highlights his effectiveness in quick-game scenarios, making him a vital asset in schemes that prioritize dynamic slot receivers. Current NFL Draft Projection: 3rd-4th Round Teams Mocked: Eagles, 49ers, Jaguars 7). Ainias Smith (Texas A&M) - 5'10", 190 lbs Grade: Low-Level Starter Potential (58.08) Wide Usage: 24.0%, Slot Usage: 76.0% ADoT: 10.4, YAC: 355, YAContact: 190, Cont. Catch Rate: 56.1% Smith's transition from running back to receiver is evident in his playmaking ability, especially from the slot, where his quickness and agility make him a matchup nightmare for defenses, underscoring his potential in schemes that value versatility and creativity in the slot. Current NFL Draft Projection: 5th-7th Round Teams Mocked: Eagles, Commanders, Colts Dynamic Usage Players (Blend of Wide and Slot Use) Receivers who can effectively play both in the slot and out wide as an X receiver or a flanker are often referred to as "versatile" or "hybrid" receivers. Here's what characterizes these multifaceted players: Adaptability: These receivers have the skill set to run a full route tree, whether it's quick slants from the slot or deep fades and post routes from the outside. They possess the agility and quickness needed for the slot, as well as the size and strength to contend with press coverage on the outside. Skill Set: Hybrid receivers must have excellent hands, route-running capabilities, and the mental acuity to understand various defensive schemes they'll encounter in different alignments. They require the toughness to make catches over the middle and the body control and catching radius to make plays on the boundary. Usage in Offense: Offensive coordinators can move these players around to create mismatches against specific defensive personnel. They can line up against a less favorable cornerback, exploit the slower reaction time of a linebacker, or challenge the physicality of a safety. These receivers provide their quarterbacks with a dependable target capable of adjusting to different roles on a play-by-play basis. Flexibility: Hybrid receivers offer an offense the flexibility to switch between different formations without substituting players, thus keeping defenses on their toes. They can be instrumental in no-huddle offenses where quick changes in positioning can be a strategic advantage. Challenges: They must have a comprehensive understanding of the entire playbook, as they need to know the responsibilities for multiple receiving positions. Conditioning is also critical because their versatile role can mean a higher number of snaps and more varied physical demands during a game. Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Tyreek Hill exemplify the type of versatility these hybrid receivers possess. Contemporary players who demonstrate this ability add a dynamic layer to their team's offense and are valuable assets due to their ability to line up effectively in multiple spots on the field. 1). Malik Nabers (LSU) - 6'0", 195 lbs Grade: Near Elite (72.78) Wide Usage: 46.0%, Slot Usage: 53.6% ADoT: 12.2, YAC: 625, YAContact: 291, Cont. Catch Rate: 45.5% Nabers showcases his versatility and dynamism, adept at both deep routes and making plays after the catch. His balanced usage between wide and slot positions underlines his ability to fit into a variety of offensive schemes, marking him as a multifaceted weapon on the field. Current NFL Draft Projection: Top 10 Pick Teams Mocked: Chargers, Patriots, Bears, Cardinals, Giants 2). Xavier Worthy (Texas) - 6'1", 160 lbs Grade: Near Elite (70.65) Wide Usage: 60.0%, Slot Usage: 40.0% ADoT: 10.3, YAC: 584, YAContact: 221, Cont. Catch Rate: 23.8% Worthy's explosive playmaking skills, highlighted by his exceptional YAC, make him a threat in any offensive alignment. His dynamic use across formations exemplifies his adaptability, making him a critical asset in spread offenses that utilize his speed and open-field agility. Current NFL Draft Projection: late 1st, early 2nd Round Teams Mocked: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars 3). Xavier Legette (South Carolina) - 6'3", 220 lbs Grade: High-End Starter Potential (69.99) Wide Usage: 65.5%, Slot Usage: 34.5% ADoT: 13.8, YAC: 457, YAContact: 152, Cont. Catch Rate: 47.6% Legette's physical attributes and considerable YAC highlight his ability to contribute in various receiver roles. His blend of outside and slot usage demonstrates his utility in offensive schemes that value physicality and versatility on the perimeter. Current NFL Draft Projection: late 1st, early 2nd Round Teams Mocked: Colts, Bills, Chiefs, Ravens 4). Ladd McConkey (Georgia) - 6'0", 185 lbs Grade: High-End Starter Potential (68.87) Wide Usage: 75.1%, Slot Usage: 24.6% ADoT: 12.1, YAC: 383, YAContact: 167, Cont. Catch Rate: 41.0% McConkey's notable after-the-catch ability and his efficiency in both wide and slot positions make him a versatile option for offenses looking for a receiver who can excel in multiple facets of the game, particularly in space. Current NFL Draft Projection: late 1st, early 2nd Round Teams Mocked: Panthers, Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers, Lions 5). Keon Coleman (Florida State) - 6'4", 215 lbs Grade: High-End Starter Potential (68.13) Wide Usage: 70.0%, Slot Usage: 29.8% ADoT: 12.4, YAC: 309, YAContact: 163, Cont. Catch Rate: 33.3% Coleman's imposing size and athleticism are well-utilized in both the wide and slot roles, making him a formidable target in any offensive scheme, particularly in those that value big-bodied receivers capable of making contested catches and generating yards after the catch. Current NFL Draft Projection: late 1st, early 2nd Round Teams Mocked: Bengals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Lions 6). Ricky Pearsall (Florida) - 6'1", 190 lbs Grade: High-End Starter Potential (67.32) Wide Usage: 42.4%, Slot Usage: 56.8% ADoT: 11, YAC: 392, YAContact: 132, Cont. Catch Rate: 50% Pearsall excels in creating significant plays from the slot. He utilizes his precise route-running and ability to gain yards after the catch, embodying the archetype of a dynamic receiver capable of impacting the game from various alignments. Current NFL Draft Projection: 2nd Round Teams Mocked: Bills, Chiefs, Texans, Eagles, Colts 7). Javon Baker (UCF) - 6'1", 208 lbs Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential (64.98) Wide Usage: 72.9%, Slot Usage: 27.1% ADoT: 17.1, YAC: 379, YAContact: 127, Cont. Catch Rate: 56.3% Baker's blend of reliable hands, physicality, and route-running finesse allows him to be effective in both outside and slot positions, marking him as a versatile receiver capable of adapting to the needs of his team's offense. Current NFL Draft Projection: 3rd-5th Round Teams Mocked: Patriots, Panthers, Bears, Lions 8). Ja'Lynn Polk (Washington) - 6'2", 204 lbs Grade: Mid-Level Starter Potential (62.14) Wide Usage: 58.8%, Slot Usage: 41.2% ADoT: 13.8, YAC: 365, YAContact: 128, Cont. Catch Rate: 54.2% Polk's ability to excel in contested catch situations and his balanced usage highlights his versatility and capability to be a significant contributor across different receiver roles, which is ideal for schemes that value adaptable and reliable receiving options. Current NFL Draft Projection: 4th-5th Round Teams Mocked: Texans, Chiefs, Ravens, Cowboys

