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WHAT IS HIGH IMPACT PLAY RATE (HIP RATE)? High Impact Play Rate accounts for big in-game moments such as sacks, turnovers, TFL's, and explosive plays. Our High Impact Play Rate analysis works as a diagnostic tool created to help identify the critical areas of focus when performing an every play film review. MEASURING THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH IMPACT PLAY (HIP RATE) Within every football game, there are critical moments that factor into whether a team wins' or loses the game. Coaches and analysts point to these factors during their post-game analysis. High Impact Plays provide momentum, so we created a way to measure the rate of High Impact Play (HIP Rate) Rate occurrence. APPLYING HIGH IMPACT PLAY RATE (HIP RATE) Our High Impact Play Rate analysis works as a diagnostic tool created to help identify the critical areas of focus when performing an every play film review. HIP Rate is the starting point of every analysis that we perform.  THE VALUE OF HIGH IMPACT PLAYS We are actively studying the value of High Impact plays and their effect on team winning percentages. The study will be in its third year of research, where it seeks to identify the correlation between each variable. Our study has concluded that even when one or two variables may appear related within the door remains open for the potential of a second or third variable. Every play analysis allows us to surgically identify the potential second or third factor within a momentum-changing scenario. HIGH IMPACT PLAY RATE DIFFERENTIAL STUDY Our current High Impact Play Rate study uses the differential of each metric against itself; for example, sacks for vs. sacks allowed. We then take the differential between the two variables and connect it to the average team win percentage. For example, Team A has 22 total sacks for vs. 19 sacks allowed on the year (+3). We then examine the winning percentage of team A (62%). We can conclude that team A's (+3) sack differential could be directly impacting their 62% win rate. THE CORE FIVE MEASURABLES Third Down Stop Differential Explosive Play Differential Sack Differential Interception Differential Fumble Differential We examined the NFL High Impact Play Rate differential averages for the top third, middle third, and bottom third of the league as a whole in each of the core five categories. The objective is to identify the correlation between each differential and its connection between team win percentages among teams in the top third, middle third, and bottom third of the NFL. As discussed earlier, the High Impact Play Rate differential does show a correlation between winning and losing football games. We have concluded that High Impact Play Rate works well as a diagnostic analysis that often requires a more in-depth evaluation of the facts. USING EVERY PLAY ANALYSIS TO IDENTIFY 2ND AND 3RD VARIABLES HIDDEN WITHIN THE FILM High Impact Play Rate is the first part of a three-prong analysis system that Football Scout 365 can perform when evaluating team performance. The High Impact Play Rate, when paired with our more in-depth every play situational analysis, allows us to match the High Impact Play Rate variables with additional variables found deep within our every play situational analysis. WHAT IS EVERY PLAY SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS? We created a customizable (to fit your needs) every play evaluation process made for coaches that analyzes every situation, from down & distance, field position, offensive and defensive personnel groupings, play type, and play area. The custom analysis process can use 70 different metrics, more or less, based on your needs. THE CORE FIVE VARIABLES IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE BASES ON RATE OF OCCURRENCE Third-Down Stop Differential Highest Rate Of Occurrence (12.24%) Third down stops rank at the top of the five core High Impact Play Rate categories. Offenses want to sustain drives just as much as defenses wish to get off of the field. The data concluded that 3rd down stops carry the highest weight of the top five evaluated High Impact Play measures. Teams in the top third of 3rd down differential, meaning that their offense sustained drives at a high rate, and their defense got off of the field at a high rate averaged 9.93 wins per season since 2018 (62%). Explosive Play Differential Rate Of Occurrence (6.26%) The second-highest rate of occurrence among the five measures is explosive play differential. Teams in the top third of explosive play differential win an average of 9.35 games (58.46%). Sack Differential Rate Of Occurrence (3.96% The third-highest rate of occurrence among the five measures is sack differential. Teams in the top third of sack differential win an average of 10.15 games (63.46%). INT Differential Rate Of Occurrence (1.28%) The fourth-highest rate of occurrence among the five measures is INT differential. Teams in the top third of INT differential win an average of 10.55 games (65.96%). Fumble Differential Rate Of Occurrence (0.74%) The fifth-highest rate of occurrences among