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Tua Tagovailoa has proven to be an exceptional talent and the most talented signal caller of the Nick Saban era at Alabama. I took a more in-depth look at Tua's first two games of 2018 as the Alabama starter, and his numbers so far are proving he is a true Heisman favorite. Through the first Two Games of 2018 Tagavailoa has been extremely efficient in all phases, but the area that stands out the most are the third down and obvious passing situations more specifically third down and ten or more yards to go. Tua has faced seven third and ten situations in two games completing seven passes and converting six of the seven attempts. His Points per opportunity is 257% (three TD's out of seven attempts). The most impressive stat is his 19.86 average yards per attempt. Only one of the charted seven passes thrown were underneath the sticks requiring yards after the catch to convert the third and long. All of the other attemps were at or beyond the sticks. Tua shows good footwork when in the pocket, and exceptional pocket awareness. Two of the six completions that are gifted below Tagavailoa steps into the pocket driving deep while keeping his eyes downfield and throwing absolute darts. WK2 Arkansas State: 1st QTR 5:04 3rd Down & 11 and in the same game WK2 Arkansas State: 1st QTR 1:37 3rd Down & 13 which is the best of the six with Tua sidestepping two defenders, he drives the pocket keeps his eyes downfield making a perfect NFL calibre throw to the sideline where only his receiver can make a play. I put together gifs for all six of his conversions over the first two games of the season. They are in order. The very last play below is the best of the group. WK1 Louisville: 1st QTR 13:54 3rd Dwn & 13 WK1 Louisville: 1st QTR 8:24 3rd Dwn & 10 WK1 Louisville: 2nd QTR :15 3rd Dwn & 10 WK2 Arkansas State: 1st QTR 5:04 3rd Dwn & 11 WK2 Arkansas State: 1st QTR 3:09 3rd Dwn & 11 WK2 Arkansas State: 1st QTR 1:37 3rd Dwn & 13

FS365 measures players total efficiency for all QB's, WR,s, TE's using the same method. We take a player's total yards gained and divide that by their total points scored. This measure tells us how many yards a player must gain on average to score a single point.

FS365 measures players total efficiency for all QB's, WR,s, TE's using the same method. We take a player's total yards gained and divide that by their total points scored. This measure tells us how many yards a player must gain on average to score a single point. Below we categorize the top 20 players by position and then finish the analysis by measuring the top five in college football overall through the first two weeks of the season. P5 QB Total Efficiency P5 RB Total Efficiency P5 WR-TE Total Efficiency

We examine the matchup using our unique situational analysis tool. What we measure? Total offensive and defensive yards per attempt efficiency by situation. Total offensive and defensive situational Tendencies by percentage. Identifying your opponent's situational tendencies can help you recognize potential strengths and weaknesses that are essential when creating a successful gameplan. The Football Scout 365 Situational analysis breaks down every situation by area of the field, down, quarter, half, and situational 3rd downs. You can use this tool for pre-game, in-game and post-game analysis of your team and opponents situational performance. 2018 UCLA @ Oklahoma Situational Overview UCLA @ Oklahoma Situational Yards Per Attempt UCLA @ Oklahoma Situational Tendencies by percentage

The FS365 Player usage analysis tool measures offensive and defensive player production. Pictured below you can view the Michigan offensive and Defensive player production, followed by the Notre offensive and defensive player production. Michigan Offensive Player Production Michigan Defensive Production Notre Dame Offensive Production Notre Dame Defensive Production