  • 2024 NFL Draft: Running Back Rankings Updated - Blake Corum is RB1, Jonathan Brooks Is A Close RB2

    Blake Corum jumps ahead of the pack. The 2024 NFL Draft's RB class may not top the charts like its predecessor, but it's undeniably rich with talent. The debate over the top pick is wide open, with scouts divided—some favor Jonathon Brooks, while others see Blake Corum as possibly ranking as low as RB4. Despite the lack of consensus, I'm bullish on Corum's prospects as a versatile three-down back from Michigan. Jonathon Brooks Is A Close Number 2 Before the Combine, I had Brooks leading my rankings, but after reflecting on Corum's comprehensive skill set, I see him as a very close second. Notably, Brooks has reportedly received a clean bill of health from the Dallas Cowboys' medical staff, making a strong case for his readiness for the upcoming season despite a 2023 ACL injury. Trey Benson's NFL Combine performance solidified the tape Trey Benson, who I've ranked third, impressed with a 4.39 40-yard dash and a swift 1.52 10-yard split at 216 lbs during the Combine. This performance alone could justify elevating him in the rankings. His tape reveals an underappreciated receiving ability, suggesting he might just top this draft class as a running back. Why I chose Bucky Irving ahead of Audric Estime Choosing Bucky Irving over Audric Estime in my rankings was tough. Irving's all-around game edged him ahead, though Estime's power running evokes Leonard Fournette and hints at untapped potential. Jaylen Wright's ceiling is the highest in the class. However, my top pick for sheer upside is Jaylen Wright. His NFL Combine performance and on-field versatility make him an exciting prospect, capable of making big plays in open space. While his agility and past fumbling issues could raise flags, Wright's overall potential is compelling, offering a mix of power and speed that could translate well at the NFL level. 2024 NFL Draft Running Back Rankings (RB1) Blake Corum, Michigan (RB, 5'8", 212 lbs) Projection: High-End Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 3rd Round NFL Teams Mocked: Not specified Analysis: Corum thrives in a zone-blocking scheme, where his outstanding vision and agility, combined with a low center of gravity, improve his balance and efficiency between the tackles. He's proficient in pass protection and demonstrates a high football IQ. Although Corum was not heavily utilized as a pass catcher at Michigan, he has the potential to offer three-down versatility as a pass-catching back in the NFL. (RB2) Jonathon Brooks, Texas (RB, 6'0", 207 lbs) Projection: Mid-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: Late 2nd, Early 3rd Round NFL Teams Mocked: Cowboys, Packers, Chargers Analysis: Brooks exhibits versatility and dynamism, excelling in zone running schemes where his vision and agility shine. He leverages his natural ability to navigate and exploit gaps effectively. While showing promise in the passing game, improving his pass protection and route running could significantly enhance his role in the NFL. (RB3) Trey Benson, Florida State (RB, 6'1", 220 lbs) Projection: Mid-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 3rd-4th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Packers, Cowboys, Bengals Analysis: Benson is known for his vertical power running, utilizing strength and contact balance to break tackles and push forward. His physicality aligns with schemes focused on inside running, and while showing potential as a receiver, expanding his versatility could heighten his NFL impact. (RB4) Jaylen Wright, Tennessee (RB, 5'11", 210 lbs) Projection: Mid-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 3rd-4th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Cowboys, Bengals, Chargers Analysis: Wright's exceptional speed characterizes his play, making him a significant threat in open space and an ideal fit for schemes that leverage his big-play potential. He is solid in pass protection, and his abilities as a receiver offer a versatile toolkit for the NFL. (RB5) Bucky Irving, Oregon (RB, 5'10", 195 lbs) Projection: Mid-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 3rd-5th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Cowboys, Packers, Bengals Analysis: Irving's agility and speed make him particularly effective in outside zone and gap schemes. As a dual-threat in the passing game, further developing his receiving skills and pass protection would make him a more complete player at the NFL level. (RB6) Audric Estime, Notre Dame (RB, 5'11", 230 lbs) Projection: Mid-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 4th-5th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Bengals, Bears, Packers Analysis: Estime embodies the quintessential power back, thriving in a ground-and-pound offense. His powerful running style, highlighted by his ability to power through defenders while maintaining his balance, is what NFL teams seek in short-yardage and goal-to-go scenarios. While average in the passing game, his solid pass protection bolsters his three-down back potential. (RB7) Marshawn Lloyd, USC (RB, 5'9", 210 lbs) Projection: Low-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 4th-5th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Chargers, Giants, Packers Analysis: Lloyd is marked by dynamic playmaking ability, blending speed with agility. His improved vision and patience year over year is notable, and he can create explosive plays when it appears nothing is available. He has excellent potential as a pass catcher and a willingness in pass protection. (RB8) Ray Davis, Kentucky (RB, 5'10", 216 lbs) Projection: Low-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 5th-6th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Chargers, Bengals, Patriots Analysis: Davis is a prototype power back, favoring a North-South approach with notable straight-line speed. Ideal for a zone-blocking scheme, his blend of power running, ability to contribute in the passing game, and prowess in short-yardage situations solidify his utility in varied offensive schemes. (RB9) Will Shipley, Clemson (RB, 5'11", 205 lbs) Projection: Low-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 6th-7th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Patriots, Bengals, Packers Analysis: Shipley stands out with exceptional vision and explosive agility, making him versatile in both the run and pass game. His adaptability to zone-run and power-run schemes and his ability to operate as a three-down back position him as a valuable asset in multiple offensive schemes. (RB10) Isaac Guerendo, Louisville (RB, 6'0", 221 lbs) Projection: Low-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 6th-7th Round NFL Teams Mocked: Bills, Patriots, Vikings Analysis: Guerendo showcases remarkable athleticism, with patience and vision that complement his running style. He can flourish as a one-cut runner in a zone-based offense. At 221lbs, NFL scouts love the potential after he posted a 4.33 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. He is a solid pass protector and a decent receiver out of the backfield.