the five measures is fumble differential. Teams in the top third of fumble differential win an average of 10.55 games (65.96%). High Impact Play Rate After we combine all five of the above variables, we can calculate the total High Impact Play Rate. Teams in the top third of the High Impact Play Rate analysis win 10.45 games per year (65.33%). All four teams who participated in the last two Super Bowls ranked in the top third of the High Impact Play Rate. 70% of teams in the top third since 2018 made the playoffs, 60% won their division, 20% made it to the Super Bowl, and 10% have won the Super Bowl. 33.3% of NFL teams made the playoffs if ranked in the middle third of the High Impact Play Rate measure, while 16.7% have won their division. Teams who rank in the bottom third do not make the playoffs or win their division since 2018. The Ongoing Study The 2020 NFL season will provide another year of data for us to evaluate. During the 2020 season, we will use the High Impact Play Rate analysis to examine in-season NFL team performance. Each week we will provide a report on the High Impact Play Rate team of the week. We plan to continuously study High Impact Play Rate, making changes when needed, and adding additional data points if we conclude the need for more data. As of August 2020, our study has found that the High Impact Play Rate differential directly correlates with team winning percentage and scoring differential. Applying High Impact Play Rate At Different Levels Of Football High Impact Play Rate provides coaches and team analysts with one level of analysis. It is not the defining factor we use to determine performance. Analytics play a small role but can serve as a guide when trying to quickly pinpoint areas of success, or concern before performing an every play film review with your football team. Football Scout 365 aspires to become a provider of customizable scouting and analytics tools and processes built to fit all levels of football. Our Three-Prong Approach Every analysis begins with the High Impact Play Rate analysis that serves as a diagnostic overview. Once Football Scout 365 Analysts pinpoint the critical area of focus using HIP Rate analysis, we dive deeper to perform every play situational analysis using 70+ different metrics to examine every player and every play. Once the situational every play analysis is complete, we bring the data to life by creating a visual presentation for coaches to use during film review with their team. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube

The 2020 Dallas Cowboys Offensive line ranks 5th in the NFL according to our preseason Football Scout 365 NFL offensive line rankings. Reviewing the 2019 Dallas Cowboys Offensive Line In 2019, The Cowboys ran the football to the left or right edge (C, or D Gap) a combined 233 times averaging 5.4 yds per attempt. When running to the edge left (Tyron Smith) the cowboys averaged 5.4 yds per attempt, when running to the edge right (La'el Collins) the Cowboys averaged 5.3 yds per attempt. Zeke Elliott Can Claim A Permanent Residence Status Between The Tackles Zeke loves to run inside the A Gaps. In 2019, 22% of Zekes 300+ rush attempts occurred to the center's right or left hip. Zeke averaged 4.4 yds per rush attempt between the A Gaps. What Do They Mean When They Refer To The Gaps On The Offensive Line? Depending on the run-type or block scheme, plays like power or zone are better suited to be run at a specific look. Your coach will say, run a Power Right to the (1) technique (A-Gap), the players will understand the direction of the play call. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube

Mayfield's RPO Efficiency Remains a Strength 7.8 yds per RPO run/pass Att. 2nd only to Kyle Allen among QB's with at least 50 RPO Pass Att. Mayfield Struggled with longer developing plays (5-7 step drops) In 2019, Mayfield struggled with accuracy on 5-7 step drops, completing 51.5% of his throws ranking 31st in the NFL. According to PFF, in 2018, Mayfield completed better than 63% and was in the top 5. Mayfield Struggled with longer developing plays (5-7 step drops) Mayfield threw 21 Int's in 2019 compared to 14 in 2018. Both are bad. Only Winston was worse in 2019. Baker did admit that he forced throws to Beckham and Landry. Mayfield ranked 4th in the NFL in dropped passed by his intended receivers with 30.  