The vaunted Michigan defense in the first half of the game did what they were supposed to do, get Notre Dame into third and medium, or more. The issue is that Notre Dame found ways to attack Michigan's aggressive third-down defense and converted. On Notre Dame's 1st drive, Wimbush faced third down and ten on the third play of the game. Michigans defense did its job forcing a third and long and appeared poised to set the tone for the start of the game. 3rd & 10 at ND 25 (14:26 - 1st) Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 16 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST down Notre Dame lined up in a 12 personal with twins to the right of the formation. Chase Claypool who was lined up wide to the right of the formation would motion into the formation presnap preparing to run a drive route to the middle of the Michigan defense. This is where you can see offseason Notre Dame preparation pay off as Michigan brought four on the rush and blitzed Devin Bush Jr. who by blitzing left the middle of the field open for the underneath drive route. Brandon Wimbush had 2.2 seconds to get the ball off accurately hitting Claypool perfectly in stride about three yards beyond the line of scrimmage leaving Claypool responsible for the additional seven yds needed to get the first down. Because the pass was executed with the receiver in stride, it allowed Claypool to get upfield without slowing down. The most impressive part of the play is Wimbush's poise when making the throw knowing Winovich would make him pay the price. 3rd & 9 at ND 31 (9:06 - 1st) Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 26 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Metellus) to the NDame 46 for a 1ST down. Metellus ejected for Targeting. The next third down conversion was even more impressive and would leave a lasting impression for the rest of the game. On this play, Notre Dame is backed up near its goal line. Notre Dame decided to go four wide with 11 personnel (1 back and one TE). The TE on the play is Alize Mack who is flexed into the right slot position. Presnap Notre Dame recognizes the man coverage, and LB Noah Furbush lined up on Alize Mack in the slot. This was a fade route all the way, and the ball placement could not have been more perfect as the LB Noah Furbush was trailing and safety Josh Mettelus was on his way to separate Mack from the football. Mack would take a shot and still hang on to the football. The long-term effects of this play are Notre Dame extending the drive and scoring a few plays later on a deep shot from midfield, and the ejection of Michigan Starting safety Josh Mettelus for rest of the game. 3rd & 6 at 50 (7:32 - 1st) Brandon Wimbush run for 7 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST down This is the play that would set the tone for the rest of the game in regards to Wimbush using his legs to move the chains. This was one of two third downs on the same drive (that includes the one we discussed above). Notre Dame lines up in 11 personnel with HB/TE Cole Kmet motion to the right creating a 2x2 formation. The motion by the TE allowed Brandon Wimbush to identify the Man coverage presnap. Post snap Wimbush recognized Devin Bush looking left keeping an eye on the RB who was running a route to the right of the offensive formation. That slight step in the wrong direction and the man coverage with the DBs backs turned opened a huge run lane for Wimbush to get an easy 1st down. The next play Notre Dame takes the kill shot and converts it going up 14-0 in the first QTR. The narrative for the entirety of the first half was Michigan's inability to get off of the field on third down. Even when the defense did well on first and second down, Notre Dame used creative ways, (not complicated) to exploit Michigans aggressive attack. Michigan's defense would recover in the second half after allowing Notre Dame to convert 5 of 9 third downs in the first half; they held them to 2 for 6 in the second half. Michigan has major flaws on both sides of the football. The defense is far less flawed than the offense and can recover by not making mental mistakes and changing up their coverage philosophy against dual-threat QBs (more zone). The Michigan Offense needs the defense to lead the way while it works on improving its pass blocking. This year's Michigan team reminds me of the 2015 team when they travelled to Utah and lost at night on the road by the same score (24-17) with a transfer QB (Jake Rudock) who led Michigan to a 9-3 record in Harbaugh's first season at Michigan. The difference is this is year four for Jim Harbaugh, and these are all his recruits. The ceiling as of right now appears to be similar to the 2015 team (9-3) with a floor that could be worse than a year ago. The schedule does not get easier for Michigan as they face Both MSU and OSU on the road. They also have Wisconsin and Penn State. The floor is 6-6, and that would put Harbaugh on the hot seat. 9-3 with a win at MSU and a close loss to OSU in the finale will give Harbaugh one more year to get this right. The motive for the remainder of Michigans season should be to learn from the Notre Dame loss and use that as the measuring stick for how you prepare for the rest of the schedule. MSU on the road will be difficult, but Spartan stadium is nothing compared to Notre Dame. ThiThe MSU game is the one game they must win. Ohio State on the other hand who knows, but at this point, OSU is far and away better than Michigan aside from the 31 points and numerous big plays allowed against Oregon State. For Notre Dame, Brian Kelly acquitted himself well. Notre Dame played disciplined football and played better prepared than Michigan. Notre Dame's defensive line looked good and if they can continue to play at a high level the ceiling for the Irish is 10-2, and the floor is 8-4. They should be 4-0 when Stanford comes to South Bend on Sept 29th. If they win at Home against Stanford, they face Va Tech on the road the following week. If the Irish can come out of those two games 6-0, Irish faithful can begin to believe that the playoff might be a realistic goal for the Irish to attain n 2018. Notre Dame is not yet a championship level team, but their schedule may give them the opportunity to compete for one in 2018.