  • 2024 NFL Draft: Quarterback Rankings Updated - Caleb Williams remains QB1, while J.J. McCarthy is ascending

    We are a few weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft, and the analysis and over-analysis are far from over. Over the last several weeks, heavy debate has centered around Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy and whether or not he is worthy of being a top 5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Caleb Williams remains the QB1, but I wouldn't rule out J.J. McCarthy. I have spent the last three years evaluating Caleb Williams. I remember his time at Oklahoma when he burst onto the scene against Texas in an epic game, replacing Spencer Rattler and leading Oklahoma to a thrilling 55-48 win in the Red River rivalry after stepping in for Rattler at halftime. While Rattler was raw and talented, Caleb Williams was too good to be sidelined. Fast forward to now: he is a Heisman Trophy winner and considered a generational type of player. He has every throw in his arsenal, possesses strong arm strength, remarkable off-platform ability, and is likely a much more mobile version of Patrick Mahomes. Williams has lofty expectations, and although some believe his father could be a complicating factor in professional decision-making on the business side, this should not detract from Caleb Williams's exceptional talent. Initially, he graded on par with Andrew Luck and better than Trevor Lawrence in my evaluations. However, I do have some reservations about him, including his refusal to undergo medicals at the NFL Combine. He did submit to a few medical checks, and these results can be distributed to interested teams, so this issue may not be as significant as the media suggests. I wasn't concerned about him skipping NFL Combine workouts since he threw at his pro day and had a media session with the NFL Network. Overall, despite the thorough analysis, the most crucial aspect is what I see on tape, and I see an elite-level player. J.J. McCarthy is absolutely worthy of a top 5 pick for several reasons As I have said since 2022, J.J. McCarthy would be considered a top 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft if he improved his decision-making and mechanics in 2023. He improved in both areas under the guidance of a dedicated QB coach at Michigan, Kirk Campbell. McCarthy has the athletic ability and arm talent to be a very good or even great NFL quarterback. I wrote about each of the top quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft a few weeks ago and provided the floor vs. ceiling comparisons to paint a better picture. McCarthy's ceiling is Joe Burrow; his floor is Chad Pennington. He is worth the risk either way, and depending on his landing spot, he could ascend much faster. I also wrote about each of the top QBs in clutch 3rd-down situations in 2023, and McCarthy ranked ahead of everyone in 3rd down and obvious passing situations, which completely shuts down the narrative that Michigan did not lean on him. NFL evaluators see the talent. Jim Harbaugh said he is the best quarterback in Michigan football history and is worthy of the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. I agree with Jim Harbaugh. "I think he plays quarterback the best of any quarterback in the draft," said Harbaugh, "He's incredible. So, big market, small market. Cold weather, hot weather, it won't matter." - Jim Harbaugh Updated Pre-NFL Draft QB Rankings (QB1) Caleb Williams, USC (QB, 6'1", 215 lbs) Projection: Elite Consensus Draft Projections: 1st Overall Pick NFL Teams Mocked: Chicago Bears Analysis: Caleb Williams is hailed as a generational talent, showcasing a Mahomes-like ability to extend plays combined with elite arm talent. His tape is undeniable, and the ceiling is beyond measure. The only on-field knock on Caleb is that he played on a poorly coached team without a defensive identity. In 2023, Caleb Williams opted to play hero ball more often to overcome USC's bad defense, a trend he will need to break once he is in the NFL. Bad habits die hard in the NFL, so he will need to learn to take what is given more often. I cannot get a read on his work ethic off the field. Additionally, his father's influence on the business side is a small concern. (QB2) J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (QB, 6'3", 219 lbs) Projection: High-End Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: Top 15 Overall NFL Teams Mocked: Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders Analysis: McCarthy's growth since arriving at the University of Michigan is one of the primary reasons NFL scouts and GMs are enamored. McCarthy has a powerful arm; he can make any throw at any level of the field. His mobility allows him to create as a runner and a passer, similar to Drake Maye and Caleb Williams. His ceiling, combined with his competitive nature and willingness to grind nonstop, has earned him the number two spot in my QB rankings. (QB3) Drake Maye, North Carolina (QB, 6'4", 225 lbs) Projection: High-End Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: Top 5 NFL Teams Mocked: New England Patriots, Washington Commanders Analysis: In 2022, Drake Maye displayed undeniable clutch ability and high-ceiling potential. Maye's 2023 season reflected a quarterback with elite potential marred by inconsistencies and unfulfilled potential. His playing style and physical attributes draw comparisons to Justin Herbert, indicating significant upside with proper development. Despite fluctuations in performance, Maye possesses a powerful arm and high-level escapability in the pocket, drawing comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger. If he reaches his ceiling, he could become the top QB in this draft class. (QB4) Jayden Daniels, LSU (QB, 6'3", 200 lbs) Projection: High-End Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: Top 10 Overall NFL Teams Mocked: Washington Commanders, New England Patriots Analysis: Daniels's dynamic play style and pocket presence, combined with his remarkable athleticism, present a unique dual-threat capability. His Heisman-winning season at LSU underlines his evolution and potential as a top-tier NFL quarterback. Concerns remain regarding his physicality and decision-making as a runner, but his arm strength and accuracy position him as a highly desirable prospect. He has been compared to Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, both of whom are excellent passers from within the pocket, with Lamar Jackson providing the dual-threat comparison that you hope Daniels can ascend to. (QB5) Michael Penix Jr., Washington (QB, 6'3", 214 lbs) Projection: Mid-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: Mid to late 1st round NFL Teams Mocked: Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos Analysis: Penix stands out with his precision and pocket poise, drawing parallels to established NFL passers like Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud. There are, of course, injury concerns, but those have quieted a bit with reports of clean NFL Combine medicals. Under the right coaching, Penix's transition to the NFL could see him exceed expectations and secure a starting role immediately. I consider him an NFL-ready player who is at or near his ceiling. (QB6) Bo Nix, Oregon (QB, 6'2", 213 lbs) Projection: Low-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: Late 1st round, early 2nd round NFL Teams Mocked: Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders Analysis: Bo Nix possesses a good blend of pocket presence and improvisational ability. Like J.J. McCarthy, Nix has a knack for making the clutch play in key moments. His improvement in mechanics and decision-making is why NFL teams are considering him a first-round talent. While I do not consider Nix to be a transcendent type of talent, he can be an adequate NFL-level starter in the right system. (QB7) Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (QB, 6'1", 218 lbs) Projection: Mid-Level Starter Potential Consensus Draft Projections: 2nd or 3rd round NFL Teams Mocked: New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos Analysis: Rattler's journey from Oklahoma to South Carolina is one of significant growth and maturity. At Oklahoma, Rattler burst onto the college football scene as a freshman, drawing comparisons to Patrick Mahomes due to his mobility and arm talent. However, in his second year, he faced adversity after failing to develop as expected and was supplanted by incoming freshman QB Caleb Williams. After transferring to South Carolina, Rattler began to show growth. Playing behind a weak offensive line in 2023, he showed promise both in the pocket and on the run as a passer. He remains inconsistent and will need the right situation at the NFL level to succeed. I believe he has the potential to ascend into a top player in this class, but he must continue to work on his decision-making, footwork, and consistency as a passer.