Play Calling/Scheme In 2019, Baker faced 3rd and long plays consistently where the Browns ranked 24th in average 3rd down yds to go (7.8). Mayfield faced more pressure due to having a higher rate of obvious passing situations. Third and long plays also eliminated the effective nature of the RPO. Mayfield has been scheme dependent so far in his young career and will need to develop in key areas starting with improving his ability to call out protections pre-snap to help his offensive line. With Stefanski as the new head coach, the expectation is that the Browns will emphasize running the football, which can help set up play-action and place Mayfield in more manageable throwing situations on 2nd and 3rd down. Under Freddie Kitchens, the Browns found themselves behind the chains on 2nd and 3rd down consistently in 2019, forcing the need to run longer developing pass plays (5-7 step drops, or shotgun plays of equivalent depth) that would allow pressure to get home forcing Mayfield off of his spot. The Stefanski Effect In Cleveland Play Action Pass Game Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins ranked 8th in the NFL in total play-action pass rate while also averaging 9.5 yds per pass attempt (10th). RPO's Under Stefanski, Cousins attempted only one RPO in 2019 Sacks/Pressure/Blitz Rate In 2019, Kirk Cousins faced a blitz on 24% of his pass attempts (4th among QB's with at least ten starts). Cousins was sacked 28 times with a sack rate of 6.31% (9th among QB's with 10+ starts). Cousins was under pressure on 10.81% of his total pass attempts (18th). Even when under pressure, Cousins avoided the big mistake throwing only 6 INT's and compiling a QB Rating of 99.7. He also ranked 8th in the NFL in throws under pressure completing 41%. Play Calling/Scheme The Browns have a lot of tools that Stefanski can deploy in year one. We expect that the Browns will run a heavy dose of 12 personnel with both Njoku and Hooper bookending the offensive front. Stefanski also has one of the top young premiere RB's in Nick Chubb and another one to back him up in Kareem Hunt. In Minnesota, Stefanski was run heavy on 1st downplays ranking near the top of the NFL, running 57% of the time. The Vikings averaged 5.5 yds per play (run or pass combined). 2nd down is where the Vikings imposed their will in the run game running it 51% of the time (3rd highest), averaging six yds per play (6th highest) (run or pass combined). The Vikings ran the football 476 times in 2019 (4th most). On third down, the Vikings capitalized by converting a first down on 31.54% of their plays (11th best). The Vikings were in the top 3rd of the league in average yds per play on 3rd down attempts. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube

Titans Became More Balanced With Tannehill In the 12 games post-Marcus Mariota, Tannehill was fantastic, completing 70% of his throws for 2742 yds and a 22/6 TD/INT ratio. The Titan's offense became more balanced after the change from Mariota to Tannehill. From week one to six, the Titans averaged 291 total yds, 103 yds rushing and 187 yds passing. The final 12 games, including the playoffs, the Titans averaged 379 yds per game with 162 yds on the ground vs. 217 yds through the air. The Titans offense increased total yardage production by 30%. Play Action Pass A large part of the increase involved the offensive balance and the use of the play-action pass. The Titans increased their play-action yds per attempt from 9.65 under Mariota the first six weeks, to 13.04 yds per attempt the next 12 games with Tannehill. It Helps to Have Derrick Henry Derrick Henry faced an eight-man box on 35% of his snaps in 2019, a number that opened up play-action passing opportunities. Henry posted 1504 yds, and 16 TD's in 2019. The Titan's success hinges Derrick Henry's ability to run the football, and the offensive line is continuing to improve. The Titans offensive line ranks 8th best entering the 2020 NFL season and is on the rise. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube

In 2019, the Ravens OL was dominant inside and out. On runs between the guards, the Ravens averaged 5.33 yds per run. On runs to the left and right tackles, or TE's, inside, or outside shade, the Ravens averaged 6.75 yds per rush attempt. 3rd Ranked OL According to Our Preseason Positional Analysis The Effect of Zone Read The inside-outside run game success directly coincides with the defenses focus on containing Lamar Jackson's ability to get to the edge on a zone read, or designed runs. Defenses will attempt to contain the outside, opening gaps on the inside. Lamar Jackson Outside Running 46% of Lamar Jackson's Rush Attempts, occurred from LG to the outside of the LT in 2019 averaging 9.33 Yds per Att. Mark Ingrams Inside Running 52% of Mark Ingram's Rush Attempts, occurred between the center's left shade, and the RG outside shade in 2019 averaging 4.05 Yds Per Attempt. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube

2018 LSU Pass Offense The 2018 LSU pass offense amassed a respectable 2970 yds (63rd), completing 59.7% (85th), with an overall team passer rating of 134.26. 2018 Explosive Passing Plays The Tigers produced explosive plays in their pass game of 15 yds or more on 68 of their 387 pass attempts in 2018 (60th). They hit explosive plays of 25 yds or longer 26 times (72nd). 2018 3rd Down Passing LSU converted 34 first downs on 98 pass attempts with a completion rate of 52%, and a team passer rating of 103.93. The Tigers ranked 79th in total third-down pass conversions in 2018. 