The line moved and now favors Michigan by 1.5. Notre Dame has been a 1.5 point favorite throughout the fall. Odds Shark has Notre Dame covering the spread and winning 27.4-25, with the total score going over the 46.5. https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/michigan-notre-dame-odds-september-1-2018-974453 When I first reviewed the over-under for this game, I immediately believed that Vegas thought this would be a 24-23 type of game. The Michigan defense allowed a point on 20% of the total passes attempted against them in 2017. If I were a betting man I would take the under in this game, and Michigan to win 27-17.

For Michigan, it's about their ability to protect the QB long enough for him to get past his first read without being ear holed into concussion protocol. For Notre Dame, it is about whether or not Brandon Wimbush has improved his passing game (49.5% completion percentage in 2017) enough to fend off his backup Ian Book who has proven to be the better passer. Returning Starters Analysis Matchup and Starters Analysis Please note the following: Bold letters represent returning starters. 24 point star represents elite level performer. 6 point star represents up and coming star. Plain team colored circle represents average player. Red Highlighted outer circle represents below average player Jim Harbaugh fired his best friend, best man and "run game coordinator" Tim Drevno, who was also the offensive line coach and replaced him with Ed Warinner who by all accounts coming out of Schembechler Hall has simplified the offensive lines blocking schemes and terminology enough that the players are now showing more consistency in both pass blocking and run blocking. Warinner who is a zone blocking technician who was once the offensive coordinator and O-line coach at Ohio State under Urban Meyer has brought a nmuch needed optimism with him to Ann Arbor. Michigan did not have a spring game to analyze due to weather cancellation, so my guess is as good as anyone else as to what the offensive line will look like in 2018. We do know that Michigan returns a lot of experience and right at the center of the offensive line will be Cesar Ruiz. Ruiz is expected to be the leader of the offensive in 2018. Ruiz was also Shea Patterson's center when they attended high school at IMG Academy, so there is some familiarity between the two most important pieces on the Michigan offense. The Center position in football is just as important as the QB. The center is the one who is responsible for pre-snap reads and will help make pre-snap adjustments by calling out to his fellow lineman what scheme to use based on the defensive alignment. Time will tell if Cesar Ruiz will live up to his 4-star hype. Michigan and Notre Dame Pass Offense in 2017 the Michigan offensive line struggled when it faced higher tiered opponents giving up 36 sacks, or one sack every 9.61 att. And ranking 11th in passing offense. Notre Dame was not any better giving up 30 sacks, or 1 sack per 11.73 att. Michigan and Notre Dame Rush Offense The Michigan rush offense in 2017 performed well at times but still ranked 49th nationally giving up a TFL every 6.37 att. Notre Dame behind two first-round NFL draft Picks G Quentin Nelson and T Mike McGlinchey who were both top ten picks. Add in Josh Adams who rushed for 1400+ yds who also left for the NFL and you are left with an unproven backfield in 2018 and two significant holes to fill on the offensive line. Notre Dame has done a great job with offensive line development under Brian Kelly, and it will be interesting to see what the new starters can do against the Michigan defensive line. Michigan and Notre Dame Run Defense Analysis The Michigan defense will be top five once again this