  • 2024 NFL Mock Draft 4.1: Post-Free Agency Frenzy, The Latest Projections, Caleb Williams to The Bears, Vikings & Raiders Trade Up For A QB

    In past mock drafts, the Chicago Bears were the centerpiece, but now the Minnesota Vikings appear to be a team willing to go all in on a QB. The specific QB depends on the source – is it J.J. McCarthy or Drake Maye? Now that the Bears have made their intentions clear by trading away Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers, we can move on and try to figure out which QBs after Caleb Williams will be drafted in the top 5 and what other teams might be willing to pay to move up. I believe the Minnesota Vikings want to trade up as high as possible to draft Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy. The relationship with Josh McCown, who was Maye's high school football coach, seems to be valid. I also believe the Vikings like J.J. McCarthy a lot and are willing to make a move to pick 3 or 4 to ensure they can secure at least one of the two. Two other notable teams that need a QB and might have to part with a lot of draft capital to move up are the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders. In past mock drafts, I have had the Raiders or the Broncos selecting Michael Penix Jr. I still believe Penix is a first-rounder due to talent and not just need. I have only recently started drafting 5 QBs in the first round, but the Broncos not making a move in free agency to get a QB after parting with Russell Wilson could drive Bo Nix's draft stock much higher than his round-two grade. In this mock draft, two teams make a significant move to procure a QB; one top 5 team moves back and still gets a QB, while another team reaches for a QB way too early because they really do not have many options. Here is a position count for the latest mock draft, 4.1. Quarterbacks (QBs): Caleb Williams, JJ McCarthy, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix = 6 Wide Receivers (WRs): Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Malik Nabers, AD Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr. = 6 Offensive Tackles (OTs): Joe Alt, Taliese Fuaga, Troy Fautanu, JC Latham, Olu Fashanu, Amarius Mims, Graham Barton, Tyler Guyton = 8 Cornerbacks (CBs): Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, Terrion Arnold, Kool-Aid McKinstry = 5 Interior Defensive Linemen (IDLs): Byron Murphy II = 1 Edge Rushers (EDGE): Jared Verse, Dallas Turner, Chop Robinson, Laiatu Latu = 4 Tight Ends (TEs): Brock Bowers = 1 Interior Offensive Linemen (IOLs): Jackson Powers-Johnson = 1 Mock Draft 4.1 (1). Chicago Bears Pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC Team Needs: QB, WR, DL Summary: The Bears finally traded Justin Fields, sending him to the Steelers for a 6th-round pick. Now the Bears can move in a new direction by drafting the potential generational talent, Caleb Williams. (2). Washington Commanders Pick: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan Team Needs: QB, TE, OL, ED, DB Summary: The Commanders do not mess around with the direction of their franchise. They go with the talented Michigan QB, the proven winner and leader. (3). Minnesota Vikings (via NE) Pick: Drake Maye, QB UNC Team Needs: QB, TE, G, C, DI, DB Summary: The Vikings send 2024 picks 11 and 23 overall, along with their 2025 first-rounder, to the Patriots to move into the top 3. They select the best available QB on their board. (4). Arizona Cardinals Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State Team Needs: WR, G, C, DL, CB Summary: The Cardinals stay at pick 4 even though they could have moved back. They opt to draft the generational WR from Ohio State. (5). Los Angeles Chargers Pick: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington Team Needs: RB, WR, TE, DI, LB, CB Summary: Many people believed that Jim Harbaugh would go after Bock Bowers in a Greg Roman offense, but after trading away Keenan Allen to the Bears, the Chargers need at least one elite WR to play in their heavy 12 personnel sets. The Chargers could also opt to draft offensive tackle Joe Alt. Other options include trading back with a QB-needy team. (6). Las Vegas Raiders (via NYG) Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU Team Needs: QB, RB, OL, DI, LB, CB Summary: The Raiders had no choice but to make a move toward their future. So they traded their 13th and 44th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft with an additional 2025 3rd-round pick to move up to 6th overall. They make this move to draft Jayden Daniels, who could still be available at picks 8-10 at this point, barring a trade-up by Denver. (7). Tennessee Titans Pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame Team Needs: WR, OL, ED, DB Summary: This has always been Joe Alt. The best available tackle makes the most sense, but they can also go after an elite WR if one falls. (8). Atlanta Falcons Pick: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo Team Needs: DL, CB, ED Summary: The top corner or best available edge rusher in the draft class is the best route. (9). Chicago Bears Pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State Team Needs: QB, WR, DL Summary: In this spot, I am Pairing Fuaga with Darnell Wright on the right side of the OL for a year before transitioning to a full-time tackle role. (10). New York Jets Pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU Team Needs: WR, T, DI, S Summary: It's either Nabers or Odunze that falls, but will either one fall this far? If they do, the Jets positioned themselves via free agency to make a decision like this. I can see Brock Bowers being available. (11). New England Patriots Pick: Michael Penix Jr. QB, Washington Team Needs: QB, WR, T, ED In a calculated move, the Patriots traded back, and they are now in a position to take a quarterback who was once believed to be one of the top ten prospects. Penix might have fallen on draft boards, but the need for QB in this draft pushes guys higher than they would be otherwise. (12). Denver Broncos Pick: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon Team Needs: QB, WR, C, ED, CB Summary: The Broncos only have one pick in the top 100 and still need a QB. They can trade back and wait to see if they can procure Bo Nix or stay put and overdraft Nix. If they stay, we have options; they can draft a versatile OL, the Versatile Jared Verse is available, and several high-level corners. (13). New York Giants (via LV) Pick: Byron Murphy II, IDL, Texas Team Needs: QB, WR, OL, DI, LB, CB Summary: The Giant's decision to trade back with the Raiders allows them to build the trenches; whether on the offensive or defensive side, they need as much help as possible. (14). New Orleans Saints Pick: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington Team Needs: QB, WR, T, DL Summary: The Saints are interesting, they have several needs, but the offensive line continues to be the one spot I have targeted Saints mocks. (15). Indianapolis Colts Pick: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia Team Needs: WR, CB Summary: I find it hard to believe Bowers drops this far, but if he does, what a perfect match. (16). Seattle Seahawks Pick: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa Team Needs: G, C, ED, LB, S Summary: The Seahawks need a safety, so why not grab a player that has positional versatility and add him to a Mike Macdonald scheme that loves this style of high IQ player with elite athleticism? (17). Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson Team Needs: G, C, ED, DB Summary: If it is not OL or an elite WR, the Jags must sure up their secondary. (18). Cincinnati Bengals Pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama Needs: TE, T, DI Summary: I draft a tackle for the Bengals every year. I think this is the year they finally take one early. In this case, you can get a player with plug-and-play potential at right tackle as a rookie. (19). Los Angeles Rams Pick: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama Team Needs: QB, T, DL, LB, CB Summary: The Rams can go a lot of ways. With the retirement of Aaron Donald, they need depth on the defensive line, but they can hold for that. They have solid draft capital, so in this circumstance, we draft the best available corner that fits. (20). Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon Team Needs: QB, WR, T, C, CB Summary: I do not like to draft centers or interior offensive line this early, but Powers-Johnson is elite. (21). Miami Dolphins Pick: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State Team Needs: TE, OL, DI Summary: You cannot pass on a plug-and-play pass rusher at this point. (22). Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama Team Needs: WR, LB, DB Summary: The Eagles need some depth and talent at the corner position, and Kool-Aid can provide an immediate impact as a rookie. (23). New England Patriots (via MIN) Pick: AD Mitchell, WR, Texas Team Needs: QB, WR, T, ED Summary: After trading back from the 3rd overall pick with the Vikings, the Patriots can pair one of the top WRs in the draft class with Michael Penix Jr. (24). Dallas Cowboys Pick: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State Team Needs: RB, WR, T, C, DI, LB, CB Summary: It is time to rebuild the trenches; the Cowboys are in a perfect spot to get the best available tackle. Fashanu is an absolute freak with insane potential. (25). Green Bay Packers Pick: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia Team Needs: OL, DI, S, CB Summary: The Packers need to start rebuilding parts of their offensive line after the departure of David Bakhtiari. (26). Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia Team Needs: RB, TE, G, C, ED, LB, CB Summary: Ladd McConkey feels like a perfect match with Baker Mayfield, and the Bucs need to add talented youth to the WR position. (27). Arizona Cardinals Pick: Graham Barton, OT, Duke Team Needs: WR, G, C, DL, CB Summary: The Cardinals can go many different ways here but must build the offensive line. Barton provides positional versatility. He can play anywhere on the line, center, guard, tackle. (28). Buffalo Bills Pick: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama Team Needs: WR, T, DI, LB, DB Summary: Turner falling this far and landing in Buffalo to eventually replace Von Miller would be a perfect scenario. (29). Detroit Lions Pick: Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State Team Needs: G, C, ED, CB Summary: Pairing this type of high-ceiling talent opposite of Aidan Hutchinson would be incredible. (30). Baltimore Ravens Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. WR, LSU Team Needs: WR, OL, ED, CB Summary: It is never a surprise when a player of this caliber falls this far and right into the Raven's lap. Brian Thomas Jr. is considered one of the top wide receivers in the class. (31). San Francisco 49ers Pick: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA Team Needs: OL, CB, DL, IOL Summary: Latu is considered a top 20 talent. Falling this far is a steal. (32). Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma Team Needs: WR, T, DL Summary: The Chiefs get a really good tackle prospect with positional versatility. Teams Without a 1st Round Pick (33). Carolina Panthers Pick: Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia Team Needs: WR, TE, C, DL, LB, CB (42). Houston Texans Pick: Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan Team Needs: WR, DI, LB, CB (54). Cleveland Browns Pick: Braden Fiske, IDL, Florida State Team Needs: DI, LB, Edge