2018 Red Zone Passing In the red zone, LSU ranked last nationally in QB rating (84.57). The Tigers only scored six pass TD's (108th). LSU was not a bad offense in 2018, but they needed to modernize and invigorate the offense in several areas, especially the red zone and on third down. Joe Brady The innovative coach of choice for coach Ed O would be the 29-year-old Joe Brady. Brady wouldn't have to travel far from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. Brady was an offensive assistant for the New Orleans Saints and worked under Sean Payton, who is known as one to the top offensive innovators in the NFL. Joe Brady's Prior Experience Brady started his career at William & Mary coaching Linebackers in 2013. He then moved on to Penn State as a Graduate Assistant in 2015. In 2017, he would take an offensive assistant post with the New Orleans Saints. In 2019, Brady became the LSU Pass Game Coordinator, and right after the Tigers National Championship win, Brady took the open Offensive Coordinator position offered to him by new Head Coach Matt Rhule with the Carolina Panthers. Brady Has risen through the ranks quickly and is now the youngest Offensive Coordinator in the NFL. The Joe Brady Coaching Style and Philosophy Like Sean Payton, Brady appears to have an ability to adapt to personnel. He said as much while speaking at his Panthers introductory press conference. Brady mentioned the importance of adapting to your personnel. What does this mean? It means that you have to be multiple in your scheme, and creative based on your personnel. Your Personnel changes often in the NFL, and Joe Brady's adaptation philosophy is one that can succeed in the NFL. The 2019 Record-Breaking LSU Tiger Offensive Ascension Not all credit goes to Brady, who split his duties with another Coordinator Steve Ensminger who was the LSU offensive coordinator in 2018. The Ensminger, Brady pairing allowed for a more seasoned coaching vet to gain insights and knowledge from a brilliant up and coming coach. Innovating the LSU pass offense was the sole intention of hiring Joe Brady hence his title (Pass Game Coordinator). The Effect of Joe Brady by The Numbers In 2019 The 2018 LSU offense as a whole averaged 402 yds per game and ranked 69th in the nation. In 2019, the LSU pass offense averaged 401.6 yds per game. Again, LSU averaged 401.6 yds PASSING in 2019 vs. their entire offensive per game average of 402 yds per game the year prior. This one stat by itself is enough evidence, but the deeper you look into the passing offense, you can gain insights into the how and why behind the rise of the 2019 LSU offense. 2019 LSU Pass Offense by The Numbers The Tigers Pass offense averaged 401.6 yds per game (2nd) and threw the football on 52% of their total plays averaging 10.62 yds per attempt (5th). The Tigers converted 1st downs on 43% of their total pass plays (3rd). They completed 75% of their passes and had an overall team passer rate of 197.4 (2nd). 2019 Explosive Passing Plays The Tigers pass offense hit on plays of 15 yards or longer 9.4 times per game (1st). On explosive plays 25 yards or longer, the Tigers hit on 60 of their 567 pass attempts (1st). 2019 3rd Down Passing LSU converted 43 first downs on third-down passing attempts (35th). Compare this to the 2018 rank of 79th, and it is a drastic difference based on ranking, but the Tigers only converted nine more 1st downs in the passing game in 2019. 2018 vs 2019 Red Zone Passing LSU's offense took a significant jump in red-zone production from 2018. In 2018 the Tigers had a total passer rate of 134.26, completion rate of 59.7%, and scored only six passing TD's. In 2019, the Tiger offense improved its passer rating to 261.9 (2nd), completion rate 71.3 (2nd), and TD's 34 (2nd). They also didn't turn it over through the air in the red area. First Down Passing The stat that sticks out the most when analyzing the 2019 LSU offense is their 1st down pass efficiency. Let's begin by comparing the change in total offensive run-pass ratio. In 2018 the Tigers threw the football on 40.7% of their total offensive plays. Compare this to the 52% to 48% pass to run ratio in 2019. On first down plays in 2018, the LSU's pass to run ratio 38% pass to 62% run. The 2019 addition on first down, 54% passing to 46% running the football. The aggressive change in philosophy helped open up the offense by keeping defenses on their heels with off-schedule play calls. The Tigers averaged 244 of their 402 yards passing per game on first down throws. LSU's passer rating on first down throws of 216.05 ranked 3rd in the nation. The Tigers attempted 293 first down throws, which also ranked 3rd in the land. The area that benefited the most were on plays of 15 yards or more. The Tigers hit 89 plays of 15 yards or longer 89 times on first down throws, 45 times they hit on plays of 25 yards or more. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube

The Versatility of Personnel Groupings In Football 11 and 12 personnel are versatile in today's football because of the versatility and athleticism of today's RB's and TE's. NFL Teams with a TE like Travis Kelce, or Rob Gronkowski can line up with the TE in line, in the slot, or flexed wide without ever changing their personnel. The same can be said about NFL RB's like CMC, Alvin Kamara, or Saquan Barkley, who are versatile enough to play in the backfield, slot, or flexed out wide, allowing coaches to keep the same personnel on the field regardless of the situation.