year. In 2017 they ranked 18th against the run and forced a TFL every 3.96 att. Forcing 3rd and long will be key. Notre Dame was not as stout and ranked 51st against the run and forced a TFL every 6.41 att. This number indicates to me that if Notre Dame has not improved from last year defensively, Michigan should be able to find itself in a lot of 3rd and manageable situations. Michigan and Notre Dame Pass Defense Analysis Michigan's pass defense was number one in 2017 sacking the QB every 7.81 att. Notre Dame ranked 53rd in 2017 and was not as potent when getting to the QB forcing a sack every 18.54 att. The final Review: Michigan Defense The one thing that is certain for Michigan will be the defense. The core of the defense is right up front on the defensive line where two defensive ends Rashan Gary, and Chase Winovich who combined for 30.5 TFL's and 14 Sacks in 2017 is primed to wreak havoc. The second level of the defense will be led by two more experienced players, MLB Devin Bush, and Viper Khaleke Hudson. These two combined for 27.5 TFL's and 13 sacks. The third level of the defense has become an embarrassment of riches for Michigan Defensive Coordinator Don Brown. Michigan had the nations top pass defense in 2017, and the two men who bolstered the secondary were defensive backs Lavert Hill and David Long who combined for four ints and 13 PBU's. The Final Review: How Can Brandon Wimbush Overcome This Fierce Michigan Defense? For Notre Dame it is about whether or not Brandon Wimbush has improved his passing game (49.5% completion percentage in 2017) enough to fend off his backup Ian Book who has proven to be the better passer. Yes, Brandon Wimbush will have a mountain to climb in this game, and if he has improved his passing game, it may not be reflected in week one against the Michigan defense. But let's discuss some numbers on Wimbush starting with his recruiting ranking and his size. Brandon Wimbush came to Notre Dame in the 2015 cycle as a four-star, third-ranked dual-threat QB nationally according to 247 sports. He is 6-1 226 lbs and has an explosive running ability. Wimbush gained 801 yds rushing in 2017 on 141 attempts and scored an incredible 14 touchdowns. Wimbush scored one point every 9.5 yds gained. But it is not the run game that Wimbush is lacking; it is his accuracy as a passer. In 2017 Wimbush completed only 49.5% of his passes and was 87th nationally in total passer rating. Using our situational tendency analysis, we can try to identify some of the critical areas that Wimbush will need to be successful on Saturday night if Notre Dame is going to win. I filtered the analysis to focus on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down situations and I immediately recognized that Wimbush hits the big play (BPO) when passing on first down in 2017. This may have had a lot to do with the now departed RB Josh Adams who is in the NFL. Adams averaged nearly seven yds per attempt in 2017 making first down BPO a little easier on Wimbush. The knock is not on Wimbush's long game; it has been on his short to intermediate throws that require more precision into tighter windows. The windows tighten on third and obvious pass situations in football. Wimbush may get into trouble on Saturday night if he is still wildly inaccurate on short and intermediate throws. Michigans third-down pass defense allowed a 28% conversion rate on 98 total attempts in 2017. If Notre Dame cannot run the football effectively on first and second down and get into third and 7-9 yds to go situations against the Michigan front and secondary, they will struggle to score points. Click to see view Depth charts and matchups Click here to view our Situational Tendency analysis for Notre Dame v. Michigan