  • 2024 NFL Draft: Measuring Quarterback Clutch Ability Using Points Earned Per Play on 3rd and 4th Down: J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye

    Which of the top 2024 NFL Draft prospects is the most clutch in key moments? Among the many data points we measure to evaluate the quarterback position is their ability to operate in high-leverage situations. The top quarterbacks at any level of football, but most importantly in college football and the NFL, are those who can minimize mistakes, manage the game as needed, and activate their game-changing ability in key moments. The definition of a key moment can vary, and we can get extremely granular in the analysis if needed. However, for this circumstance, I chose 3rd down and obvious passing situations as one of the better ways to measure a quarterback's clutch ability. The rankings below use a measure referred to as the expected points model or the points earned model. What is the Points Earned Model? The Points Earned model is an analytical framework used to quantify a player's contribution to their team's scoring output, taking into account the context and impact of each play. It's derived from the Expected Points Added (EPA) concept, which measures how each play affects the team's scoring chances. The Points Earned model goes beyond traditional statistics by considering the value of each play within its game context, offering a nuanced view of a player's performance and impact. It's particularly insightful for quarterbacks, as it captures their contribution to the team's scoring potential, factoring in the plays that lead directly to points and those that significantly improve the team's scoring chances. How Does This Apply To The Analysis Below? Today, we compare the top 2024 NFL Draft Quarterback prospects from this past 2023 college football season on third down and obvious passing situations of 5 yards or more. These throws by the QBs must be thrown past the sticks, eliminating some of the after-the-catch ability of their wide receivers from the equation. The Key metrics we are going to use in this analysis include the following *(Combined 3rd/4th down throws past the sticks of 5 yards or more to go) Points Added Per Play Ranking (PAA Per Play Rank) *SIS Definition: Points Above Average per pass play. This metric measures a quarterback's effectiveness by comparing the points earned on each pass play to the league average. A higher value indicates a quarterback contributes more points than the average per play, highlighting their efficiency and effectiveness in critical situations. Positive Play% EPA Boom% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in an exceptionally successful play, defined by an EPA of at least +1. This indicates the quarterback's capability to create big, game-changing plays. A higher percentage represents a higher capability for making impactful plays. EPA Bust% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in a significant negative Expected Points Added (EPA), specifically less than -1. This metric identifies plays significantly decreasing a team's scoring opportunity or overall field position. A lower ranking (indicating fewer bust plays) is desirable, showing the quarterback's ability to avoid costly mistakes. The top QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft Ranked BY 2023 PAA Per Play *(Combined 3rd/4th down throws past the sticks of 5 yards or more to go) 1.) J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) PAA Per Play Rank: 1st nationally (1.06 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: McCarthy's efficiency is unparalleled with a 1.06 Points Above Average (PAA) per play, complemented by a leading Boom% rank (71.4%, 1st) and a remarkably low Bust% rank (20.0%, 4th), highlighting his precision and capacity for high-impact plays. This balance between high success in Boom% and minimizing failures in Bust% underscores his precision under pressure. Player Comparison Correlation: The comparison to Joe Burrow spotlights McCarthy’s ability to elevate his game under pressure, suggesting potential growth areas in play processing and decision-making to reach Burrow's level of NFL success. 2). Bo Nix (Oregon) PAA Per Play Rank: 3rd nationally (0.96 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Nix's play is characterized by a solid 0.96 Points Above Average (PAA) per play, a high Boom% rank (71.40%, 2nd), and a lower Bust% rank (19.0%, 3rd), demonstrating his capability to generate significant plays while efficiently avoiding negative outcomes. This proficiency in maximizing positive plays and mitigating risks highlights his suitability for dynamic offenses that leverage quarterback mobility and improvisational skills. Player Comparison Correlation: The parallel with Jalen Hurts accentuates Nix's potential. His precision and decision-making could elevate his performance, fostering a trajectory of development akin to Hurts. 3). Caleb Williams (USC) PAA Per Play Rank: 5th nationally (0.87 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Williams showcases a notable 0.87 Points Above Average (PAA) per play, with a Boom% rank (59.0%, 13th) that contrasts with a higher Bust% rank (25.6%, 10th). This highlights his dynamic dual-threat abilities and indicates room for improvement in areas such as trusting his pocket and taking what the defense gives him rather than always chasing explosive plays. Player Comparison Correlation: Williams' comparison to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers suggests his fit in schemes that prize mobility and playmaking, emphasizing that refining structured play could unlock his elite potential. 4). Jayden Daniels (LSU) PAA Per Play Rank: 23rd nationally (0.60 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Daniels' balance is evident with a 0.59 Points Above Average (PAA) per play. His moderate Boom% rank (52.9%, 27th) and Bust% rank (35.3%, 43rd) in key 3rd down and obvious passing situations are areas for improvement. This suggests that refining his decision-making could lead to more consistent high-impact plays. Player Comparison Correlation: Comparing Daniels to Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray underscores his potential in an offense that allows for his creative playmaking ability to flourish. He will need to improve as a passer in key 3rd down and obvious passing moments; he is a dynamic runner who can beat you in two ways, but leveraging his running ability to create more opportunities as a passer will elevate his game at the NFL level. 5). Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) PAA Per Play Rank: 24th nationally (0.59 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Rattler’s capability is marked by a 0.59 PAA per play, alongside a Boom% rank (46.3%, 66th) that is notably higher than his Bust% rank (41.5%, 85th), indicating a strong arm and creativity but also a need for better decision-making and consistency. This balance between creating impactful plays and the relatively higher occurrence of negative plays points to areas for growth in playmaking consistency. Player Comparison Correlation: Rattler's parallels with Jameis Winston and Jay Cutler suggest a trajectory towards becoming a resilient quarterback, focusing on improving decision-making to mitigate bust plays and enhance overall performance. 6). Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) PAA Per Play Rank: 68th nationally (0.345 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Penix demonstrates a classic pocket passer's profile with a blend of arm strength and accuracy, reflected in his Points Above Average (PAA) per play (0.345). Despite a moderate Boom% (48.0%, ranked 56th) and Bust% (34.0%, ranked 35th), Penix's tape shows a quarterback who can execute precise throws from the short to deep areas of the field. Ideal for a pro-style or West Coast offense, Penix's skill set aligns with a quarterback capable of managing the game effectively and making strong, accurate passes. Player Comparison Correlation: Penix's comparisons to Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones resonate with the idea that he could thrive in the right system by leveraging his quick decision-making and accuracy. These comparisons suggest Penix possesses the foundational skills to develop into a reliable starting quarterback, emphasizing the importance of a supportive team structure and an offensive scheme that aligns with his strengths. 7). Drake Maye (North Carolina) PAA Per Play Rank: 69th nationally (0.34 PAA Per Play) Performance & Style Correlation: Despite a lower Points Above Average (PAA) per play (0.34), Drake Maye's role in the Tar Heel offense was evident from his tape. However, in key 3rd down and obvious pass situations, his high Boom% (34.9%, ranked 124th) and high Bust% (41.9%, ranked 90th) indicate raw talent in improvisation but also highlight a necessity for improvement as a passer in high-leverage situations. His capability for making plays outside the structure is notable, but he needs to develop a greater trust in his pocket. His skill set is desirable in today's NFL, but he will need time to develop. Player Comparison Correlation: Maye's potential comparisons to Justin Herbert and Josh Allen highlight his ability to thrive in a system that values quarterbacks who can extend plays and make decisive throws. His comparisons make sense, as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert needed to improve consistency and decision-making when they entered the NFL. Advanced-Data Glossary PAA Per Play Definition: Points Above Average per pass play. This metric measures a quarterback's effectiveness by comparing the points earned on each pass play to the league average. A higher value indicates a quarterback contributes more points than the average per play, highlighting their efficiency and effectiveness in critical situations. Positive Play% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in a positive Expected Points Added (EPA). It reflects the quarterback's ability to consistently make plays that advance the team's position or score, with a higher percentage indicating more successful plays than total attempts. EPA Bust% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in a significant negative Expected Points Added (EPA), specifically less than -1. This metric identifies plays significantly decreasing a team's scoring opportunity or overall field position. A lower ranking (indicating fewer bust plays) is desirable, showing the quarterback's ability to avoid costly mistakes. Boom% Definition: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in an exceptionally successful play, defined by an EPA of at least +1. This indicates the quarterback's capability to create big, game-changing plays. A higher percentage represents a higher capability for making impactful plays. Total Points Earned in 2023 Definition: The total points a quarterback is responsible for through passing in high-leverage situations during the season. It aggregates the value of all positive plays made by the quarterback. A higher total indicates a greater contribution to the team's scoring efforts in critical situations. Total Pass Attempts in this situation Definition: The number of pass attempts made by the quarterback in high-leverage situations (3rd down and 5+ yards). This provides context for the sample size of the data, with more attempts offering a broader basis for evaluating the quarterback's performance.