The Psychology of sudden change plays in football: We take a closer look at the 2017 New England Patriots vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC title game. What is a Sudden Change Play Sudden change plays are plays that directly impact the momentum of a football game. Coaches often use these limited moments to take advantage of their opponent's potential lack of focus or attention to detail. Examples of Sudden Change Plays Turnovers Special Teams Mistake Kick or Punt Return TD Punt Block, or Kick Block Critical 3rd Down Conversions For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube Click the Embed to Watch the VIdeo

We posted on Instagram this week about tom Brady's pocket presence and his ability to wade through the pressure so that his receivers can complete their routes. In the video below, former NFL QB Jeff Garcia goes through a series of pocket presence drills with some young players. You can check out our Instagram post below where we discuss The Art of Pocket Presence. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube

Everybody knows that Tom Brady walked right into the perfect situation, or did he? I have been bullish on what I believe Tampa Bay can accomplish with Tom Brady under center. There is no doubt that Brady can make a difference, but there are questions that need to be answered. High Impact Play Rate Analysis (Macro-Level Analysis) To begin the evaluation process, we need to examine the 2019 Tampa Bay offensive High Impact Play Rate (HIP Rate). The HIP Rate provides us with a high-level view of the Tampa Bay 2019 offensive performance. The High Impact Play Rate evaluation will allow us to diagnose the successes or failures of the offensive team performance. 2019 Offensive Hip Rate In 2019 the Tampa Bay offense had the 20th ranked offense according to offensive HIP Rate despite the fact that they ranked 4th in scoring offense (28.2 ppg). The obvious negative for the Bucs in 2019, sacks, and turnovers. Tampa Bay led the league in INT's (30) and ranked 12th in sacks given up (47). Explosive Plays Helped Drive The Bucs Offense In a Positive Way Tampa Bay led the league in explosive plays of 20 yards or more (85), and they led in explosive play rate (7.83%). The Bucs found ways to score and hit the home run play and that kept them in a lot of close games. The Interceptions Were the Ultimate Undoing The difference between the Tampa being a playoff-contending team in the NFC South and their 7-9 finish can be laid at the feet of a 30 interception season. The Bucs lost 6 games by one possession in 2019, including 3 of the 9 within 4 points or less. In all 9 of their losses, they averaged 3.22 turnovers per game (fumbles included) vs their 7 wins where they averaged 1.71 turnovers per game. How Can Tom Brady Impact the Tampa Bay Offense in 2020? The acquisition of Tom Brady was the splash move of the NFL offseason. There is no doubt that Brady's leadership and will to win can make a tremendous difference in Tampa Bay. We have completed every play situational analysis covering 2019 Jameis Winston and 2019 Tom Brady. Situational (every play) Analysis (Micro-Level Analysis) Now that we have diagnosed the Tampa Bay offense using our High Impact Play Rate Rate tool, we can dig deeper in search of the details of what could have affected the performance of Jameis Winston and how Tom Brady can make a difference by evaluating the finer micro-level details for each player. The Five Questions That Need Answers Tampa Bay's 2019 OL performance and who is returning The 2019 Tampa Bay OL held their own in pass pro. We graded them as a B average ranking. The left side of the OL performed at the highest level in 2019 with Ali Marpet grading out the highest with a B+ in pass pro. LT Donovan Smith graded out as a B average performer giving up five sacks in 2019, with LG Ali Marpet allowing two sacks and center Ryan Jenson giving up two sacks. The RG Alex Cappa graded out as the worst OL with a C- pass-blocking grade giving up four sacks, while RT Demar Dotson gave up five sacks. Tampa Bay gave up a total of 47 sacks in 2019, with their starting offensive line being charged with allowing 21 total sacks (this includes reserve OL). The remainder of the sacks is credited to the QB for holding onto the football for too long or evacuating the pocket to soon. The effect QB release time can have on the success of an OL. We can already conclude that the Tampa Bay OL is average to above average. They did draft an instant impact player (Tristan Wirfs) from Iowa, who we believe can provide immediate support at RT as a rookie. What we can gain from the film on Jameis Winston is that, on average, he had adequate time to throw. He did attempt the highest number of passes of any QB in 2019 (626). Winston ranked 8th in the NFL in total QB scrambles (31). On 18 of the 31 scrambles, Winston evacuated the pocket too early, often skittish and not giving his receivers a chance even to finish their