We examine the matchup using our unique situational analysis tool. What we measure? Total offensive and defensive yards per attempt efficiency by situation. Total offensive and defensive situational Tendencies by percentage. Identifying your opponent's situational tendencies can help you recognize potential strengths and weaknesses that are essential when creating a successful gameplan. The Football Scout 365 Situational analysis breaks down every situation by area of the field, down, quarter, half, and situational 3rd downs. You can use this tool for pre-game, in-game and post-game analysis of your team and opponents situational performance. Michigan @ Notre Dame Situational Overview When you are looking at a tendency analysis, it can be overwhelming trying to identify the numbers that matter the most. This report is meant to give an overview of overall team efficiency. Below we are previewing the Notre Dame offense against the Michigan defense. My favorite stat is the points per opportunity. For example in 2017, Notre Dame held a 34% points per opportunity average. This stats takes the total plays attempted in a given situation and divided that by total points scored, meaning the Fighting Irish scored a point on 34% of their offensive passing attempts in 2017. Michigan @ Notre Dame Situational Yards Per Attempt In the next analysis, we take a look at situational yards per attempt. For example, I like to look at yards gained by down. In 2017 Notre Dame averaged 7.03 yds per pass attempt on first down. The Michigan defense allowed 7.1 yds per pass attempt on first down. I like to measure an offense and a defense by how many yards they give up on 1st and 2nd down. The teams that gain 3+ yards on 1st and 2nd down put their offense in a far better position when making play calls on 3rd down and 4 yards to go than a 3rd and 5 or 6 to go situation. Limiting a team to less than 3 yards on 1st and 2nd down can make 3rd down far more predictable for a defense. Michigan @ Notre Dame Situational Tendencies by percentage The percentages measure is important when you are a coach. It helps the defensive coordinator identify tendencies on a deeper level; by helping to recognize what percentage of play will be run or pass based on personnel groups. For example, in 2017 Notre Dame attempted a run play on 28% of its first down attempts vs 17% passing. This is helpful for an offense who wants to break tendency and keep defenses guessing.

Michigan @ Notre Dame September 1st 2018 at 7:30pm on NBC. Previewing the projected Starters and matchup's for Michigan @ Notre Dame. Check back for more in-depth analysis will be added regarding the matchups throughout this week. Please note the following: Bold letters represent returning starters. 24 point star represents elite level performer. 6 point star represents up and coming star. Plain team colored circle represents average player. Highlighted outer circle represents below average player. Michigan @ Notre Dame Returning Starters Analysis Notre Dame Offensive Returning Production Notre Dame Defense Returning Production Michigan Offensive Returning Production Michigan Defensive Returning Production

What Does ESPN FPI schedule strength and projected ranking predict and do we agree? What I like about the ESPN FPI is that it gives us a baseline measure of how many games a team should win based on analytics. The reason I love ESPN FPI is that it gives me something to compare my analysis too. Some of what they project I may not agree with, but the additional data points help give me a baseline measure of anticipated results. I also use this to identify the strength of schedule. There are a few teams above that I think will have more wins than the FPI projects, such as West Virginia who is predicted to win six games, Michigan who is projected to win 8, and UCLA expected 5.5 wins. I think all three of these teams will have two, or more wins than anticipated in 2018. I am going to dig a little deeper into each teams schedule and put out another analysis before the season starts that discusses schedule strength and where each team in our BGA analysis should finish in 2018.

QB Production Leaving, Returning When I began this analysis I had a number of different categories to measure, but I wanted to narrow the scope to one category measuring efficiency by identifying how many yds it took to score a single point. Among the 24 BGA teams that we are analyzing it was JT Barrett from 2017 that led the 24 BGA teams in this category scoring one point every 87 yds gained. So what does this measure mean and how does it apply to 2018? A total of 1/3 of the teams we chose for our BGA analysis are replacing a starter at QB in 2018. The remaining 16 teams all have a QB returning or a high profile transfer with previous starting experience. The top QB to watch on this list is West Virginia's Wil Grier who scored a point every 102 yds. His 64% completion percentage and 34 TD's were good numbers in 2017, but he will need to improve his att to int ratio in 2018 if West Virginia plans to win the Big 12. The key factor I look at is the returning starters on the Mountaineer offensive line (4) and the continuity they will have going into 2018. West Virginia should have one of the most explosive offenses in college football.