  • 2024 NFL Draft: Ranking The Quarterbacks By Player Comparisons Ceiling vs. Floor Potential

    Next Level QB Analysis: Every Detail Matters The quarterback grading process is our most rigorous and detailed analysis. The industry standard for evaluating a player typically involves watching four full games to understand how a player operates in different situations. However, we delve deeper into the QB position due to its importance in football and its complexity compared to other sports. For QBs, we analyze an entire season of film, which is time-consuming. Additionally, we examine advanced data metrics for every conceivable situation and scenario, with an emphasis on high-leverage situations like 3rd down and obvious passing situations, 4th quarter drives when trailing, and throws versus pressure and blitz. The data collection is extensive, and we sometimes consult others with different viewpoints to gain additional insights. Once we have all of this, we analyze NFL Combine data for further details and gather intelligence through the player interview process and reported medical evaluations. Every detail matters when evaluating the QB position. Player Comparisons, Painting a Picture of The Ceiling vs. The Floor. The 2024 NFL Draft is teeming with talent at the QB position. Each top prospect comes with their strengths and weaknesses. Our analysis highlights each QB's player comparison, which considers height, weight values, and comparable play styles. This analysis aims to identify a ceiling-level player comparison, a mid-level comparison, and a floor-level player comparison. Quarterback Prospect Rankings Based On Player Comparison Ceilings 1. Caleb Williams, USC (6′ 1″, 216lbs) Play Style/Scheme Fit: Williams is a dynamic, dual-threat quarterback ideal for a modern spread offense. His mobility and arm strength allow him to extend plays and fit into systems similar to those used by Patrick Mahomes. Final Analysis: Projected as an elite NFL prospect, Williams combines exceptional arm talent with off-script ability, making him a potential franchise quarterback. However, he needs to improve his trust in structured plays. Player Comparisons: Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes - shares off-script brilliance and arm strength. Mid-Level: Aaron Rodgers - combines mobility with accuracy. Floor: Kyler Murray - mobile but must overcome bailing early from the pocket. 2. Drake Maye, North Carolina (6′ 4″, 223lbs) Play Style/Scheme Fit: Excelling in a spread offense, Maye is also capable in a pro-style system, showcasing a strong arm and pocket awareness. Final Analysis: With high-end starter potential, Maye's accuracy and mobility position him as a future NFL leader, though he needs to improve his deep accuracy. Player Comparisons: Ceiling: Josh Allen - similar off-script ability and mobility. Mid-Level: Justin Herbert - strong arm with the ability to make plays in and out of the pocket. Floor: Daniel Jones - capable but needs to maintain structure and avoid mistakes. 3. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (6′ 2″, 219lbs) Play Style/Scheme Fit: McCarthy fits best in a Shanahan/Payton-style offense, highlighting his mobility and short to intermediate passing strengths. Final Analysis: Shows potential as a high-level NFL starter with notable year-over-year improvements in footwork and mechanics at Michigan, particularly while under pressure. Player Comparisons: Ceiling: Joe Burrow - showcases clutch ability and accuracy. Mid-Level: Alex Smith - represents high-velocity throws and game management. Floor: Chad Pennington - intelligent but needs to improve deep throws. 4. Jayden Daniels, LSU (6′ 4″, 200lbs) Play Style/Scheme Fit: Ideal for RPO offenses, Daniels combines mobility with solid passing, suited for dynamic playmaking. Final Analysis: Despite concerns about his frame, Daniels' electrifying play and arm strength suggest a high NFL draft pick with top-20 potential. Player Comparisons: Ceiling: Lamar Jackson - high-level athleticism and improvisation. Mid-Level: Kyler Murray - shares mobility and playmaking. Floor: Justin Fields - dynamic but needs to enhance consistency under pressure. 5. Michael Penix Jr., Washington (6′ 3″, 214lbs) Play Style/Scheme Fit: A traditional pocket passer with strong arm strength, best fitting a pro-style or West Coast offense. Final Analysis: High-end starter potential if he overcomes injury history and enhances consistency, needing the right system for success. Player Comparisons: Ceiling: Tua Tagovailoa - strong, precise throws and good pocket presence. Mid-Level: Mac Jones - demonstrates good game management and accuracy. Floor: Case Keenum - solid but requires system support for success. 6. Bo Nix, Oregon (6′ 2″, 216lbs) Play Style/Scheme Fit: Nix is versatile, thriving in RPOs and schemes valuing mobility and off-script creativity. Final Analysis: Potential to be a solid NFL starter with improvements in footwork and consistency; his mobility and arm strength are assets. Player Comparisons: Ceiling: Jalen Hurts - similar mobility and playmaking ability. Mid-Level: Tim Tebow - showcases improvisational skills but needs accuracy refinement. Floor: Taysom Hill - versatile but limited as a traditional quarterback. 7. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (6′ 1″, 216lbs) Play Style/Scheme Fit: Fits creative schemes utilizing his mobility and arm strength. Final Analysis: A developmental prospect, Rattler's journey reflects growth and potential; he needs to focus on decision-making and consistency. Player Comparisons: Ceiling: Jameis Winston - strong arm and playmaking ability. Mid-Level: Jay Cutler - arm talent but must address decision-making. Floor: Matt Corral - potential yet unproven at the NFL level, requiring development.

  • 2024 NFL Draft: Top 100 Big Board Player Rankings Update

    Below are the top 20 players currently on the Football Scout 365 top 100 NFL Draft Big Board. Click here to view the entire top 100 player rankings. Drake Maye Falls, But His Film Is Undergoing a Second Look and Additional Opinions: After the NFL Combine, Drake Maye has experienced a drop in rankings due to emerging concerns about his footwork and mechanics. Despite this, his high-level potential remains notable; with the right development, he could emulate the success of players like Justin Herbert or Josh Allen. Caleb Williams At Number 3 Overall, His Development At USC Is Under Review: Caleb Williams has seen fluctuating rankings but concerns over his development, particularly due to a challenging 2023 at USC playing behind a bad offensive line while playing hero ball to make up for the bad defense. The adverse conditions forced him into a less desirable style of play that will not work in the NFL, but he still possesses elite talent. A conducive environment, preferably with a year to develop, could significantly benefit his transition to the NFL. Marvin Harrison Jr. Remains Number One On the Board: Despite not participating in the NFL Combine, Marvin Harrison Jr. maintains his position as the top prospect, largely thanks to his undeniable film and pedigree. He remains a strong bet for a successful NFL career. Rome Odunze Is Elite: Rome Odunze confirmed his elite status with a standout performance at the NFL Combine, showcasing speed, agility, and physicality that aligns with his impressive college tape. Quinyon Mitchell Is The Top-Rated Cornerback In This Draft: Quinyon Mitchell has risen to the top cornerback spot, surpassing expectations with his physical gifts and Combine performance. He's drawn comparisons to NFL veterans like Devin McCourty and Darius Slay, highlighting his readiness for the professional level. Top 20 Player Rankings On the Football Scout 365 NFL Draft Big Board Click here to view the full top 100 rankings Top 100 Positional Breakdown Quarterbacks: 7 Running Backs: 5 Wide Receivers: 22 Tight Ends: 2 Offensive Tackles: 13 Interior Offensive Line: 9 Interior Defensive line: 7 EDGE Rushers: 11 Linebackers: 4 Cornerbacks: 16 Safeties: 4 ​ (1). Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State, WR Ceiling Grade: Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Marvin Harrison Jr. is known for his exceptional route running, reliable hands, and ability to make plays downfield. He fits best in an offense that emphasizes vertical passing and allows him to utilize his size and athleticism to outmatch defenders. (2). Rome Odunze, Washington, WR Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Rome Odunze combines size, strength, and speed, making him a formidable presence on the outside. He excels in a vertical passing game where he can use his physicality to win contested catches. (3). Brock Bowers, Georgia, TE Ceiling Grade: Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Brock Bowers exhibits a dynamic blend of speed, strength, and receiving ability, making him a versatile threat in both the passing and blocking game. He thrives in systems that utilize the tight end as a primary receiver and mismatch weapon. (4). Caleb Williams, USC, QB Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Caleb Williams is a mobile quarterback with a strong arm, excellent vision, and improvisational skills. He fits well in a creative offense that allows him to extend plays and utilize his dual-threat capabilities. (5). Joe Alt, Notre Dame, OT Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Joe Alt is a technically sound and physically imposing offensive tackle. He is best suited for a balanced offense that values both pass protection and run blocking. (6). Dallas Turner, Alabama, ED Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Dallas Turner is a dynamic edge rusher known for his speed, agility, and ability to disrupt the backfield. He fits seamlessly into aggressive defensive schemes that prioritize pass rush and versatility. (7). Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo, CB Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Quinyon Mitchell is recognized for his excellent man coverage skills, agility, and ball-hawking ability. He is ideal for defensive schemes that employ heavy man-to-man coverage and rely on their corners to play on an island. (8). Nate Wiggins, Clemson, CB Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: Nate Wiggins is a physical and athletic cornerback with good ball skills and a competitive nature. He fits best in a defense that allows him to play aggressively, whether in press-man or zone coverage, leveraging his ability to disrupt passes and tackle effectively. (9). J.J. McCarthy, Michigan, QB Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: J.J. McCarthy showcases strong leadership, accuracy, and decision-making skills. He fits best in a West Coast or timing-based offense that values precision and quick reads. (10). Drake Maye, North Carolina, QB Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: Drake Maye is known for his strong arm, mobility, and poise in the pocket. He thrives in an offensive system that blends traditional pocket passing with the ability to make plays on the move. (11). Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State, OT Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: Taliese Fuaga stands out with his impressive size and strength, which make him particularly effective in run blocking. He fits best in a run-first offense that values offensive linemen who can dominate at the line of scrimmage and open up lanes for the running game. (12). Cooper DeJean, Iowa, CB Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Cooper DeJean is a versatile cornerback with a knack for making plays and a solid understanding of the game. He is well-suited to a scheme that values intelligent, adaptable defensive backs who can contribute in multiple ways. (13). Malik Nabers, LSU, WR Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: Malik Nabers is known for his explosive playmaking ability and versatility. He fits well in an offense that utilizes its wide receivers in various ways, including in the slot, outside, and in jet sweeps, to take advantage of his open-field agility and speed. (14). Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State, OT Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Olumuyiwa Fashanu excels in both pass protection and run blocking, showcasing exceptional footwork and technique. He is well-suited for a balanced offense that requires its offensive tackles to be strong in both facets of the game. (15). Jared Verse, Florida State, ED Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: Jared Verse stands out as a multifaceted edge rusher, able to adapt and make an impact in diverse defensive schemes. His ideal fit within the 4-3 defense is evident, but he also showcases the potential for the 3-4 defense, emphasizing his adaptability. (16). Jayden Daniels, LSU, QB Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: Daniels is a dual-threat quarterback, combining top-tier mobility and improvisational skills with solid passing ability. His style is suited for modern RPO (Run-Pass Option) offenses and systems that value mobility and off-script playmaking. (17). Brian Thomas Jr., LSU, WR Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: Brian Thomas Jr. is a tall, physically imposing wide receiver, ideal for offenses that emphasize a deep passing game. While he needs to refine his route running and run blocking, his size and ball-tracking ability make him a significant threat in vertical or spread offenses. (18). Laiatu Latu, UCLA, ED Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: Laiatu Latu is characterized by explosive quickness and formidable pass-rushing abilities, ideal for an odd front scheme. His skill set allows him to excel in aggressive, attacking defensive schemes, leveraging his pass-rushing skills and physicality. (19). Byron Murphy II, Texas, IDL Ceiling Grade: Near Elite Play Style And Scheme Fit: Byron Murphy II exhibits a powerful and aggressive style of play, especially effective in run defense. His skill set is particularly well-suited for traditional 4-3 defensive schemes where he can focus on stopping the run and pushing the pocket. (20). Amarius Mims, Georgia, OT Ceiling Grade: High-End Starter Potential Play Style And Scheme Fit: Amarius Mims combines size, strength, and agility, making him an impressive presence on the offensive line. His play style is marked by swift footwork and great lateral movement. Best suited for zone-blocking schemes.

  • 2024 NFL Draft: 10 Players That Helped Their Draft Stock The Most at The NFL Combine

    Below, I list Ten prospects who improved their 2024 NFL Draft stock by participating at the NFL Combine. Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas (5’ 11’’, 165lbs) Xavier Worthy is characterized by his exceptional speed and explosiveness, standing out as a premier deep threat capable of changing the dynamics of a game with his ability to separate from defenders. Worthy turned everyone's head with his record-breaking 4.21 40-yard dash. His blazing speed and strong production at Texas make him a potential first-round target for teams needing a vertical threat. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (6’ 0’’, 195lbs) Quinyon Mitchell's NFL combine performance aligns well with his varied and rich skill set, showcasing his significant physical attributes and football intelligence. His impressive 40-yard dash time (4.33) reflects his exceptional speed and ability to close distance quickly, which complements his preferred style of play in off-man or zone coverage. Mitchell solidified his reputation as a top cornerback prospect. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU (6’ 3’’, 209lbs) While he might get overshadowed by teammates, Thomas Jr. put up a solid 4.33 40-yard dash and has the production to match. Brian Thomas Jr. boasts an impressive physical profile suitable for both inside and outside receiving roles, marked by his size, speed, and agility. Despite occasional lapses in route-running, his physical gifts provide a strong foundation for further development. Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State (6’ 3’’, 254lbs) Initially, Chop Robinson was a top 20 prospect and saw a decline in momentum during the 2023 college football season. He reminded everyone that he has elite potential by showcasing his burst and bend in drills, alongside notable performances in the 40-yard dash (4.49 seconds) and 10-yard split (1.54 seconds). J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan (6’ 3’’, 219lbs) At the NFL Combine, McCarthy demonstrated solid arm strength and accuracy, particularly on throws to his right. However, he showed some inconsistency to his left during the throwing-on-air portion. At the NFL Combine, and on his film, You can see improvements in his footwork and mechanics from 2022 to 2023. Michael Penix, Jr., QB, Washington (6’ 2’’, 216lbs) Penix, like McCarthy, probably reinforced his 1st round NFL Draft potential. Penix smashed the throws on air displaying his excellent mechanics and his accuracy. He reportedly presented a clean medical evaluation at the combine as well. Braden Fiske, IDL, Florida State (6’ 4’’, 292lbs) Braden Fiske's draft stock has seen significant growth due to outstanding performances at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine. As a defensive lineman from Florida State, he topped the defensive tackle category with a 40-yard dash of 4.78 seconds, a vertical jump of 33.5 inches, and a broad jump of 9 feet 9 inches. At the 2024 NFL Combine, Fiske excelled in drill work, demonstrating notable speed and power, setting him apart from his competitors. Mike Sainristil, DB, Michigan (5’ 9’’, 182lbs) Mike Sainristil showcased his athleticism at the NFL Combine, ranking fourth in the broad jump (10 feet 11 inches) and seventh in the vertical (40 inches) among cornerbacks, alongside a commendable 4.47-second 40-yard dash. He also posted a sub-seven-second three-cone drill (6.99) and an elite 4.01-second 20-yard shuttle, indicating excellent agility and quickness. At the weigh-in, his nearly 31-inch arms provided him with a reach advantage over many peers, enhancing his potential impact as a slot defender. Jaylen Wright, RB Tennessee (5’ 11’’, 210lbs) Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright made a significant impression at the NFL Combine, showcasing his athletic prowess with standout performances, including a 4.38-second 40-yard dash, an 11'2" broad jump, and a 38" vertical leap. These results highlight Wright's explosive nature and exceptional breakaway speed. His performance at the combine, coupled with his size and athleticism, is likely to boost his standing on many NFL Draft boards, as teams value the dynamic potential he brings to the running back position. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia (6’ 8’’, 340lbs) Mims, standing at 6’8” and weighing 340 pounds, and with a wingspan exceeding seven feet, displayed unreal agility for a player his size at the NFL Combine. His NFL Combine performance included a 5.07-second 40-yard dash and a 9’3” broad jump. Although a tweaked hamstring cut his day short, Mims's mere presence and metrics were enough to leave a significant impact. At only 21 years old, his combine performance, coupled with surprising refinement on tape despite limited experience, suggests Mims possesses one of the highest ceilings among tackles in the 2024 NFL Draft, positioning him as a potential top 10 pick.

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