routes. Jameis faced the 8th most QB pressures in the league (55) tied with Tom Brady. His average QB release time from snap to throw (2.5 sec). Winston faced the league's 8th highest blitz rate of 38.5%. Winston threw into a tight window on 17% of his throws in 2019 and ranked 31st in the NFL in Bad Throw Rate (20.6%) of his throws were into coverage. Winston's on-target throw rate ranked 34th (69.9%). Tom Brady Comparison Analysis Let's compare 2019, Tom Brady, to 2019 Jameis Winston. Let's start with an overview of the 10th ranked New England Offensive High Impact Play Rate (16.44%). The Patriots offense was efficiency but ranked in the top 10 of explosive play rate. They gave up 12 sacks, 9 INT's, and 3 Fumbles. The Converted 38% of their third down plays. Tampa Bay converted 3% more of their third downs compared to New England in 2019. Both teams ranked in the middle of the league and were average on third-down conversion rate in 2019. The Patriots OL was above average to good and graded out as a B+ in pass pro. They yielded the 27th most sacks in the league (28) with 2019 starting OL being charged with 12 of the 28 total sacks. Brady attempted the 4th most pass attempts (613). Brady, who we know is one of the most patient players in the pocket we have ever seen, scrambled out of pocket only three times. Brady does lack mobility in the pocket, but he is the best at feeling the pressure and sidestepping it to buy time, allowing the WR's to finish their routes or find the open area in coverage. Brady faced pressure on 8.97% of his throws (22nd Most). Brady faced the same number of pressure plays as Winston (55). Tom Brady's QB release time of 2.5 is the same as Jameis Winston's release time. Brady had the 4th highest bad throw rate (20.6%) tied with Winston. Brady had the 22nd highest on-target throw rate (23.1%). Winston's on-target rate of 69.9% ranked 34th. A few additional variables that we are taking into account when comparing Brady vs. Winston include 20+ yd high Impact Pass Plays. Winston ranked 1st in the NFL (113) and Brady, who ranked 15th (60). When attempting a pass in a Big Time Moment, such as a key third down, or critical play at a key moment in the game, Winston ranked 8th (19) vs. Tampa Tom, who ranked 12th (18). Did Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich's scheme and play-calling hurt Winston's performance? There is no question that Arians likes to open up the offense and attack the defense vertically. Tampa has the weapons to attack vertically, but did they try to attack vertically too much? After reviewing every Winston INT from 2019, we discovered that the Bucs had at least three or more receivers running vertical routes on 19 of the 30 plays where Winston threw an INT. Also, only 1/3 of the plays where Winston threw an INT provided him with a check down out of the backfield. To add insult to injury, Winston faced a 3, or 4 man rush on 20 out of the 30 plays he threw an INT. Winston made a bad read or a bad throw missing the WR either with an overthrow or behind the receiver on 28 of his 30 INT's. There is no doubt that Brady will improve the INT rate, and that alone will win the Bucs a few more games in 2020. Bruce Arians play-calling might need to include more underneath options and check-downs for Brady as he is an excellent short and intermediate thrower. Brady still has the arm strength to go downfield when needed, and even while lacking weapons in New England, Brady still ranked 9th in the NFL in total intended air yds (4638). Winston by comparison, ranked number one in the NFL (6486). The next closest to Winston in intended air yds, Dak Prescott with 5539 intended air yds in 2019. While Winston still ranked atop the league in completed air yds, he only connected on 50.09% of those air yds amassing 3249 completed air yds. Vs. Tom Brady, who was far less impressive who ranked 20th, connecting on 48% of his intended air yds with 2233. The allure of Tom Brady in Tampa Tom Brady is not the Tom Brady from 16-0 2007 New England Patriots, but this might be the best collection of receivers from the TE position, to the outside and slot receivers that Brady has had since the 2007 season. Brady threw for 50 TD's in 2007, and he also had Randy Moss. There is not a Randy Moss on this current Tampa Bay roster, but they do have Mike Evans, who is one of the top vertical threats in the NFL, Chris Godwin who is one of the best route runners can man the slot but will likely play the Z. Bucs fans and players have a lot to be excited about in 2020 but don't expect 2007 Tom Brady to show up. What We Expect to Happen The numbers tell a story of two very different situations, yet both players had their woes in 2019. Brady lacked a deep threat at WR, while Winston had several vertical threats to choose from yet he often chose a player on the opposite team. Brady brings great leadership and experience to a team that has not reached the playoffs since the year mentioned above that Tom Brady and the Pats went 16-0 in the regular season. Let that sink into your mind. The Bucs not only boast a bevy of young talent on offense but their defense when not placed in bad situations by way of offensive turnovers, were very good in 2019. Brady will do what he does best in his 40's, make great decisions from the pocket, and protect the football even when under pressure. Our expectations are very high in Tampa Bay for the 2020 season because of the addition of Tom Brady. The biggest question to be answered will be how well Tom Brady adapts to Bruce Arians or vice versa. If Arians allows Brady to provide some insight into the playcalling or design, that might be the best route to go. I do not expect the Bucs will come out throwing 113 deep routes in 2020; I do expect them to use the pass to open up the run game, which aside from the offensive line, needs to see big improvements in 2020. We have projected that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are capable of winning the NFC South and reaching the NFC Championship game in 2020. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube

As we begin to project the outcome of the 2020 NFL season, we will start taking a closer look at individual players. Our first 2020 preseason player analysis begins by examining five NFL WR's to watch out for in 2020. We chose these five players based on several variables from QB play, to individual potential based on previous hype, and coaching changes that could help elevate their game to the next level. Pittsburgh WR Diontae Johnson Johnson has been the topic of conversation among fantasy football heads on Twitter in recent days and for a good reason. Johnson has the type of explosive playmaking ability that will allow Steeler fans to move on from AB fully. In 2019, Johnson averaged 8.01 yds per touch (combined rush att and pass targets). He scored two receiving TD's over 40+ yds. Johnson recorded 608 receiving yards on 86 targets (7.91 Yds Per Target, 66th among WR's with 50+ targets). His numbers do not jump off of the page, but his 2019 film proved that he has the ability to be a top WR in the NFL. Johnson played with two different backup QB's in 2019 and will now have the chance to play with Big Ben in 2020. Our early projections have Johnson accumulating 700 receiving yards in 2020 with 5 TD's, but that's a major undersell on his potential. He could quickly produce a 1000 yd receiving season with Big Ben at QB. Baltimore Ravens WR Miles Boykin Boykin didn't really flash his playmaking ability in 2019. But early on in the Ravens 2019 training camp, reports were coming out that Boykin's teammates were comparing him to Michael Thomas. In 2020, there are still high expectations for the young WR in Baltimore, and there are analysts and scouts who believe he will take the next step towards becoming a starting NFL WR. In 2019, Boykin was targeted 22 times, recording 198 receiving yds (9.0 yds per target average). He did record 3 TD catches with one of those TD's going for 40+ yards. Boykin did rank 3rd in ADOT (average depth of Target) at 17.75 yds per among WR's with at least 20 targets or more. Boykin is a physical WR at 6-4 220lbs. He has 33 1/2 arm length, which is longer than that of Michael Thomas (32 1/8). Where Boykin stands out the most is that he runs a 4.42 forty. He has the physical attributes to go along with exceptional speed. If he can become a starter in Baltimore in year two, he will benefit from Lamar Jackson's playmaking ability. Boykin is an outstanding blocker in the run game, and that earned him snaps and opportunities as a rookie. We fully expect Boykin to take the next step and become a fulltime starter in 2020. Kansas City Chiefs WR Demarcus Robinson The Chiefs have a lot of weapons at their disposal, and Demarcus Robinson is a player to be on the lookout for in 2020. The Chiefs resigned Robinson to a one year deal in what feels like a make or break year for the 25-year-old former Florida Gator. In 2019, Robinson recorded 53 Targets for 449 yards and 4 TD's. He averaged 8.47 Yds per Target (42nd among WR's with 50+ Targets). He did rank higher in the yards per reception category (30th) with 14.03 yds per catch just behind fellow teammate Tyreek Hill (14.83). Robinson ranked 67th in Target's success rate (60.38) among WR's with at least 50 targets. Again, Robinson's numbers are not popping off the screen, but the word in 2019 straight from the horse's mouth (andy Reid) was that Robinson and Mahomes have chemistry and work together a lot off of the field in the offseason to improve their games. With Mecole Hardman poised to be the number two, it would not be a surprise if Robinson were to take that next step and absorb the number two role. It appears that the Chiefs are giving him one more shot to prove himself. Carolina Panther ATH Curtis Samuel I listed Samuel as an athlete because he is a "special athlete." While at Ohio State, Samuel had been utilized in a myriad of ways. He played Outside WR, the slot, or the H position at Ohio State. He would line up in the backfield at times and take carries at RB. Samuel is intriguing to me because of the Joe Brady Factor. Joe Brady is the new Offensive Coordinator under first-year NFL Head Coach Matt Rhule in Carolina. While at LSU, Brady coordinated the passing game for the Tigers and improved their offense from average to the Best in college football in just a few short months. Brady has some nice toys to work with at Carolina, and among them is Samuel, who has been somewhat pedestrian when compared to expectations. It will undoubtedly help Samuel if they can keep Teddy Bridgewater upright. In 2019, Samuel recorded 103 targets for 627 yards and 6 TD's. Samuel recorded an additional 130 yards rushing and a 1 TD. Samuel averaged 6.09 yards per target (74th among WR's with 50+ targets). Samuel did rank 12th in ADOT (14.78). His most significant opportunity in 2020 will be limiting drops (7 in 2019), and improving his target success rate of 52.43% (74th among WR's with 50+ targets). Samuel is a burner who recorded a 4.31 40 yard dash at the 2017 NFL Combine. With his combination of elite speed and open-field playmaking ability, it is exciting to think about the different ways Joe Brady will try to get him the football in space. Buffalo Bills WR John Brown Okay, John Brown is not under the radar, and he has had recent success. But with the addition of Stefon Diggs in Buffalo, Brown will be receiving less attention and therefore can expect to get a few more one on one opportunities. In 2019, Brown recorded 1014 yards on 114 targets and 6 TD's. Brown ranked 25th in yards per target (9.30) with an ADOT of 14.64 which ranked 16th among all WR's with 50+ targets. Where he could benefit the most is if Josh Allen improves his deep ball accuracy. Allen ranked at the bottom of the NFL, completing just 25% of throws beyond 20 yards. To make matters worse, Allen completed only 51% of all of his throws in 2019. Brown still has the speed to get behind coverage and will get plenty of opportunities to do so in Buffalo with the addition of Stefon Diggs. If Josh Allen can improve his deep ball accuracy (and that's a big if), you could see another 1000 yard season from John Brown and an additional 1000+ yards from Stefon Diggs. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube

We know the top 5 RB's in the NFL are Christian McCaffrey, Saquan Barkley, Zeke Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry, but what current NFL RB's are poised to take their game to the next level and enter into the top five tier of RB's? Nick Chubb Nick Chubb carried the football 298 times while amassing 1494 rushing yards and 8 TD's in 2019. Chubb has shown he can be a threat as a receiver out of the backfield, picking up 36 receptions on 45 targets and 278 yds in 2019. Chubb ranked 2nd among all backs in the NFL in missed tackle rate (22%), and 2nd overall in forced missed tackles among all backs with at least 100 combined targets and rush attempts. Chubb led the NFL in explosive runs (17) of 15 yds or more. He did fumble three times in 2019, and that is an area he needs to clean up. What does Chubb need to do to become a top 5 RB? He is very close to top-five status in the mainstream, and some have him in the top five. He needs to work on fumbles and continue to grow as a receiver out of the backfield in Cleveland. Josh Jacobs Jacobs had a fantastic rookie season in 2019 rushing 242 times for 1150 yards and 7 TD's. Jacobs had five total 100+ yard rushing games (6th) in 2019. As a receiver, Jacobs picked up 20 receptions on 26 targets for 166 yards. His ability to make you miss in a phone booth allowed him to lead the NFL in total forced missed tackles, and total forced missed tackle rate (29%) among RB's with a combined 100 total receiving targets and rush attempts in 2019. What does Jacobs need to do to become a top 5 RB? Jacobs is on the way to elite status. His ability to make you miss in the smallest of areas will be one of the ways he can be consistent. His usage as a receiver is expected to increase in 2020 and this is where we assume he makes the most significant leap in production and a step towards top-five RB status in the NFL. Dalvin Cook Cook has all the elite skills needed to be a top-five RB. in 2019, Cook amassed 1135 yards on 250 rush att and 13 TDs. As a receiver, he picked up 53 receptions on 62 targets and 519 yds. Cook ranked 15th in forced missed tackle rate (17%). Cooks possesses great vision and elite balance. What does Cook need to do to become a top 5 RB? Cook needs to stay healthy. He amassed his 1135 yards in 14 games a season ago and was on pace for a 285 carry season, which would have placed him in the top 5 of total carries among RB's in 2019. His total volume of 320 in 14 games would have been 356 based on his pe game averages, placing him in the top five of total volume among RB's. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube